unit 1 RVSP notes

Unit-1 Random Variable

  • Commutative Law
  • Associative Law:
    • AU(BUC)=(AUB) UC
    • A \cap (B \cap C) = (A \cap B) \cap C
  • Distributive Law
    • AU (B \cap C) = (AUB) \cap (AUC)
    • A \cap (BUC) = (A \cap B) U (A \cap C)
  • Complement
    • A \cup A^c = S
    • S^c = \phi
    • (A^c)^c = A
  • Demorgan's Law:-
    • (A \cup B)^c = A^c \cap B^c
    • (A \cap B)^c = A^c \cup B^c

Probability

  • Probability introduced to set
    • Event: An event is defined as all possible outcomes of an experiment.
    • Sample Space (S): Sample Space is defined as set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.

Probability

  • Let s be the sample space be an event associated with random experiment then probability event A is defined as the ratio of number of favarouble Outcomes of an event to the exustive number of Cases in Sample space.
    • P(A) = \frac{N(A)}{n(s)}
      • N(A) = No of favorable outcomes of an event A
      • n(s) = Exclusive number of cases in Sample space.
  • Ex: Consider a Die of experiment Sample Space is 6 faces indicates {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
    • Event A represents even number faces.
      • A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
      • n(s) = 6
      • n (A) = 3
      • P(A) = \frac{1}{2}
  • Probability introduced to AXIOMS
    • AXIOM I
      • P(A) \geq 0
      • The probability of an event is always non negative numbers
    • AXIOM II
      • P(s) = 1
      • i.e The probability of sample space is always unity
      • P(s) = \frac{n(s)}{n(s)} = 1
    • AXIOM-III
      • 0 \leq P(A) \leq 1
      • i.e The probability is allways Lays between 0 to 1.
    • AXIOM - If events A and B are matually exclusive
      • P(A \cup B) = P(A)+ P(B)
    • AXIOM -
      • If A1, A2, A3…. An are mutually exclusive events then
        • P(A1 \cup A2 \cup A3 …. \cup An) = P(A1) + P(A2)… + P(A_n)

