Study Notes on Economic Thinking

How to Think Like an Economist

Overview

  • Discussions on the role of economists and the methodologies they employ in their work, with emphasis on fundamental concepts in economics.

Chapter 2: How to Think Like an Economist

  • Introduction to thinking like an economist and the methods used by economists.

  • The chapter skips the circular flow diagram which is commonly found in economics textbooks.

  • Central questions include: What do economists do? How do they operate?

The Role of Economists

Yale Psychologist Paul Bloom
  • Discusses the market for organ transplants and critiques ethical implications.

  • Arguments regarding the monetary value of human organs, notably kidneys.

  • Paul Bloom argues that economists' willingness to quantify such values showcases a moral disconnection, coining the phrase:

    • “The problem is not that economists are unreasonable people, it’s that they’re evil people. They work in a different moral universe.”

  • The discussion raises ethical implications around economics and moral reasoning.

  • Encouraging students to adopt this different perspective raises moral concerns about economics as a discipline.

The Economist as Scientist

  • Economists play dual roles:

    1. Scientists: who aim to explain how the world operates.

    2. Policy Advisors: who seek to improve societal conditions.

The Scientific Method in Economics
  • Economists employ the scientific method, which encompasses:

    • Model/Theory Development: Formulating initial theories about economic behaviors.

    • Data Collection: Gathering relevant data to inform and validate these theories.

    • Analysis: Analyzing the collected data to interpret results and draw conclusions.

    • Model Reformulation: Revising theories based on findings to enhance accuracy.

Economic Models

  • Economists develop models based on assumptions regarding human behavior.

  • The term Homo economicus (commonly referred to as “Econs”) is crucial here.

    • Assumptions about 'Econs':

    • Rationality: Decisions are made logically.

    • Self-interest: Individuals seek to optimize their outcomes.

    • Preference for more resources: Individuals are assumed to always prefer more goods.

  • The realism of these assumptions is debated among economists.

  • Acknowledgement of tradeoffs inherent in creating simplified models.

Are You Homo Economicus?
  • Presenting a hypothetical scenario regarding birthday wishes to explore personal preferences and reveal economic reasoning:

    • A) Surprise me, I love surprises!

    • B) Money, obviously.

    • C) Questioning the significance of arbitrary celebration, eventually opting for money.

The Value of Economic Models

  • Models are constructed to predict economic phenomena; if successful, they hold value.

  • Complexity in modeling arises rapidly; economists may achieve accuracy but also face failures.

  • Emphasis on the necessity of data to verify or falsify theoretical predictions.

Challenges in Economic Experiments

  • A distinct challenge faced by economists is the ethical implications of conducting randomized experiments on humans.

  • Performing experiments on large scale societies or nations is deemed impractical.

  • Example Case: Cares Act of 2020, estimating a fiscal response of $2.2 trillion, creating significant debate:

    • Arguments for increased support versus critiques of the relief measures.

  • This underlies the challenges in resolving many economic queries definitively.

Natural Experiments

  • Acknowledging natural experiments as a viable alternative to randomized controlled trials.

  • Examples include:

    • The impact of minimum wage laws on employment.

    • Effects of military drafts on the earnings of those who served in the Vietnam War.

    • Medicare eligibility at the age of 65.

  • Limitations include the inability to address all economic queries and issues around generalizability.

Obstacles in Economic Scientific Practice

  • Economists face unique obstacles, including:

    • B) Difficulty and sometimes impossibility of conducting experiments.

    • C) Question of whether economics can be approached subjectively versus objectively.

The Production Possibilities Frontier

Definition

  • Production Possibilities Frontier (PPF): A graphical representation showing the potential combinations of two goods that an economy can produce, given its resource limits and technology level.

    • Resources include: land, labor, and capital.

    • The level of economic well-being correlates to how much production occurs.

Illustrative Example
  • PPF illustrates production choices, highlighting trade-offs, such as the trade-off between producing computers versus butter:

    • **Analytical Points: **

    • Efficient production versus inefficient.

