Population Dynamics, Migration, and Policies

Population Dynamics and Migration

Negative Natural Increase and Population Shrinkage

A negative natural increase (where deaths exceed births) can exacerbate population shrinkage caused by net migration (more people leaving than entering). During 2010-2020, several European nations experienced both negative natural increase and net migration, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Poland, Portugal, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, and Romania.

Migration Drivers

Migration is driven by various factors:

  • Economic Opportunities: Migrant workers seek jobs, education, and family reunification (e.g., Bangladesh, Nepal, Philippines).
  • Violence and Insecurity: Conflict and instability drive migration in countries like Syria, Venezuela, and Myanmar.

Economic Impacts of International Migration

  • Benefits for Migrants: Immigrants often find themselves financially better off in their host country despite typically being employed in lower-paying, low-skilled occupations, and earning less on average than natives.
  • Challenges for Less-Skilled Natives: Competition from immigrants may negatively impact the income and job prospects of less-skilled native workers.
  • Cultural Shifts: Immigration significantly alters the cultural and racial makeup of receiving countries due to the increased proportion of immigrants in the population.

Measuring Migration

Immigration Rate

The immigration rate is calculated as the number of immigrants arriving at a destination per 1,000 people in that destination per year.

Immigration\ rate = \frac{Number\ of\ Immigrants}{Total\ Population\ at\ Destination} \times 1,000

Emigration Rate

The emigration rate is the number of emigrants departing from an area of origin per 1,000 people in that area of origin per year.

Emigration\ rate = \frac{Number\ of\ Emigrants}{Total\ Population\ at\ Origin} \times 1,000

Net Migration Rate (NMR)

The net migration rate reflects the balance between immigration and emigration in an area, expressed as an increase or decrease per 1,000 people in the area per year.

Net\ Migration\ Rate = \frac{Number\ of\ Immigrants - Number\ of\ Emigrants}{Total\ Population\ at\ Destination} \times 1,000

Case Example

Country A has 350,000 immigrants and 60,000 emigrants. The total population is 110,000,000. The NMR is:

NMR = \frac{350,000 - 60,000}{110,000,000} \times 1,000 = 2.6

This implies a net migration rate of 2.6 per 1,000 people.

Reflective Questions

  1. Why is the world population distribution uneven?
  2. What are the opportunities and challenges of international migration?
  3. What are the impacts of international migration?

Population Policies

Definition

Population policies are government actions, declarations, choices, and measures, either explicit or implicit, aimed at influencing population size, growth, distribution, and composition. These policies affect individual and family decisions regarding marriage, childbearing, job arrangements, and residence.

Objectives

The core objectives of population policies include promoting economic development and social/individual welfare.

Historical vs. Current Focus

  • Historically: Pro-natalist policies focused on restricting emigration and stimulating immigration.
  • Currently: Anti-natalist policies concentrate on restricting immigration, encouraging redistribution, prolonging survival, and reducing birth rates.

Key Elements

  • Identifying socioeconomic and demographic problems.
  • Assessing and implementing population policies at the national level to address these problems.

Direct vs. Indirect Population Policies

DIRECT OR EXPLICITINDIRECT OR IMPLICIT
DefinitionGovernment actions for demographic outcomes.Government decisions/actions with indirect demographic effects.
ExamplesFree family planning services, increased taxes for each additional child, migration laws, raising the age of marriage.Compulsory secondary education, restricting child labor, limiting house sizes, promoting female education, providing old-age security.

Implementation

Governments address population policies by:

  1. Gathering demographic data through censuses, civil registration systems, and surveys.
  2. Developing and executing specific public health and population policies concerning mortality, fertility, and migration.

Policies on Population Migration and Distribution

Migration and urbanization influence spatial distribution, density, and strain on agriculture, natural resources, and the environment. Population plans manage urbanization and internal migration issues.

Government Measures

  1. Encouraging population redistribution from densely populated urban areas to smaller urban, suburban, and rural areas.
  2. Decreasing migration from rural to urban areas and major urban agglomerations.
  3. Ensuring access to basic services and infrastructure for the urban poor.
  4. Addressing environmental sustainability by preventing unintended pregnancies through family planning programs.
  5. Addressing environmental sustainability by improving road safety and promoting public transportation.
  6. Promoting settlement of under-populated areas.
  7. Relocating population out of environmentally fragile or threatened areas.

Population Growth Trends and Challenges

Global Growth

World population has grown rapidly due to agrarian, industrial, and medical improvements. There is a 27% chance that population growth may plateau or decline before 2100.

