Immigration Attitudes and American Politics

Immigration Attitudes and American Politics

Immigration Eras in American History

  • Immigration is often followed by cultural and political backlash.
  • "Open borders" period: 1492 – 1875
  • Waves of Immigration:
    • First Wave: 1840-1860
    • Second Wave: 1870-1920
  • Steadily growing restrictions: 1875-1924
    • There was tension between economic interests and cultural change during this period.
    • Restrictions were based on:
      • Race/nationality
      • Belief
      • Behavior
      • Skills
      • Public health
    • The government used this period to create a bureaucracy to implement restrictions.
  • Immigration restriction reaches its peak: 1921-1965
    • "National Origin" Quota Laws were enacted in 1921 and 1924.

Immigration Eras: 1940s/1950s – Moving Away from Quotas

  • The U.S. economy was changing.
  • There was demand for migrants in many industries, not just agriculture.
  • Domestic migration was also a factor.
  • The U.S. strategic role was changing.
    • Asylum became a consideration for political and humanitarian reasons.
  • There was a need for skilled technical labor.
  • Civil Rights and National-Origins Restrictions:
    • There was a link between the 1965 Immigration Act and Civil Rights legislation.
    • President Johnson decried the “harsh injustice” of National Origins Quotas.

The 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act

  • Guiding objectives:
    1. Family reunification
    2. Meeting national labor needs
    3. Less national bias
  • It created immigration opportunities for potential migrants who have immediate relatives in the United States.
  • It created immigration opportunities for Latinos and Asian Americans.
  • It defined some potential migrants as permanently ineligible to migrate.

Long-term Impact

  • 1980s and 1990s:
    • There was an increase in overall migration, with 900,000+ annually.
    • 80 percent of immigrants were Asian/Latin American.
    • Family-based migration guarantees a continued flow from these areas.
    • It spurred economic and cultural change in the U.S.
    • It added incentives to/resources for unauthorized migration.
    • Economic sectors became dependent on unauthorized labor resulting in Mixed-status families.
  • 2000s and 2010s:
    • +\/- 1,000,000+ immigrants obtained permanent residence annually.

Immigrant and Foreign-Born Population Over Time

  • Immigrant share of the U.S. population from 1850-2023 is visualized in a graph.
  • Decennial peak in 1890: 14.8%
  • About half of all immigrants from 1965 to 2023 are from Latin America.
  • The number of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. grew from 2019 to 2022.
  • Unauthorized immigrant population in the U.S. data is shown in millions for various years.

Immigration Growth From Non-White Populations Leads to Ambivalence

  • Contradictory views are always prevalent in immigration attitudes.
  • Americans support the country’s legacy of providing opportunities for success and social mobility as a nation of immigrants.
  • But many fail to see non-white immigrants as “true Americans.”
  • Many are uncomfortable with cultural change and harbor negative feelings such as resentment over the changing country.
  • Immigration growth tends to lead to political backlash.

Immigration Growth Leads to Backlash: California in the 1990s

  • The percentage of residents who are foreign-born in California and the United States is compared over time in a graph.
  • The trend of unauthorized immigrants in California versus all other states between 1980 and 2005 is charted.

Immigration Growth Leads to Backlash: California in the 1990s (Specific Propositions)

  • Prop 187 (1994): Save Our State Initiative
    • Passed with 59% of the vote (high White turnout).
    • It aimed to deny social or health care services to unauthorized immigrants.
    • It also aimed to deny public education for unauthorized immigrants.
    • It mandated that law enforcement must report unauthorized immigrants to the California AG.
    • It was ruled unconstitutional in 1997.
  • Prop 227 (1998): English in Public Schools Initiative
    • Passed with 61% of the vote.
    • It eliminated bilingual education in most public schools.
    • It was repealed by Prop 58 (2016), with 74% of the vote.

Immigration Growth Leads to Backlash (The Trains Experiment)

  • A research article discusses the causal effect of intergroup contact on exclusionary attitudes.
  • The experiment involved inserting Spanish-speaking confederates into the daily routines of unknowing Anglo-whites in homogeneous communities to simulate demographic change.
  • The result was a significant shift toward exclusionary attitudes among treated subjects.
  • The experiment demonstrates that even very minor demographic change causes strong exclusionary reactions.
  • It suggests that developed nations and politically liberal subnational units are expected to experience a politically conservative shift as international migration brings increased intergroup contact.

