Modelling

Computer Modelling

Any activity that involves using software abstractions to represent a real or virtual problem.

Model

A block of code or logic that takes in an argument or multiple arguments and returns a result or set of results.

Scenarios

Scenarios are conditions or situations in the environment that can change.

Simulation

Refers to running a model to allow different scenarios to be tested

Example: Public Health Model - COVID-19 Pandemic

Used extensively to support the case for imposing social distancing, self-isolation, business closures, lock-down and other restrictions. Alos helped governments to make policy decisions on how and when restrictions could be lifted.

Agent Based Modelling

  • Involves building models to simulate the actions and interactions of individual agents within an environment.

  • Agents are autonomous and independant of eachother and the environment. This means the environment contains multiple models, each of which is an agent.

  • ABM allows us to simulate the behaviour of the agents to investigate how specific attributes of an agent may affect other agents or the environment as a whole.

Examples:

  • Investigating how cancer tissues develop as a result of the behaviour of individual cells.

  • To predict how forest fires will spread depending on the distances between pockets of fire.

  • To analyse the spread of epidemic using the behaviour of infected people.

  • Supply chains

  • Sales forecasting

  • Social media usage

  • Logistical systems

  • Adoption of new technology

Benefits of ABM:

  • Can help to describe complex evironments by applying a simple set of rules to each individuals behaviour.

  • Companies or goverments can develop ABMs to test specific scenarios before they happen.

  • Can be quite easy to work out a basic set of rules for an agent, even in a very complex environment.

  • Can be used for simulations to examine emergent behaviours.

Emergent Behaviours

Behaviours that are observed in the environment as a whole but that are not observed in the individual agents.