Challenges in Less Developed Countries (LDCs)

Rapid population growth in LDCs causes:

  • Increased food demand
  • Higher unemployment
  • Challenges in poverty eradication
  • Congested social services
  • Potential for violence

Demographic Dividend

Fertility reductions can lead to a larger working-age population, enabling quicker economic growth. Governments must invest in education and health, especially for young people, and foster long-term economic growth conditions to benefit from this dividend.

Issues in Industrialized Countries

Low birth rates in industrialized countries result in slower growth and an older average population. This leads to fewer working-age people compared to older people, causing a low potential support ratio.

International Migration

International migration is a major component of population change. Europe, Northern America, and Australia/New Zealand are net recipients, while Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean are net senders.

Addressing Inequalities

Explicit and implicit population policies can address inequalities between demographic changes and socioeconomic goals. Urbanization and internal migration must also be addressed in these policies.

Review Questions

True/False

  1. False: The average number of live births per woman is lower in Europe than in Sub-Saharan Africa.
  2. True: A demographic dividend occurs when a falling birth rate changes the age distribution.
  3. True: General Fertility Rate measures the number of live births in a year per thousand women of reproductive age.

Multiple Choice

  1. D: In the first stage of the demographic transition model, countries exhibit population growth with high fertility and mortality rates.
  2. D: The low death rate among young people in less developed countries is due to the provision of medical facilities, piped water, improved housing, and the spread of education, as well as controlling diseases.
  3. C: Promoting female education and raising the status of women have an indirect demographic effect.

Open-Ended Questions

  1. Why does the death rate decline before the birth rate in the second stage of the demographic transition model?
  2. Why is Sub-Saharan Africa projected to account for more than half of the world’s population growth between 2019 and 2050 and continue growing through the end of the century?
  3. How can rising population growth be a challenge for less developed countries?
  4. How can the growth of the working-age population create opportunities for economic growth in less developed countries?
  5. Which countries are the most important destinations for migrants in the world?
  6. Research the dependency ratio of Ethiopia in 2020 and describe its impacts on the country's economic development.

Geographic Location and Economic Development

Introduction

Geographic location is a crucial factor influencing economic development through the distribution of geology, relief, climate, soils, and biodiversity. These factors affect agricultural production, industrialization, and commerce. While modern technology has minimized some geographic limitations, the poorest countries are often in tropical regions characterized by hot climates, infertile soils, water scarcity, and tropical diseases. Geographic features and development policies are closely linked, necessitating technological advances to lessen geographical barriers.

Effects of Geographic Location on Development

Geographic location influences agricultural, industrial, commercial, and service developments. This section explores the contrasting views of geographic determinism and possibilism, appreciating the effect of geographic location on agricultural development, explaining its influence on industrial development, and describing its effect on settlement and service development.

Economic Growth and Development

Economic growth is an increase in goods and services (GDP) in a nation over a specific period, mainly focusing on quantitative growth without considering the standard of living. Economic development, on the other hand, refers to the sustained development of material well-being, focusing on both qualitative and quantitative improvements, such as education, health, housing, sanitation, and employment opportunities. Economic development is often measured using the Human Development Index (HDI).

Human Development Index (HDI)

The HDI is a quantitative measure of human well-being and development, computed using three dimensions: longevity (life expectancy at birth), access to knowledge (literacy rates and average years of schooling), and standard of living (real per capita income). Each measurement is converted into a 0-1 scale, and the scaled values are added to form the HDI.

In 2019, Norway, Ireland, and Switzerland ranked highest with HDI scores of 0.957 and 0.955 respectively, while Niger, Central African Republic, and Chad had the lowest scores at 0.394, 0.397, and 0.398 HDI, respectively. Ethiopia ranked 173 out of 189 countries, with an HDI value of 0.485.

Geographical Determinism and Possibilism

Geographic determinism posits that the geographic environment (location, climate, geomorphology) exclusively determines the socioeconomic development of countries. Theorists argue that temperate regions are more developed due to their climate. Advocates included Aristotle, Hippocrates, Strabo, Karl Ritter, Ellen Churchill Semple, and Elsworth Huntington.

Possibilism argues that development is determined by the interaction of geographic location and human factors. Geographic location and environmental factors play a significant role but can be modified by human beings using creativity. Proponents included Lucien Paul Victor Febvre and Paul Vidal de la Blache who suggested nature being seen as an advisor, offering possibilities and not necessities.