Trends and Strategies in Elite College Admissions

Changing Demographics in College Admissions

• The population of students from privileged backgrounds (those whose parents or grandparents attended college) is currently in a "steady state."

• Current increases in application numbers are driven primarily by students from less privileged backgrounds.

• The "demographic cliff"—a predicted decline in the number of graduating high school seniors—is manifesting differently across institutions:

  • Popular and famous colleges are not seeing a drop in application numbers.

  • Less popular or less famous colleges are experiencing the primary impact of the demographic decline.

• Despite a potential decrease in the overall pool of US students, the number of applications per student is increasing, meaning individuals are applying to a higher volume of schools.

• While total applications filed this year may not increase as drastically as in previous years due to the cliff, millions of applications continue to compete for the same number of seats.

The Population Paradox: Part A vs. Part B

• Part A: The population of high school graduates. This number is dropping.

• Part B: The population of students choosing to apply to college and the total number of applications they submit. This number continues to rise slightly.

• Early application trends are dominated by highly motivated students chasing selective and highly selective institutions.

• While indicators may flatten by the end of the admissions cycle in May, current data suggests popular colleges remain more sought-after than predicted.

Strategic Early Application Pathways

• Early Decision (ED): Binding nature. Students apply to one school and must attend if accepted, withdrawing all other applications. Acceptance rates are typically higher in exchange for this commitment.

• Early Action (EA): Non-binding. Students apply early to receive an earlier decision but are not obligated to attend.

• Restrictive Early Action (REA): Non-binding but restrictive. Usually, students can only apply to one school via this method.

• Early Decision 0 (ED0): A marketing strategy used by some schools (e.g., University of Chicago) where students who attend their summer program receive early notification before ED1 deadlines.

• Early Decision 2 (ED2): A second round of binding early applications (e.g., Emory, Johns Hopkins, NYU, Vanderbilt) typically for students who were not accepted to their ED1 choice.

Early Pool Statistics and Key Trends

• First-Generation Students: Massive increase in the early application pool.

• Continuing Group (Legacy/Non-First-Gen): Stayed flat for the first time in a significant period; this is viewed as an indicator of the demographic cliff among domestic high school graduates.

• International Students: Dropped by $9\%$. This is attributed to:

  • Fear regarding visa acquisition.

  • Perception of the United States as less welcoming.

  • Increased marketing efforts from Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia.

• Standardized Testing: Testing is "back." $54\%$ of applicants submitted test scores this year, an increase of $11\%$ over the previous year.

• Gender Gap: The number of women applying to college is significantly higher than men. Men are increasingly choosing technical schools and see less value in traditional college education compared to a decade ago.

• Application Volume: Roughly $2,000,000$ early applications were submitted to selective and highly selective schools.

The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Admissions

• Colleges are using AI for functional and quantitative tasks, not qualitative screening.

• AI-driven tasks include:

  • Computing GPA according to specific institutional formulas.

  • Organizing testing algorithms.

  • Creating academic scores based on approved institutional algorithms.

• Humans still conduct qualitative reviews (reading essays and assessing personality/fit).

• Admissions readers are becoming skilled at identifying AI-crafted essays, which are often noted as generic or too elegantly written. "Authentic storytelling" remains the primary driver of successful outcomes.

Acceptance Rates and Institutional Strategy

• Rate Drops: Institutions like MIT and Tulane saw significant drops in admit rates due to increases in early application volume.

• Class Filling via ED: Schools like Emory and Washington University in St. Louis (WashU) use Early Decision to fill more than half of their incoming classes. These schools often use ED to secure their class because they compete with higher-ranked institutions like Dartmouth, Penn, and Vanderbilt.

• Legal Challenges: A lawsuit has been filed to declare Early Decision illegal, arguing it is a monopolistic behavior that forces minors into contracts and lacks equity. It is predicted that ED may be struck down or significantly altered within the next two years.

Residency, Citizenship, and Geographic Context

• Selective and highly selective schools generally target between $15\%$ and $20\%$ for international (non-US citizen) enrollment.

• Citizenship vs. Location:

  • A US citizen attending school in China is treated as a domestic applicant but read by an "Asia expert" who understands the local context.