Properties of probability

  • Theorem 1: The probability of an impossible event is zero
    • Proof: Sample space (s) and impossible event (\phi) are mutually exclusive events
      • P(s \cup \phi) = P(s)
      • P(s)+ P(\phi) = P(s)
      • \implies P(\phi) = P(S) - P(S) = 0
  • Theorem 2: If A^c is the complementry event of event A
    • Then P(A^c) = 1-P(A)
      • Proof: - A and A^c are mutually exclusive events
        • A \cup A^c = S
        • P(A \cup A^c) = P(S)
        • P(A) + P(A^c) = 1
        • \implies P(A^c) = 1-P(A)
  • Theorem 3: If A and B are two events then
    • P(A \cup B) = P(A)+P(B)-P(A \cap B)
      • Event A is the Union of A \cap B^c and A \cap B that is A = (A \cap B^c) \cup (A \cap B)
      • Event B is the union of A \cap B and A^c \cap B i.e. B = (A \cap B) \cup (A^c \cap B)
      • P(A) + P(B) = P((A \cap B^c) \cup (A \cap B)) + P((A^c \cap B) \cup (A \cap B))
      • P(A) + P(B) = P(A \cap B^c) + P(A \cap B) + P(A^c \cap B) + P(A \cap B)
      • A \cap B^c, A \cap B are mutually exculsive event and A^c \cap B, A \cap B are mutually exclusive Events
        • P(A)+P(B) = P(A \cup B) + P(A \cap B)
        • P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)
  • Theorem 4: If events A, B and C are
    • P(A \cup B \cup C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) -P(A \cap B) - P(A \cap C) -P(B \cap C) + P(A \cap B \cap C)
      • P(A \cup B \cup C) = P(A) + P(B \cup C) - P(A \cap (B \cup C))
      • P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(B \cap C) - [P(A \cap B) \cup(A \cap C) - P(A \cap B \cap C]
      • = P(A) + P(B)+P(C) - P(B \cap C) - P(A \cap B) - P(A \cap C) + P(A \cap B \cap C)
  • Theorem 6
    • If A \subseteq B (A subset B) :
      • P(A) \leq P(B)
        • A \cap B = A
        • From the figure A and A \cap B^c are mutually Exclusive events
        • Then A \cup (A \cap B^c) = B
        • P (A \cup (A \cap B^c)) = B
        • P(A) + P(A \cap B^c) = P(B)
  • Theorem 7-
    • If B \subseteq A (B Subset A)
      • P(B) \leq P(A)
        • From the figure B and A \cap B^c are a mutually exclusive events
        • B \cup (A \cap B^c) = A
        • P(B \cup (A \cap B^c)) = P(A)
        • P(B)+ P(A \cap B^c) = P(A)
  • Problems:
    • A fair Coin is fossed four times defined the Somple space corresponding to this rondom experiment. Also give the subset Corresponding to the following events and find respective probablibes
      • (i) more heads than tails are obtained,
      • (ii) Tails occurred even number Losses
      • Sol
        • A fair coin ia fossed 4 times le number of all possible outcomes
        • n(s) = 2^n = 2^4 => 16
        • defind the sample space is equal to the set of all possible cases.
        • Sample Space = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH, HHTT, HTHT, HTTH, TTHH, THTH, THHT, HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT}
        • (i) Event 'A' Represents more heads than tails are obtained
          • A = {HHHT, HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH }
          • n (A) = 5
          • P(A) = \frac{n (A)}{n(s)}
            • No of favorable cases of event A
            • Exclusive No of cases in sample space
          • P(A) = \frac{5}{16}
        • (11) Event "B" represents fails occured even number Losses.
          • B = { TTHH, THTH, HTHT, HTTH, TTHH }
          • n (B) = 4
          • P(B) = \frac{n(B)}{n(s)} = \frac{4}{16}
    • When two dies are throughn determine the Probability that.
      • (1) A = {sum = 7 }
      • (ii) B = {8<sum≤11}
      • (iii ) c = {10 < sum}
      • (iv) Determine P(B \cap C)
      • (V) Determine P (B \cup C)
      • Sol Two Dies are thrown
        • S_1 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
        • S_2 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }
        • Over all sample space
          • S=S1 \times S2
          • S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} \times {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }
          • S={
            (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
            (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
            (3,1) (3.2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
            (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
            (5, 1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
            (6, 1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6;6) }
          • n(s) = 36
          • (i) A = {sum =7}
            • = {(1,6) (2,5) (3,4) (4,3) (5,2) (6,1)}
            • n(A) = 6
            • P(A) = \frac{N(A)}{n(s)} = \frac{6}{36} = \frac{1}{6}
          • (11) B = {8 <sum \le 11}
            • {Sum = 9,10,11}
            • {(3,6) (4,5) (6,3) (5.4) (4,6) (5,5) (6,4),
              (5,6) (6,5) }
            • n (B) = 9
            • P(B) = \frac{n(B)}{n(s)} = \frac{9}{36} = \frac{1}{4}
          • C = {10< Sum}
            • {Sum 11,12}
            • = {(5,6) (6,5) (6,6) }.
            • n(c) = 3
            • P(C) = \frac{n(c)}{n(s)} = \frac{3}{36} = \frac{1}{12}
          • (IV) B \cap C
            • {83}
            • \le 11} \cap { fro<sum}
            • { sum = 11}
            • = {(5,6) (6,5)}
            • n (B \cap C) = 2
            • P (B \cap C) = \frac{n (B \cap C)}{n(s)} = \frac{2}{36} = \frac{1}{18}
          • (V) P (B \cup C) = (P(B) + P(c) - P(B \cap C)
            • = \frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{12} - \frac{1}{18}
            • = \frac{9+3-2}{36} = \frac{10}{36} = \frac{5}{18}

