Caribbean Climate Change — 1.5 Stay Alive (Condensed Notes)

Caribbean warming: $riangle T o ext{approximately }1.0^ ext{ }^ ext{C}$ since the mid-20th century; higher than the global average over the last 150 years.
Sea-level rise: coastal Caribbean seas rising faster locally; in Guyana, rate is roughly $5\times$ the global rate.
Global warming threshold: staying below $1.5^ ext{o}C$ is crucial to avoid extremely harsh island impacts.

Coastal concentration of roads, housing, and productive sectors; increased cyclone intensity and rainfall with sea-level rise amplifies destruction.
Risk: displacement or loss of life for coastal populations without sufficient adaptation.
Urgency: international support to curb global temperature rise to below $1.5^ ext{o}C$ to protect livelihoods.

Historically, tropical cyclone progression was slower; in the last decade, tropical depressions can explode into Category 4 hurricanes in under 24 hours.
Implication: warning systems must be revived and scaled to account for faster intensification.

SIDS contribute < 1% to global warming but are among the most vulnerable.
Need for developed countries to assist in reducing emissions and providing adaptation support.
Target: limit warming to $1.5^ ext{o}C$ to maintain a ~50% chance of withstanding climate impacts.

Global warming spreads heat into oceans; the ocean is the main heat sink (“the monster”).
Coral reefs provide shoreline protection and fisheries; they require cooler, stable temperatures.
Coral bleaching thresholds: when sea temperatures exceed $29^ ext{o}C$ to $31^ ext{o}C$ , bleaching occurs.
Tobago example: 2010 severe bleaching with >70% reef bleaching and 10–30% bleaching-induced mortality.
Reef/marine ecosystem link: mangroves and seagrass serve as nurseries; healthy reefs support fisheries and biodiversity.

Belize: barrier reef, Blue Hole, ecotourism (≈80% of visitors), 1 in 4 jobs tied to reefs; 65–70% of protein intake from marine sources.
Eastern Caribbean floods (Dec 2013) illustrate increasing intensity of climate events; risk of more frequent, severe events.
Coral decline threatens livelihoods of fisherfolk and coastal communities; saltwater intrusion affects freshwater aquifers and agriculture.

Global sea-level rise: ~3 mm/year; locally, Belize, Tobago, Guyana show about 5x that rate → ~15 mm/year.
Monk River erosion and displacement: coastal land overtaken by sea; cemeteries and communities at risk.
Miami–Dade/South Florida case: one-foot rise could jeopardize large portions of population and infrastructure; end-of-century projection: $4\text{ to }6.6\text{ ft}$ of rise.
King tides and infrastructure: Miami Beach pumping $300M as a short-term fix; not a substitute for reducing global emissions.

Saltwater intrusion and coastal erosion disrupt fisheries; 65–70% of regional protein comes from the sea.
Tourism depends on healthy reefs, beaches, and marine life; reef loss harms livelihoods and regional economies.
Belize tourism emphasizes reef conservation as a structural economic asset; calls for international emissions reductions.

Garifuna philosophy: "I for you and you for me"; emphasis on environmental stewardship and mutual aid.
Coastal communities facing displacement; calls for relocation options that keep communities intact.

Climate change is the defining crisis of this century; action is needed now to avoid a “big monster.”
The science demands: keep global temperature increase below $1.5^ ext{o}C$ to preserve ecosystems and livelihoods.
Required: substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions; restructured development pathways; support for adaptation in small island states.

If warming is limited to $1.5^ ext{o}C$ , Caribbean livelihoods, ecosystems, and coastal defenses have a better chance of surviving.
The window for ambitious, equitable action is critical; the Caribbean urges global cooperation and rapid change to protect oceans, coasts, and communities.