Webinar Notes: Is There a Religious Revival? Wishful Thinking vs. Empirical Data

Introduction and Participant Overview

• Host Institutions: The webinar is co-presented by the Nonreligion in a Complex Future (NCF) project at the University of Ottawa and the Center for Studies in Religion and Society at the University of Victoria.
• Land Acknowledgement: The NCF project acknowledges the Algonquin people as traditional guardians of the unseeded territory in Ottawa and pays respect to traditional knowledge keepers, both young and old, and courageous leaders of the past, present, and future.
• Panelists:     * Conrad Hackett: Associate Director of Research and Senior Demographer at Pew Research Center.     * Kati Turvoniemela: Professor in Practical Theology at the University of Eastern Finland.     * Joel Thiessen: Professor of Sociology at Ambrose University.     * Sarah Wilkins-Laflamme: Associate Professor of Sociology at the University of Waterloo.     * David Voas: Emeritus Professor of Social Science at University College London.
• Moderator: Lori Beamon, Professor in the Department of Classics and Religious Studies at the University of Ottawa and Director of the NCF project.

Defining and Critiquing the Concept of 'Religious Revival'

• Media Narrative: There has been a significant surge in media reports from outlets such as The New York Times, Washington Post, The Guardian, National Post, Wall Street Journal, and The Conversation claiming a religious revival is underway.
• Lack of Technical Definition: Conrad Hackett notes that social scientists do not have a standard technical definition for when a "revival" is officially in place. While churches grow locally in any given year, this does not necessarily aggregate to national-level increases in religious identification or worship attendance.
• Formally Defining Revival: Sarah Wilkins-Laflamme defines a religious revival as a meaningful, sustained increase in levels of religiosity among a population that previously had lower levels of religiosity.
• Historical Precedents: Sarah Wilkins-Laflamme points out that the narrative of a revival is often cyclical. For example, the Millennial generation was once heralded as the "most open to spirituality," yet they became the least religious generation observed in many Western countries.

General Skepticism and Evidence of Decline

• The Muslim Heritage Parallel: David Voas compares current claims to the supposed Muslim youth revival in Europe $15$ years ago. While more young women wearing the hijab suggested a resurgence, comprehensive investigation showed no net change in religiosity across generations; instead, there was greater "dispersion" (people at both the highly religious and highly secular ends of the scale).
• Canadian Statistics: According to Sarah Wilkins-Laflamme, Statistics Canada ($StatsCan$) data from the $2023$ General Social Survey shows that all religiosity indicators for individuals aged $15$ to $24$ are down from pre-pandemic levels in $2018$.
• Church of England Data: David Voas critiques the "Rise in Christian Conversions" narrative using Church of England statistics:     * Total attendance, baptisms, and confirmations are well below $2019$ levels.     * Infant and child baptisms (specifically under age $5$) fell by nearly $8,000$ between $2023–2024$ and by nearly $30,000$ since $2019$.     * The current number of infant baptisms is approximately half of the $2019$ figure.     * While adult baptisms increased by more than $1,000$ in $2024$ compared to $2023$, Voas argues this is a small boost overshadowed by the "quiet quitting" of tens of thousands of young adults choosing not to christen their children.
• United States Trends: Conrad Hackett reports that Gallup data on belief in God in the U.S. shows a steady decline over time. Pew Research evidence does not support a national surge in traditional Catholic or Orthodox church attendance.

The Finnish Exception: A Case of Counter-Cultural Interest

• Unexpected Longitudinal Data: Kati Turvoniemela notes that for $20$ years, research in Finland showed linear decline. However, around $2020$, a change occurred among the youngest generation (born after $1996$).
• Gender Divergence: Among young men in Finland (the youngest cohort), the share of those identifying as Christian is increasing rather than following the traditional pattern of decline. Young women show a less clear but similarly non-declining pattern.
• Belief in Resurrection: Longitudinal surveys of Lutheran confirmants (comprising approximately $72\%$ of Finnish youth) show that while belief that "Jesus has risen from the dead" had been declining for both boys and girls, the last few years have seen an increase in belief, particularly among young men.
• Markers of Practice: Beyond belief, recent data from $2024$ and $2025$ show increased willingness among Finnish youth to pray, attend church activities, and volunteer.
• Reasoning for the Shift: Turvoniemela suggests that because non-religiousness has become the "default" societal expectation, Christianity has become attractive as a minority, counter-cultural identity that offers stability in a world of crisis.

Factors Sustaining the Revival Narrative

• Scientific Literacy Crisis: Conrad Hackett argues there is a crisis in how the public and media interpret surveys. Many "revival" reports rely on "opt-in online polls" that are not credible or representative. These polls often misrepresent rare behaviors (like churchgoing among youth) as major trends.
• The "Man Bites Dog" Story: David Voas explains that "revival" is a compelling news story because it contradicts the status quo. It is a "good news" story for religious organizations to promote.
• Confirmation Bias: Joel Thiessen suggests religious leaders take anecdotes of local growth (pockets of vitality) and extrapolate them into massive social shifts. They seek the prestige of science to validate their internal narratives.
• Methodological Flaws: Reports like the "Quiet Revival" by the Bible Society often use only two data points (e.g., $2018$ vs. $2024$) without releasing underlying data or undergoing peer review. David Voas describes this as an attempt to have the "respect of science without doing science."
• Algorithmic Influence: Social media algorithms amplify tiny interests. If a young person engages with any religious content, the algorithm generates a feed of similar content, creating an illusory "revival" for that individual.

The Impact of Technology and Crisis

• Social Media as a Modality: Discussion centers on "remix culture" (mixing/matching ideas) and whether online engagement is a substitute or supplement for traditional practice. Generally, those active online are also the most active in person.
• Crisis and Pessimism: Youth face global crises (pandemic, war in Ukraine, climate change). While some argue these drive people toward religion for stability, David Voas remains skeptical, noting that previous generations (e.g., during the Vietnam War) faced similar crises without a sustained religious return.
• Online Presence vs. Conversion: Joel Thiessen notes that religious leaders often naively believe streaming services will lead to mass conversions of those with no religious background. Most data suggests streaming primarily reaches those already affiliated.

Questions & Discussion

• Question (Matt Sheedy and Brian Pollock): How does "remix culture" and online modality factor into religious categorization and measurement, given traditional census boxes might not capture them?     * Response: Sarah Wilkins-Laflamme notes that surveys are trying to capture online usage, but it is often just a different modality for the already-religious. There is also a "pollution of the concept of religion" via negative media (e.g., cult documentaries on Netflix) affecting students.
• Question (Penny): Is there evidence for communal, ritualistic revivals like the Asbury Seminary event in Kentucky?     * Response: David Voas acknowledges events like Asbury are real but isolated. Unless there were dozens of such events, they do not constitute a population-level revival. Joel Thiessen adds that we must look at the micro, meso, and macro levels; an event might be a revival at the meso (institutional) level without showing up at the macro (national) level.
• Question (Inge): What about the narrative that this revival is specifically to "traditional" or "Orthodox" forms of religion (e.g., Latin Mass)?     * Response: Conrad Hackett notes reports of people returning to Orthodox traditions, but national data do not yet show a surge. Kati Turvoniemela observes that traditional groups do more loudly attract young people, but interest exists across the spectrum.
• Closing Remark (Joel Thiessen): While being critical, it is important to note that not all media or religious leaders lack scientific literacy; there is heterogeneity within these groups.