Russia’s War in Ukraine: Background, Causes, and Impact on Europe

Historical Background and Deep-Rooted Connectivity

• Foundational Ties: Russia and Ukraine share a deep historical, cultural, and spiritual connection.     * They are bound by a common faith (Orthodox Christianity), common heritage, and similar Slavic languages.     * Core of the State: The first Russian state, known as "Kievan Russ," (or Kievan Rus') had its central core in Kiev.

• Geographic and Identity Perceptions:     * Vladimir Putin and various historical Russian perspectives assert that while Ukraine may possess its own national identity, it has geographically and historically always been a part of Russia.     * Over several centuries, Russia maintained a specific "attachment" to Ukraine, viewing the territory as an integral and inseparable part of the Russian nation.     * Territorial Growth (1613–1914): Historical maps illustrate the expansion of the Russian Empire, including territories such as Bukhara, Khabarovsk, and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, with Ukraine featuring as a central component of this imperial growth through periods including $1645$, $1676$, $1725$, $1796$, $1825$, $1855$, and $1914$.

The Soviet Era and the "Breadbasket" of the USSR

• Constituent Republic Status: Ukraine was a founding constituent republic of the Soviet Union from its inception in $1922$ until the dissolution of the USSR in $1991$.

• Economic Role: For decades, Ukraine was characterized as the "breadbasket" of the Soviet Union due to its highly productive agricultural output.

• Resistance and Sovietisation:     * Accession to the Soviet Union was not universally accepted by the Ukrainian population.     * Resistance movements fought against the nationalization of the economy, the "Sovietisation" of Ukrainian culture, and the forced collectivization of agriculture.

• The Holodomor (1932–1933):     * A massive man-made famine occurred during this period as a result of Soviet policies.     * Millions of Ukrainians died from starvation, leaving a lasting scar on the national consciousness.

Post-Soviet Independence and the Nuclear Question

• Independence (1991): Following the disintegration of the Soviet Union on August 24, $1991$, Ukraine established itself as an independent sovereign state.

• Sphere of Influence: Despite independence, the Ukrainian leadership initially remained under significant Russian influence, and the country was considered firmly within the Russian sphere of influence.

• Nuclear Disarmament:     * After the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine became the third-largest holder of nuclear weapons in the world.     * The state possessed the physical warheads and the manufacturing capacity; however, the software required for control remained under Moscow's authority.     * The Budapest Memorandum (1994):         * Western states and Russia agreed to recognize and respect Ukraine's independent and sovereign status.         * In exchange, Ukraine agreed to the destruction of its warheads or the transfer of its nuclear capacity to Russia.

Political Shifts: The Orange and Maidan Revolutions

• The Orange Revolution (2004):     * Sparked by presidential elections, this movement signaled a move toward European integration and a waning of Russian influence.     * Mass street demonstrations led to the defeat of the Putin-backed candidate, Viktor Yanukovych, and the victory of the pro-Western candidate, Viktor Yushchenko.

• The Yanukovych Era and EU Association:     * Viktor Yanukovych was eventually elected five years later, but he attempted to balance relations between Europe and Russia.     * The EU Deal vs. Russian Pact: Ukraine was offered an Association Agreement with the European Union (EU). Putin countered this with a separate Russian economic offer.     * Yanukovych eventually ditched the EU deal in favor of the Russian economic pact, leading many Ukrainians to feel "sold out."

• The Maidan Revolution (Euromaidan) (2014):     * Protests in Kiev against Yanukovych’s decision were met with a brutal government response, sparking a full revolution.     * The government collapsed, and Yanukovych and his inner circle fled the country.

• The Russian Reaction (2014):     * Putin viewed the collapse of the Yanukovych regime as a major blow and sought to "make an example" of Ukraine.     * Annexation of Crimea: Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula in $2014$.     * Significance of Crimea: Crimea was historically part of Russia and was "gifted" to Ukraine by Nikita Khrushchev in $1964$ (Soviet era). Its loss was felt acutely by Russians, and its annexation caused Putin’s approval ratings to surge.     * Donbas Conflict: Putin encouraged pro-Russian separatist uprisings in the Southeast (Donbas region) to distract from domestic issues and established a new source of legitimacy through conflict with the West.

Putin’s Ideological Framework: "On the Historical Unity"

• The 2021 Essay: Shortly before the $2022$ invasion, Putin published a paper titled "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians."     * It is mandatory reading for the Russian military.

• Key Arguments:     * Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians are "one people" belonging to a "triune Russian nation."     * Ukraine is an "anti-Russia project" manufactured by external forces and Soviet administrative decisions.     * He questions the legitimacy of Ukraine’s contemporary borders, claiming they occupy historically Russian lands.     * He characterizes an independent, pro-Western Ukraine as equivalent to the use of "weapons of mass destruction" against ethnic Russians.

The 2022 Full-Scale Invasion

• Launch Date: February 24, $2022$.

• Initial Action: Recognition of the breakaway republics in Donbas and the launch of a "military operation" to protect ethnic Russians.

• Warnings: Putin warned that any interference from external powers would lead to consequences "never experienced in your history."

• Territorial Statistics:     * Ukraine: Area of $603,500\,\text{km}^2$ ($233,000\,\text{sq mi}$); 2016 population estimate of $42,539,010$. Capital: Kiev.     * Republic of Crimea: Area of $26,081\,\text{km}^2$ ($10,100\,\text{sq mi}$); 2014 population estimate of $1,912,168$. Capital: Simferopol.     * Luhansk People's Republic (LPR): 2016 census population of $497,170$.     * Donetsk People's Republic (DPR): 2017 census population of $2,302,669$.

Major Justifications for Invasion

1. Preventing NATO Accession:     * Russia views NATO’s eastward expansion as an existential threat.     * The Bucharest Summit (2008): The prospect of Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO was declared a "red line" by Russia.     * Ukraine acts as a buffer between Russia and four NATO members.

2. Preventing EU Ties:     * Accession to the EU is deemed unacceptable. Russia had already seen three former Soviet republics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and six former Warsaw Pact nations (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria) join the Union.

3. "Denazification":     * Claims of cleansing "Nazi elements" and removing the Zelensky "puppet regime."     * Targeting the "Azov" nationalist regiment.

4. Defending Russian Pride:     * Putin called the USSR collapse the "greatest catastrophe of the 20th century."     * Aims to reconstruct the Soviet sphere of influence and rival the United States as a global superpower, often drawing parallels to Peter the Great.

Global Impact and Major Stakes

• Geopolitical: Realignment of international alliances and spheres of influence.

• Economic: Severe disruption of global markets.

• Energy Crisis: Impact on European energy security and gas supplies from Russia.

• Food Concerns: Disruptions to the global food supply chain, given Ukraine's status as a major agricultural exporter.