Knocking at the College Door – Condensed Exam Notes

Overview

• WICHE’s 11ᵗʰ edition projects U.S. high-school graduate numbers through $2041$.
• National peak ≈ $3.8{-}3.9$ million graduates in $2025$; steady slide to <3.4 million (≈$-13\%$) by $2041$.
• Drivers: sharp birth-rate fall beginning $2007$, marginal fertility uptick $2021$ insufficient to alter trend.
• Four-year public ACGR lifted from $80\%$ (2010) to $87\%$ (2022); would need >95\% by $2041$ to offset birth decline—unlikely.

National Highlights

• Compared with $2023$:
  • $38$ states project graduate losses by $2041$ (7 lose >20\%).
  • Five populous states (CA, IL, MI, NY, PA) generate ~$\tfrac34$ of total national drop.
• Graduate counts diverge from prior (2020) edition by ≈$-1\%$ in $2037$ (≈$-750{,}000$ cum.).

Demographic Shifts (Public Schools)

• White: $1.6\,M \to 1.2\,M$ ( $-26\%$; share $47\%\to39\%$ ).
• Hispanic: $0.94\,M \to 1.10\,M$ ( $+16\%$; share $27\%\to36\%$ ).
• Black: $0.48\,M \to 0.37\,M$ ( $-22\%$ ).
• Asian+NH/OPI (combined): ~flat ( $-10\%$ through $2041$ ); Asians projected $+4\%$ to $2034$; NH/OPI $-6\%$.
• American Indian/Alaska Native: $-41\%$ to <18{,}000 (exclusive ID; larger numbers captured in Multiracial/Hispanic).
• Multiracial: $0.13\,M \to 0.21\,M$ ( $+68\%$; share $3\%\to7\%$ ).

Regional Outlook

• West: tracks nation; $-20\%$ by $2041$ (CA alone $-29\%$).
• South: modest growth then plateau; $+3\%$ overall, led by FL, TN, SC, DC; Hispanic surpasses White by $2038$.
• Midwest: uniform decline $-16\%$ (IL $-32\%$ worst).
• Northeast: steady shrink $-17\%$; NY $-27\%$.

Urban–Rural Patterns (12ᵗʰ-Grade Enrollment)

• $2022{-}23\to2033{-}34$ change:
  • City $-97{,}000$
  • Suburb $+32{,}000$
  • Town $+6{,}000$
  • Rural $+44{,}000$

COVID-19 Effects

• Public+private grades 1-12: ≈$600{,}000$ fewer students in $2022{-}23$ vs pre-COVID projection; largest gaps in grades 1-5.
• High-school graduates through $2028$ within $\pm2\%$ of 2020 forecast; post-2028 cohorts lower due to pipeline shrink.
• Causes: surge in homeschooling (~¼ of decline), chronic absenteeism (≥10 % of days missed), reduced net immigration (fell to $\approx 376{,}000$ in $2021$).

Implications & Levers

• Maintain college entrant volume despite $-10\%$ grad drop: raise immediate matriculation from $62\%$ (2022) to $\approx68\%$.
• Evidence-based actions:
  • Cut total cost via state–federal aid, OER, benefits navigators, Promise programs.
  • Intensive high-school advising (ideal caseload $\le250$), direct-admit & FAFSA simplification.
  • Wraparound college supports (e.g., CUNY ASAP doubled $3\text{-}yr$ grad rate).
  • Credit for Prior Learning boosts adult completion by $17\%$.
  • Targeted strategies for under-served groups (Hispanic, Black, rural males, etc.).
• Address K-12 learning loss (students ≈1 yr behind) & chronic absenteeism; failure risks further graduation-rate erosion.

Key Numbers to Memorize

• National peak $2025$: $\sim3.9\,M$ grads.
• National $2041$: $\sim3.4\,M$ grads ( $-13\%$ vs peak ).
• Region 2041 vs 2023: West $-20\%$, Midwest $-16\%$, Northeast $-17\%$, South $+3\%$.
• White $-26\%$, Hispanic $+16\%$, Multiracial $+68\%$ by $2041$.
• Graduation-rate requirement to offset decline: >95\% on-time completion by $2041$.