Electoral College

Renewed Interest in Electoral College Following 2000 and 2016 Elections

• In 2000, Gore wins popular vote by 543,895 votes, a margin of 0.5 percent.

• However, because he loses dispute over Florida, Bush wins Electoral College by 271-266 and becomes president.

• In 2016, Hillary wins popular vote by over 2.9  million, over 2 percent more than Trump.

• However, Trump wins EC victory 304-227.

• Trump wins by breaking Hillary’s “blue wall,” winning Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan by about 78,000 votes.

• Hillary’s misfortune: her voters are concentrated in Cal. and NY where she wins by 4.3 and 1.5 million votes respectively.

• (In 2020, Biden wins popular vote by more than 7 million, 4.4%. However, EC is much closer- Biden wins 3 states- AZ, GA, WI- with 37 EC votes by a combined 43K.)

• Following election, there are renewed calls to abolish Electoral College.

• Problems: voters become disinterested as time passes, difficulty of changing system.

2. How Electoral College Works and its Implications

• Electoral College formula: each state receives electors equal to number of Senators (2)+ number of members of House of Representatives.

• Additionally, D.C. receives three electoral college votes.

• Total E.C.V=538, 270 required to win.

• Number of electors given to each state is adjusted based on decennial census.

• Over last century states gaining electoral votes lie in the Sun Belt while those losing them lie in the Rust Belt.

2. How Electoral College Works…

• Months before the general election, each party on the ballot in each state nominates individuals to serve as electors.

• Electors are above all else party loyalists, reliable votes for the party’s nominee.

• Electors are usually state and local public officials, important people in the party, representatives of key groups.

• Only limitation is electors may not be employees of the federal government.

  On election day, voters cast votes for “electors for” the candidate of their choice.

• 48 states and D.C. apportion electors on plurality, winner take all basis- candidate winning a state by as little as one vote receives all of that state’s electoral votes.

• Two states do things differently: Maine and Nebraska apportion electoral votes to winner of each congressional district, remaining two votes given to overall popular vote winner in the state.

• Imp. point- Constitution does not specify how states apportion their electoral votes, states decide.

2. Implications for parties, candidates and voters.

• Candidates ignore states where they are certain to win or lose.

• They confine their efforts to a handful of marginal swing states or battleground states- maybe 10-15. These states receive candidate visits, campaign offices, intense GOTV efforts, television ads.

• Remainder of states (including California, Texas and New York) are ignored. Turnout is lower in non-swing states. Voters there appear to understand that their votes will not affect the outcome.

  Third parties suffer under this system unless they are regionally based.

• Otherwise, they find it virtually impossible to win Electoral College votes in plurality, winner take all system.

• Best recent example: In 1992, Ross Perot receives 19% or popular vote but 0 ECV.

• Voters frequently desert third parties because they don’t want to “throw away” their votes, want to support candidate with a chance to win.

• Relevance of third-party candidates is that they may be spoilers, tipping the election away from candidate or party with closest views (e.g., Nader, 2000, Perot, 1992).

  On five occasions- 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000 and 2016- candidate who receives most popular votes loses Electoral College and presidency.

• In 2016, Trump wins three states Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania by thin margin (combined 78k), Hillary wins New York and California by millions of votes.

• Close calls abound- In 2004, Bush wins pivotal state of Ohio by approximately 110,000 votes.

• Even in 2012, a swing of less than 350,000 votes in four states (Florida, Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire) would have given election to Romney.

• As discussed earlier, 2020 is also a close call.

2. How Electoral College Works…

• Day after election Electoral College delegates are certified by state governors.

• In December they travel to state capitols to cast their ballots. Almost always, they vote for candidate they were chosen to support.

• Occasionally they don’t. Faithless electors- permitted or not? In 2016, 7 members of electoral college vote for candidates different from those they were pledged to support. First time since 1948 where there has been more than one.

• Electoral College Votes are officially counted on January 6^th before a joint session of Congress.

• If no candidate receives a majority of ECV, the matter is resolved by the House of Representatives- chooses between three candidates with most electoral college votes, each state delegation receives one vote regardless of size. This occurs twice: 1800 and 1824.

3. Origins: why do we have it?

• Framers’ believed that voters did not possess enough knowledge or sophistication to make competent decisions. They worried voters would choose favorite sons, winner will be supported only by a minority.

• Demands of small, thinly populated states. Electoral College gives them disproportionate weight.

• Example: In 2020, California’s population: 39.4 million, Wyoming’s 582,328. California receives 55 ECV, Wyoming 3. California 67x more people than Wyoming but receives only 18x as many ECV.

4. Should we eliminate Electoral College? If so, what should replace it?

• Until recently, 60-70 percent of Americans support eliminating the Electoral College.

• Problem is doing so would require a constitutional amendment- winning support of ¾ of state legislatures is unlikely- any state with five or fewer ECV has little incentive to agree, doing so would decrease their influence in presidential elections.

  Additionally, the most obvious alternative, determining winner on basis of popular vote has its own set of problems.

• Most problematic would be that any close election would be accompanied by calls for a recount.

• Recounting votes in 50 states and D.C. would be a logistical nightmare.

• Results would likely be disputed, winner would be regarded as illegitimate.

• At least Electoral College confines such disputes to individual states (e.g., Florida in 2000).

• 2020: An argument in favor of retaining the Electoral College?

5. One Proposed Solution: National Popular Vote

• Under Constitution states have the right to apportion Electoral College votes as they please.

• Under NPV, states pledge that their electors will vote for the winner of the national popular vote, regardless of the result in their state.

• NPV is essentially an end run around the Constitution.

• NPV would go into effect when states with 270 ECVs adopt it.

• At present, 15 states and D.C. with 196 ECVs have adopted, 61 percent of ECV.

• If and when NPV is adopted, it will inevitably be challenged in federal court. No one knows for certain how Supreme Court would rule.