Immigration Growth Leads to Backlash (The Rise of Trump)

  • Graphs show Trump's Vote Intention in the Primary (YouGov/Economist Surveys) related to attitudes toward immigrants.

Immigration Attitudes: The Immigrant Group Matters

  • Research examines what triggers public opposition to immigration, focusing on anxiety, group cues, and immigration threat.
  • News about the costs of immigration boosts white opposition far more when Latino immigrants, rather than European immigrants, are featured in the news.
  • These group cues influence opinion and political action by triggering emotions—in particular, anxiety.
  • The public is susceptible to error and manipulation when group cues trigger anxiety independently of the actual threat posed by the group.
  • A graph depicts the relationship between ethnocentrism and opposition to immigration from different regions.

Immigration Attitudes: Limited Role of Self-Interest

  • Self-interest matters surprisingly little in immigration attitudes.
  • Vulnerability to economic competition from immigrants is only a weak predictor of immigration attitudes.
  • Views about immigrants’ effects on the national economy are a much stronger predictor.
  • Opposition to immigration is driven more by cultural than economic concerns.

Cultural Concerns and Immigrant Resentment

  • A key belief of racial resentment is that African Americans don’t try hard enough to succeed.
  • A key belief of immigrant resentment is that immigrants don’t try hard enough to fit into American culture.
  • “If immigrants only tried harder to fit in, then more Americans would accept their cultural differences” (53% of whites agree).
  • This is grounded in the belief that contemporary immigrants fail to emulate American cultural ideals such as becoming engaged in new communities and thinking of themselves as American.

Immigration Attitudes Among Non-Whites

  • Latinos and Asian Americans are more supportive than whites.
  • Asian Americans and Latinos highest in group solidarity are most supportive.
  • African Americans’ views are closer to Latinos and Asian Americans than whites.
  • African Americans who score highest in group empathy are most supportive.

Changing Immigration Attitudes in the Trump Era

  • Graphs illustrate Americans' preferences for immigration levels over time.
  • More Americans perceive that immigrants strengthen society.

Increased Support for Immigration Driven by Democrats' Backlash Against Trump I

  • Preference for an increase in immigration rises most sharply among Democrats.
  • Data compares viewpoints across party lines.

Increased Support for Immigration Driven by Democrats' Backlash Against Trump II

  • More Republicans consider large numbers of immigrants and refugees a “critical threat” to the U.S.
  • Data from various polls and surveys provide insights into these changing opinions.

Changing Immigration Opinions Part of Democrats Liberalizing Racial/Ethnic Attitudes Under Trump

  • Trends within the Democratic party illustrate shifts in perspective during this period.

Anti-Trump Backlash and Changing Demographics Also Leads to Growing Generational Divide

  • Immigration attitudes are now more divided by age than at any time in U.S. History.
  • Support for immigration among younger Americans will continue shifting attitudes via generational replacement.
  • Younger Americans who support immigration may increasingly replace older anti-immigrant adults in the population.

But Republicans Immediately Grew More Hostile to Immigration Under Biden

  • Support for deportation is ticking up among Republicans.
  • Data compares viewpoints across party lines.
  • Trump voters really don't like Biden's immigration policy

American Public Grew Even More Hostile to Immigration Throughout Biden's Term

  • Americans' Preferences for Immigration to the U.S. are illustrated through graphs.
  • Overall Assessments of Immigration for the U.S., by Political Party are shown.

But Trump's Wrongful Deportations/Detentions Were Always Poised to Produce Thermostatic Backlash

  • A large majority opposes mistakenly detaining legal residents.

The Politics of Immigration are Turning on Trump

  • Americans became more positive about immigration once Trump's second term began
  • Net approval of Donald Trump's handling of immigration in his first term and second term

Implications for American Politics Going Forward

  • Democrats and Republicans are now more divided over immigration than at any time in history.
  • Growing support among Democrats and young people led to the most progressive views of immigration in decades under Trump; but has since moved back to the right under Biden.
  • With two parties pushing so hard in opposite directions, future trends in immigration attitudes will likely be characterized by thermostatic shifts.
  • Republican politicians who used to be supportive of immigration for economic reasons are increasingly replaced by anti-immigrant Trump loyalists who cater to the party’s ethnocentric base.