  • A non-US citizen attending school in the USA is treated as an international applicant.

• Dual citizens are advised to identify as US citizens to enter the larger domestic applicant pool.

Demonstrated Interest and Deferred Applications

• Famous/Public Schools: Generally do not track demonstrated interest.

• Private/Others: Schools like TCU, SMU, and Reed do track interest. This can be shown by:

  • Applying early (most powerful).

  • Opening emails.

  • Visiting campus.

  • Attending online seminars or school visits with reps.

• Common Dataset: A document for each school that explicitly lists whether they use demonstrated interest as an admissions factor.

• Deferrals: Being deferred from ED/EA to regular decision is not a rejection; it allows the school to meet the candidate a second time. Students should only provide precisely what the school asks for (e.g., first-semester grades) and avoid over-communicating.

Geopolitical Mandates in Public Universities

• Public flagship universities have in-state enrollment targets dictated by local politics and taxes.

• In-State vs. Out-of-State Targets:

  • UT Austin: Mandated to take roughly $90\%$ in-state students.

  • University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign: Comfortable with $40\%$ out-of-state.

  • University of Maryland: Comfortable with $40\%$ out-of-state.

  • University of Michigan: Target is roughly $40\%-45\%$ out-of-state.

• There is often a discrepancy between "published" admit rates and "actual" admit rates because these schools want to attract as many applicants as possible to increase revenue and rankings.

The Rise of QuestBridge and Diversity Strategies

• Following the Supreme Court ruling ending race-based admissions, schools are using QuestBridge as a primary mechanism to ensure diversity.

• QuestBridge identifies high-achieving low-income, first-generation, and multi-ethnic students via a rigorous multi-round process.

• Households typically earn less than $65,000$ per year with minimal assets.

• Selective schools have doubled or tripled their QuestBridge intake. Harvard and Cornell recently joined or increased participation (Cornell in 2025).

Admissions Math: The "Normie" Acceptance Rate

• Using Dartmouth as a case study for early pool breakdown:

  • Total Early Admits: $606$

  • QuestBridge: $136$

  • Recruited Athletes: $200$

  • Institutional Priorities (Donors, VIPs, Legacy): $50$

  • Remaining spots for "Normies": $220$

• The actual "normie" admit rate for Dartmouth Early Decision was approximately $7\%$, which is only marginally higher than the $6\%$ regular decision rate. This suggests that for some schools, the statistical advantage of ED is an illusion for general applicants.

Community College and Alternative Pathways

• Transferring from a Community College (CC) to a University of California (UC) school is a viable and often easier path to entry at Berkeley or UCLA than applying as a freshman.

• CC Honors programs in California have very high success rates for selective transfers.

• The final diploma does not distinguish between a 4-year student and a transfer student.

Competitive Specialized Programs: BS/MD

• Bachelor of Science/Doctor of Medicine (BS/MD) programs are exceptionally difficult to enter.

• Example: Sienna/Albany Medical School has roughly $17$ slots; $10$ are reserved for New Yorkers and $1$ for a Coptic Christian, leaving very few for general applicants out of hundreds or thousands of files.

• High performance requirements are often mandatory for the "guaranteed" medical school spot, which would likely have earned the student entry to med school regardless.

Questions and Discussion

• Q: Does legacy matter?

• A: It depends on the school. At the University of Chicago, it is useful if the student connects their personal journey to the school's unique academic culture through the legacy lens.

• Q: How much does a donation cost to guarantee admission?

• A: At Ivy League schools, it is estimated at $10,000,000$ to $15,000,000$. At other schools, it may be $1,000,000$ to $2,000,000$. This must be handled via the development office at least a year in advance to avoid "pay to play" optics.

• Q: Are SAT and ACT viewed differently?

• A: No, they are considered virtually identical by all majors and institutions currently.

• Q: How do highly selective schools view neurodiversity (ADHD/Autism)?

• A: Admit rates are exceptionally low unless there is a dedicated neurodiversity institute on campus. However, specific subjects like math or physics may find advantages in the neurodiverse worldview.