Joint and Conditional probability

  • Joint probability: The joint probability of two events A and B denoted as P(A \cap B) we know that
    • P(A \cap B) = P(A) + P(B) = P(A \cup B)
  • Conditional probability: The conditional probability of event B, Assuming that Event A has happened denoted as P(B/A) and defined as P(B/A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}
    • Provided P(A) \neq 0
    • P (A/B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}, provided P(B) \neq 0
  • Properties
    • If any two events A and B if A \subseteq B then
      • P (B/A) =1
        • Proof! A \subseteq B then A \cap B = A
        • We know that
          • P(B/A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} = \frac{P(A)}{P(A)} = 1
    • Any Ewo events A and B if B \subseteq A then
      • P (B/A) = \frac{P(B)}{P(A)}
        • if B \subseteq A then B \cap A = B
        • P(B \cap A) = P(B)
        • P[B/A] = \frac{P(B \cap A)}{P(A)} = \frac{P(B)}{P(A)}
        • 0< P(A) <1
  • If A and B are mutually exclusive events Explain
    • If A and B are mutually exclusive events
      • A \cap B = \phi
      • P(A \cap B) = P(\phi) = 0
      • P (B/A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} = \frac{0}{P(A)} = 0
    • If A and B are mutually exclusive events then Anc and Bnc are also mutually exclusive events Hence,
      • P ( (A \cup B)) = P (A/C) + P(B/C)
        • Proof: Anc and Bnc are also mutua mutually exclusive events.
          • P ((A \cup B)) = \frac{P ((A \cup B) \cap C)}{P(C)} = \frac{P ((A \cap C) \cup (B \cap C))}{P(c)}
          • \frac{P(A \cap C) + P(B \cap C)}{p(c)} = \frac{P(A \cap C)}{P(C)} + \frac{P(B \cap C)}{P(C)} = P(A/C) + P(B/C)
  • P(B)>P(A) then P(B/A) > P(B). P(A/B) > P(A)
    • \implies \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} > P(A)
    • P(A \cap B) > P(A) P(B)
    • P (B/A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}
    • P (B/A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} > \frac{P(A) P(B)}{P(A)} = P(B)
  • P(A) > P(B) then P(A/B) >P (B/A)
    • P[(A/B) > P [B/A] = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} > \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} \implies P (A \cap B) P(A) > P (A \cap B) P(B)
  • Total probability theorem: If B1, B2, B3-.. BN are set of exclusive and mutually exclusive events Associated with random experiment A is another event. Associated with B_n When n is equal to the
    • n = 1,2,3,4,5… N then
      P(A) = \sum{n=1}^{N} P(Bn) P(A/B_n)
    • Proof: Event A are Associated with along with B1, B2, B3 …. BN Inner Circuit Represents event A and outer circuit Represents Event B. and B1, B2, B3 …. BN are mutually exclusive events then A \cap B1, A \cap B2, A \cap B3 …. A \cap BN are also mutually exclusive events.
      • A = A \cap B1 \cup A \cap B2 \cup A \cap B3 …. \cup A \cap BN
      • P(A) = P(A \cap B1 \cup A \cap B2 \cup A \cap B3 …. (\cup A \cap BN) = P(A \cap B1) + P(A \cap B2) + P(A \cap B3) + P(A \cap BN)
      • P(A) = \sum{n=1}^{N} P(A \cap Bn)
      • Where P (A/Bn) = \frac{P(A \cap Bn)}{P(B_n)}

Baye's theorem

  • If B1, B2, B3-.. BN are set of exhust and mutually exclusive event Associated with random experiment 'A' is the another event Associated with B_n is equal to the M: 0,1,2,3,4. N then
    • P [Bn/A] = \frac{ P (Bn) P (A/Bn)}{\sum{i=1}^{N} P(Bi)P(A/Bi)}
      • P(A/Bn) = \frac{P(A \cap Bn)}{P (B_n)}
      • P (Bn) = \frac{P(A \cap Bn)}{P(A/B_n)}
      • P (Bn/A) = \frac{P(A \cap Bn)}{P(A)}
      • P (A \cap Bn) = P(A) P (Bn/A)
      • P (A \cap Bn) = P(Bn) P(A/B_n)
      • P (Bn/A) = \frac{ P (Bn) P (A/B_n)}{ P(A)}
      • Using total probability theorem
        • P(A) = \sum{i=1}^{N} P(Bi) P(A/B_i)
        • P (Bn/A) = \frac{ P (Bn) P (A/Bn)}{ \sum{i=1}^{N} P(Bi)P(A/Bi)}

