Blackboard Somalia

Somali Politics Before Independence

  • Resistance to British Conquest (1890-1924): Led by Mahammad Abdille Hasan of the Salihiyah tariqa.

  • British Administration: Managed the entire region including the Ethiopian Ogaden from 1941 to 1950.

  • 1947 Proposal: A proposed large Somalia was rejected by the USA, encouraged by Ethiopia, which aimed to reclaim Ogaden.

  • Italian Mandate (1950-1960): Lasted ten years to prepare Somalia for independence.

Dominance of the Somali Youth League (1950s-1960s)

  • Political Dominance: The Somali Youth League was the dominant political party in British Somaliland, Italian Somalia, and Northeastern Kenya during the 1950s and 1960s.

  • Djibouti's Position: In 1958, Djibouti chose not to join the new state of Somalia.

Somali Clans and Sub-Clans

  • Ethnographic Distribution: Complex clan structure involving multiple sub-clans and significant ethnic diversity in regions like Puntland and Somaliland.

  • Population Distribution: Mixed ethnic groups including major Somali clan families: Degodia, Gadabursi, Issa, Hawiye, and others.

  • Military and Political Divisions: Clan-based populations challenge the central government and influence regional politics.

The 1960s: Towards Independence

  • Independence of British Somaliland: June 30th, 1960, followed by Italian Somalia on July 1st, uniting to form the Republic of Somalia.

  • 1961 Constitutional Referendum: Boycotted by Somalilanders, leading to political instability.

  • Elections and Governance: The Somali Youth League dominated, yet faced challenges from clan candidates and independents which highlighted rising corruption and violence.

Presidents of Somalia (1960-1991)

  • Initial Leadership:

    • Aden Abdullah Osman Daar (1960-1967)

    • Abdirashid Ali Shermarke (1967, assassinated)

    • Mohamed Siad Barre (1969-1991; significant role in 1969 coup).

  • Subsequent Leaderships: Brief tenures followed Barre’s fall, leading to prolonged instability.

Conflict with Ethiopia and Kenya

  • Border Clashes: Notable clashes with Ethiopia in 1963 and Shifta War with Kenya (1963-1969).

  • Bamburi Protocol (1963): Reaffirmed military cooperation in response to border tensions.

  • Military Operations: Engagements against rebel groups while aiming for national integrity and regional objectives.

Siad Barre Regime: The Early Years (1969-1978)

  • Military Coup: Siad Barre's rise after the assassination of President Shermarke; sought support from the USSR and initiated military reforms.

  • Nationalization and Reforms: Implemented reforms, including literacy campaigns and the introduction of a new alphabet.

  • Military Alliance with USSR: Strategic developments regarding the port of Berbera, emphasizing Cold War geopolitics.

Siad Barre: The Later Years (1978-1991)

  • Social Crisis: Facing drought and famine leading to a legitimacy crisis; escalating civil unrest.

  • Ogaden War (1977-78): Invaded Ethiopia, leading to a disastrous retreat after initial territorial gains, exacerbating humanitarian crises.

  • Refugee Crisis: Increased population displacement resulted from military conflicts and environmental disasters.

Collapse of Siad Barre's Regime (1978-1991)

  • Discontent and Rebellion: Rising discontent in Somaliland; widespread rebellion eroding central authority.

  • Final Days of Regime: Barre retreated into loyalist factions until the regime's eventual collapse in 1991.

  • Militia Dominance: Clan-based factions emerged, leading to fragmentation and further political instability.

Twenty Years of State Collapse (1991-2012)

  • Formation of Militia Factions: Elaboration on the emergence of regional administrations like Somaliland and Puntland amid state failure.

  • Islamic Courts Union (2006): Briefly gained control but was crushed by Ethiopian forces.

  • Al Shabab Insurgency: Emergence of Al Shabab as a significant threat amid historical context and political vacuum.

Al Itihad al Islami (AIAI)

  • Origins and Evolution: Founded in the 1980s, AIAI transitioned from a military to a political presence amid Somalia's power dynamics.

  • Post-9/11 Developments: AIAI’s leaders evaded persecution and adapted tactics to remain relevant after the U.S. crackdown on extremism.

East Africa Al Qaeda Cell

  • Initial Integration: Osama Bin Laden's efforts to unify regional Islamist movements, leading to key terrorist incidents in Kenya and Somalia.

  • Terrorist Operations: Overview of notable attacks, including embassy bombings and failed plots, with Somalia as a staging ground.

Origins of Al Shabab

  • Development from AIAI: Al Shabab formed out of earlier networks, focusing on AQ facilitation and engaging in independent operations by 2004.

  • Militia Operations: Repercussions of violence against aid workers and militants; role within the Islamic Courts Union.

Al Shabab's Structure and Tactics

  • Militia Composition: Mixed clan base comprising foreign fighters and local militants organized by a leadership council.

  • Evolving Insurgency: Transition from mature insurgent strategies to guerrilla warfare tactics as pressures mounted from AMISOM forces.

Current State of Al Shabab

  • Focus and Strategy: Shifts towards rural safe havens and urban infiltration; adopting clandestine operational tactics.

  • Internal Conflicts: Struggles between various factions indicative of broader ideological divides within the group.

Historical Context of Al Shabab's Attacks

  • Major Incidents: Overview of significant attacks such as the Westgate shopping mall incident, highlighting operational impact.

  • Response to Attacks: Examination of Kenya's military responses to Al Shabab actions within and beyond its borders.

Political Instability in Somalia

  • Government Formation Efforts: The Somali Federal Government's challenges since 2007 amidst ongoing corruption and inefficiency.

  • Federalism Tensions: Emerging divisions between central government efforts and clan responses, leading to recurrent instability.

Jubaland Crisis

  • Emerging Federal State: The backdrop of Somali clan dynamics and changing political sentiments influencing the creation of new federal entities.

  • Al Shabab's Exploitation: Recognition of political vacuum aiding Al Shabab's influence in regional conflicts.

Al Shabab in Puntland

  • Expansion in Puntland: Exploiting local grievances to gain footholds and assert control over clan militias through forceful tactics.

  • Destabilization Strategies: Anti-peace efforts resulting in increasing violence and conflict within the region.

Challenges & Opportunities for Somali Governance

  • Political Rectification: Urgency in forging alliances with existing local elites to combat Al Shabab's resurgence.

  • Future Directions: Strategies to counteract the rise of Al Shabab while promoting sustainable governance and security frameworks.

The Future of the Somali State

  • Federal Government Operations: Prospects of success against a backdrop of international support and internal opposition dynamics.

  • Optimism & Cautions: Summary of emerging governance structures and external influences shaping Somalia's future amid ongoing challenges.