ch 2

Class Administration

  • The class is currently adjusting to enrollment levels.
  • Team formation will be addressed before the next class session on Tuesday.
  • Homework assignment number one is now available, due Thursday at 05:30, submissions must be made at the start of class.
  • Late submissions are not accepted.
  • There are two submission opportunities; only the last submission will be graded.

Upcoming Case Study

  • A case study named "Legarde" will be introduced next week and will be available in the e-learning system.
  • It is encouraged to complete this case in person during the upcoming class session.

Format of Class Sessions

  • Class discussions will incorporate both theoretical concepts and practical applications as they relate to relevant cash flows in project evaluation.

Homework and Evaluation of Projects

  • Homework results will be reviewed in class shortly after submission.

Relevant Cash Flows Discussion

  • Relevant cash flows are crucial when evaluating projects and entail:
    • Understanding cash flows that are firm and stable versus those that are highly tentative or speculative.
    • Identification of different types of cash flows, including firm project cash flow and equity free cash flows.

Example Case: Chevrolet Corvette

  • The history of the Chevrolet Corvette is discussed in the context of evaluating project risks and revenue forecasts.
  • Corvette Lineage:
    • The Corvette has several generations (C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, etc.).
    • C7 was the last model before the current C8, which changed engine placement from front to mid.
    • This shift led to initial backlash from loyal customers concerned about the brand’s direction.

Historical Sales Data

  • In 2019, sales of C7 models dropped to the lowest level since 2013, prompting Chevrolet to innovate with the C8.
  • Sales figures:
    • 2019:
    • Total Sales: Approx. 17,000 to 18,000 units in the U.S.
    • Foreign Sales: Minimal compared to domestic (e.g., very few sold in Russia).
    • 2020: Sales increased by 20% to about 21,626 units, representing a positive response to the C8.
    • 2021: A 52% increase, reaching 33,000 units sold.
    • Subsequent years noted a decrease in sales, further driving the discussion of future models and projections.

Discussion on Electric Vehicles

  • The potential for Chevrolet to introduce an electric version of the Corvette (C8.2) raised several questions:
    • Will current customers embrace an electric version?
    • What production resources would be needed for an electric Corvette given the differentiated assembly lines required?
    • Will new EV customers be attracted while traditional buyers may resent the shift?

Project Analysis Challenges

  • Forecasting revenue and expenses requires evaluating:
    • Potential loss of sales from existing loyal customer base.
    • Impact on cash flows by introducing a new model amidst declining sales trends.
    • Necessary capital investments for new production facilities dedicated to electric vehicles.
    • Risks associated with market volatility and consumer preferences.

Project Cash Flow Calculations

  • Introduction of Free Cash Flow (FCF) concept:
    • Free Cash Flow to the Firm is calculated through a series of adjustments starting from Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT):

      ext{FCF} = ext{NOPAT} + ext{Depreciation} - ext{Capital Expenditures} - ext{Change in Working Capital}
    • Importance of adjusting for different cash flow drivers highlighted, including scrapping revenue and labor costs.

Example: CP3 Project Case

  • A project proposal from CP3 company regarding a new material handling system:
    • Required Capital Investment: $547,000
    • Projected Savings: $300,000 annually, plus $35,000 in labor savings, plus $800 from recycling.
    • Required Rate of Return: 20%
    • Risk considerations regarding potential assembly line downtime during the transition to new processes.

Time Value of Money Overview

  • Principles of time value of money were reiterated through cash flow projections.
  • Emphasis on discounting future cash flows to present value using various methods:
    1. Manual calculations and formulas
    2. Utilizing discount factors from tables
    3. Employing calculators or Excel.

Notable Terms and Definitions

  • EBIT: Earnings Before Interest and Taxes, crucial for both income statement and cash flow analysis.
  • NOPAT: Net Operating Profit After Tax, calculated from EBIT after subtracting marginal tax rate.
  • Net Working Capital: Excludes cash and interest-bearing liabilities; only non-interest bearing current assets and liabilities considered.

Calculation Practices

  • Calculation examples showed how to derive present values for different future cash flows, emphasizing the significant decline in present value as cash flows are projected farther into the future.
  • Noted the utility of present value assessments in evaluating various cash flow scenarios, ranging from one-time payments to annuities over extended periods.

Internal Rate of Return and NPV

  • Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Net Present Value (NPV) were discussed as important metrics for project evaluation:
    • IRR: The discount rate that brings NPV to zero, providing an important threshold for investment decisions.

Philosophical Considerations of Valuation

  • Valuation perspectives: intrinsic value determination via cash flows or market comparatives typically entails:
    • Critical for analysts, investors, and accountants, emphasizing the broad applicability of valuation methodologies across industries and business scenarios.

Future Class Planning

  • Next session will focus on discussing selected problems from the textbook related to discounting cash flows as well as reinforcing understanding of calculations introduced in this class.