Independent Events

  • A set of events of Independent events if the occurence any Object does not depends on occurence and occurence of others
    • P (A \cap B) = P(A) P(B)
  • If A and B are two independent events then P(A/B) = P(A),
    • Explain
      • P(A/B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} = \frac{P(A) P(B)}{P(B)} = P(A)
      • P (B/A) = P(B)
        • P(B/A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} = \frac{P(A) P(B)}{P(A)} = P(B)
  • properties
    • If A and B are two independent events then A and B^c are also independent events
      • Proof: P (A \cap B^c) = P(A) P(B^c)
      • P(A \cap B^c) = A
      • P(A \cap B^c) = P(A) = P(A)
      • P(A \cap B^c) = P(A) = P(A)
      • P (A \cap B^c) = P(A) - P(A \cap B)
    • If A and B are two Independent, events then A^c and B are also Independent events
      • Proof :- A^c \cap B and A \cap B are mutually exclusive events
    • If A and B are two Independent events and A^c and B^c are also Independent events.
      • Proof: A and B^c are Independent events
  • Problems:
    • 1) A Card is drawn from well shottled pack of 52 Cards. Find the probability that the card draw win be. (1)
    • (1) Red card
    • (11) Squade card
    • (111) Black Queen
    • (IV) King of diamond
    • Sol + A ordinary pack of cards contains 52 cards divided into 4' suits.
      • ★ The Red Suit are diamond and hearts
      • ★ Black suit are squades and clubs
      • ★ Each suit contains 13 cards of the following domination.
        • 2 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J (Jack), Q (Queen), K (King) A (Acc) to
          • J,Q and K are face cards
      • n(s) = 52
      • (i) Red Card = Event A (1) Squade card = Event B
        black queen - Event C
        (IV) King of diamonds = Event D
      • (i) Red cards:
        • These are 26 Red Cards from which I card can be drawn in 26 casas
        • n(A) = 26
        • P(s) = \frac{26}{52}
      • (ii) Squade Cards:
        • There are 13 squade from which I card can be drawn in 13 casas
        • n (B) = 13
        • P(B) = \frac{n(B)}{n(s)} = \frac{13}{52} = \frac{1}{4}
      • (1) Black Queen:
        • There are 2 black Queens from which I can be drawn in 2 boxes
        • n(c) = 2
        • P(C) = \frac{n(c)}{n (s)} = \frac{2}{52} = \frac{1}{26}
      • (1) King of diamond?
        • There is only I king of diamonds
        • n(D) = 1
        • P(D) = \frac{n(D)}{n(s)} = \frac{1}{52}
    • ②In a box There are 100 resistors having resistance and Tollerence as shown in a table. Let a resistor selected from the box and Assume each resistor as the same likely wood being choosn define there events.
      • + Event A as Draw a 47- \Omega Resistor
      • + Event B as Draw a resistance with 5% tolerence.
      • * Event cas Draw a 100- \Omega Resistoy
        find individual, Joint and Conditional probability.
      • Total:
        • Resistor (\Omega) Tolerence
          • 5% 10%
        • 22 \Omega 10 14 = 24
          28 16 = 44
          8 = 32
          Total 62 38 = = 100
          +P(x=6)+P(X \le 7) Individual) Events!)
          Event A as Dracon 472 Resistor from the fable
          n(A) = 44 n(s) = 100
          P(A)=\frac{n(A)}{n(s)} = \frac{44}{100} =\frac{11}{25}+
          +Event B as drawn a resistor with 5% tolerence.
          n(B) =62
          P(B)=\frac{n(B)}{Loun(s)} = \frac{62}{100}+
          Event c has Drawn a 100-a resistor
          n(c) 32
          \n(c) = 32
          P(c)=\frac{n(c)}{n(s)} \frac{32}{100} = \frac{8}{25}+
          nt probability: AMB, BMC, CNA++nM
          AMB = 28
          P \frac{ (AMB)}{n(s)}=\frac{28}{100}+
          n (B \cap C) = 24
          P=\frac{ n (B \cap C)}{n(s)}=\frac{24}{100}+P (n (B \cap C))+
          n (C \cap A) = 0]+
          Conditional probability = P(B/A); P(A), P(B/C);
          P. (C/B) P (C/A); P(A/C)+
          P (B/A)
          P(B/A) = \frac{P(A\cap B)}{P(A)}=\frac{28/100}{44/100}+
          P (A/B)
          P(A/B) = \frac{P(A\cap B)}{P(B)}=\frac{28/100}{62/100}+
          p (B/C)
          P(B/C) = \frac{P(BA\cap)}{P(C)}= \frac{24/100}{32/100}+
          p (CIB)
          P(CIB) = \frac{P(B\cap C)}{P(B)}= \frac{24/100}{62/100}+
          p (CIA)
          P(CIA) = \frac{P(C\cap A)}{P(A)}=\frac{0}{44/100} = 0p (A/C)
          P(A/C) = \frac{P(C\cap A)}{P(C)}=\frac{}{}+
          Show that the chances of throwing sum 6 with+4,2 or 2 dies respectingly are 1:6:1814 (1)++
          P(x=0)+ P(x-1)+ P(X So If u dies are thrown. The favourable even £++
          is "sum of 6".
          The faverable outcomes are+
          {1113, 1131, 1311, 3111, 1122, 1212, 2121,
          22112112} +No of favourable outcomes = 10++
          Total no of possible outcomes are = 6^n++]+
          ++Probability of outcomes =No Total++n+o. of favarouble cases +P₁ =+\frac{10}{6^4}+++

