Elections (Ch. 12)

Introduction to American Elections

• Importance of elections in the American political system

  • Hallmark of democracy

  • Necessary for hiring individuals to conduct the business of government

• Focus of this lecture:

  • Presidential elections

  • Congressional elections

  • Comparison between the two types of elections

Presidential Elections

• Overview of the process

  • Preceded by the nomination process

  • Political parties (Republicans and Democrats) determine candidates for their ticket

• The nomination process

  • Takes place in primaries and caucuses across the 50 states

  • Begins in January and culminates in the general election in November

  • Important dates:

  • Start in January

  • Concludes with the parties' nominating conventions, usually in August

Primaries and Caucuses

• Definition of primaries

  • Objective: Win for the candidate

  • Winning a primary results in acquiring delegates

• Delegate allocation

  • Each state has a certain number of delegates proportional to its population

  • Example: California has the most delegates; smaller states like Delaware or Wyoming have fewer

Types of Primaries

1. Winner-Take-All Primary

   • Definition: The candidate with the most votes wins all the state's delegates

   • Predominantly used by the Republican Party

   • Impact: Leads to faster nomination processes

2. Proportional Primary

   • Definition: Delegates are allocated based on the percentage of votes received

   • Used by the Democratic Party

   • Example:

     • Candidate A receives 50% of the vote, gets 50% of delegates

     • Candidate B receives 20%, gets 20% of delegates

   • Result: Often leads to slower nomination processes due to distribution of delegates among multiple candidates

• Importance of winning delegates

  • A candidate typically needs to have the most delegates to secure the nomination

Nominating Conventions

• Purpose of conventions

  • Formal nomination of party candidates

• Shift from past conventions

  • Historically significant and unpredictable

  • Today, conventions are more ceremonial as the nominee is often clear beforehand

  • Modern conventions regarded as "pep rallies"

• Role of Superdelegates in the Democratic Party

  • Definition: High-profile party members who can vote independently of primary results

  • Controversial aspect: Can override delegate count if the front-runner does not reach the required delegate count

  • Example:

  • Required number of delegates for Democratic nomination is approximately 1,900

  • Scenario: Candidate has 1,800 delegates due to proportional allocation, but superdelegates can push another candidate above the threshold

Congressional Elections

• Overview of the election process post-nomination

• Key differences from presidential elections

  • Generally lower voter turnout for congressional elections

  • Lack of name recognition for congressional candidates compared to presidential candidates

Key Concepts in Congressional Elections

1. Incumbency

   • Definition: An incumbent is a politician holding office and seeking reelection

   • High rates of incumbency:

     • House of Representatives: 85-90% reelection rate

     • Senate: 60-75% reelection rate

   • Explanation of high re-election rates:

     • Incumbents provide services to constituents

     • Greater media visibility

     • Easier access to campaign funding

2. Challenges to Incumbency

   • Circumstances under which incumbents can lose elections:

     • Redistricting

     • Definition: Redrawing of congressional district lines every ten years post-census

     • Process is susceptible to manipulation (gerrymandering)

     • Example methods of gerrymandering:

       • Diluting votes of opposing party by distributing them across multiple districts

   • Midterm Elections

     • Definition: Elections in the middle of a presidential term

     • Tendency for incumbents from the president's party to face difficult challenges, especially during unpopular presidencies

     • Historical example: 2018 midterms, where many Republican incumbents lost due to dissatisfaction with President Trump

   • Scandals

     • Scandals can lead to electoral loss but are not always definitive

Safe Seats and Red/Blue Districts

• Definition of safe seats

  • Districts that consistently favor one political party

• Effects on incumbents

  • Challenges primarily come from within the same party during primaries rather than from opposing party

  • Increased partisanship due to ideological challengers within the same party

  • Example: Republican incumbents may face challenges from more conservative candidates, leading to incumbents aligning even more rightward to fend off primary challenges

Conclusion of the Lecture

• Summary of presidential and congressional elections

• Next lecture topic: Voter behavior in elections