    • Feasibility of production combinations.

Implications of Technology on PPF

  • Technological advances can lead to an outward shift on the PPF, indicating economic growth allowing for increased production of goods.

    • Production capacity for both goods is expected to improve with technological progress.

Biased Technological Advances

  • Biased advances affect one area of the economy’s production curve, e.g.,

    • Introduction of superior fertilizer leading to increased agricultural output while neglecting production elsewhere.

Factors Impacting PPF's Position

  • Expanding resources such as additional land, labor, or capital also contribute to outward shifts in the PPF.

Opportunity Cost and PPF

  • Critical concept: opportunity costs arise when allocating resources for production:

    • In moving from producing computers to butter, how much of one good must sacrifice to increase production of another?

    • Mathematical representation of Opportunity Cost:
      OCextgoodA=racextchangeingoodBextchangeingoodAOC_{ ext{good A}} = rac{ ext{change in good B}}{ ext{change in good A}}

    • Meaning: For each unit of good A (e.g., a computer), resource allocation can cause measurable detriment in good B (e.g., butter).

Example Calculation

  • In a two-good economy, opportunity costs are articulated verbally:

    • “You give up x of good B to get y of good A.”

  • Calculation methodology to illustrate moves across PPF.

Calculating Opportunity Cost From PPF

  • Reference changes in production from point A to B; the opportunity cost is determined by: OCextcar=racextChangeincomputersextChangeincarsOC_{ ext{car}} = rac{ ext{Change in computers}}{ ext{Change in cars}}

    • Example calculation, from point A (200 cars and 100 computers) results in:

    • OCextcar=rac200100=2extcomputersOC_{ ext{car}}= rac{200}{100} = 2 ext{ computers}

    • Further shift from B to maximum cars (300 cars without computers) results in:

    • OCextcar=rac2000300=6.67extcomputersOC_{ ext{car}}= rac{2000}{300} = 6.67 ext{ computers}

The Shape of the PPF

  • The PPF can take on varied geometric forms (linear or bow-shaped).

  • The shape impacts opportunity costs encountered when reallocating resources.

Bow-Shaped PPF
  • A bow-shaped PPF indicates increasing opportunity costs as production escalates for a specific good.

  • Linear PPF suggests constant opportunity costs across production.

Rationale Behind Bow-Shaped PPF
  • Bowed PPF arises when differing workers have specialized skills impacting production; costs vary as one good replaces another.

  • Example: Skills related to constructing computers versus farming for butter; not all production methods yield equal benefits.

Discussion: Recognizing Economic Concepts

  • Engage in partner discussions to articulate theoretical applications:

    • Consider scenarios creating unbiased growth where both goods improve in production.

    • Instances that create biased growth favoring one good over another are explored.

Normative Versus Positive Economic Statements

Definitions

  • Positive Statements: Factual, descriptive claims that can be validated. Example statement:

    • “Minimum-wage laws cause unemployment.”

  • Normative Statements: Prescriptive assertions about what should happen or be. Example statement:

    • “The government should raise the minimum wage.”

Notable Examples in Economic Discourse
  1. When discussing carbon taxes, an economist notes,

    • “Economists (some with caveats), Exxon, and Elon Musk have all stated that a specific version of the carbon tax is the best way to encourage cleaner consumer choices.” This aligns as a positive statement.

  2. Contrarily, Presidents’ remarks regarding resource allocations represent normative statements rooted in opinion. “I don’t think we should **.”

Reasons for Economic Disagreements

  • Economists may offer differing policies due to:

    • Conflicting positive theories about economic realities.

    • The absence of experimental evidences.

    • Variability in values shaping what policies ought to pursue or prescribe.

Consensus on Economic Principles

Existing Agreement Among Economists:
  • General consensus on numerous economic statements, e.g.:

    • 93% affirm the impact of rent control reducing housing quality.

    • 90% believe in unrestricted outsourcing.

    • 85% support the elimination of agricultural subsidies.