Case (ii) If 3 dice are thrown favourable outcomes.The favourable outcomes are+++\114, 141, 411, 123, 321, 213, 312, 132, 231, 222 }++\No of favorable+outcomes 10+++
total no of possible outcomes 6 = +
₂ =+\frac{10}{3}+
+++ +

Case (iii) If 2 dice are thrown favorable outcomes +++
A A++
The favarouble outcomes are+
{24, 42, 15, 51, 33 }++
No of favorable outcomes = 5++
Total No of possible outcomes 6² ++ +
3 =+\frac{5}{6^2}+++
+
+\frac{10}{:}\frac{10 X 64}{:}\frac{5 }{ 6^{ = 1:6:18+++
+++ +,+++
+++++++ ++ A.. A, are mutually exclusive and exhusted + set of events As with random ex with+++ Sets of E, Events P, P with+++ Rondom joint marginal with listed The +++ Probabilibes B B, Probabi+P(A, =3+\frac P\36}(A =4+\frac {2}{36}AP=2+\frac{\A_{7}}{3++ +++++ Find (B And, P3,+++++++++++++++++, B ++=++.6++++ =P(A And, B)+ P And +P+\frac {P(A B) = +
++++ Simil B) +P+ 6++++ +
+\text {P +++
+of A-6++++++++A++++++++++++++++B+++++++++++++++++++++++++A++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++0+++++++The+a++++valid++A+=0+++++++++(9)++A++++valid+++++++++++++

  • Random Variables: Random variables is a function + that has assign a Real number X every +element Ses Let 's' be the Simple Space+Corresponding to Random experiment. Let 'x' is a random variable (or), Stochastic variable (or)
    +Condition x should be an event of real number
    +The 1) probability of x= oo and x == ০ are equal +Classification of Random variables +
    Discreate+Continious+
    Minced Random variables +Cumulative distributive function (CDF) +++If x is random variable of Discrete (or)+Continious then function, +If then (fe (xi) ++++for++ (+)+= for where+++++++++( =+++=++for where xi +++>=1 If >x