Climate Change

The Problem of Climate Change:

• The Greenhouse Effect:

  • Incoming Solar Radiation: The Sun’s energy reaches Earth as shortwave radiation, warming the surface

  • Outgoing Infrared Radiation: Earth’s surface emits heat as longwave ( infrared) radiation

  • Greenhouse Gases Trap Heat:

    • Gases absorb and re-emit infrared radiation

    • This traps heat in the atmosphere, warming the planet

• Climate Variability

  • Greenhouse gases influence climate variability by:

    • Altering atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns, causing variability in climate systems

    • Amplifying natural climate patterns like El Nino-Southern Oscillation ( ENSO)

    • Increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events

    • Triggering feedback mechanisms that exacerbate variability

      • Melting ice reduces the Earth’s reflectivity

      • Droughts reduce vegetation’s ability to absorb CO2

• Core Problems: Negative Externalities

  • Human amplification of the greenhouse effect

  • Climate change is driven by negative externalities

    • Costly unintended consequences of human activities

  • Example: Greenhouse gas emissions from energy use, agriculture, and industry

• Greenhouse Gases

  • Carbon Dioxide: Burning of fossil fuels, etc.

  • Methane: Coal mining, livestock, etc.

  • Nitrous Oxide: agricultural activities

  • Fluorinated Gases: Refrigeration and air-conditioning systems

• Emissions by Sector:

  • Largest 3: Power stations, Industrial processes, transportation fuels

  • Smallest 3: Waste disposal and treatment, Land use and biomass burning, and residential, commercial, and other sources

The Consequences of Climate Change:

• Consequences ( the Stakes)

  • Environmental Consequences

    • Rising Temperatures: heatwaves, droughts

    • Melting Ice and Rising Sea Levels: Threatens coastal communities and ecosystems

    • Extreme Weather Events: Increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes, floods, and wildfires

    • Loss of Biodiversity: Habitat, species destruction

  • Humanitarian Consequences:

    • Food insecurity: reduced crop yield due to altered weather

    • Water Scarcity: Depletion of freshwater resources

    • Climate Displacements: People forced to leave their homes

    • Health: Increased respiratory illnesses and disease spread

  • Economic Consequences:

    • Damage to Infrastructure: Costly repairs after disaster

    • Disrupted Industries: Agriculture, fisheries, and tourism were heavily impacted

    • Rising Costs: Insurance and climate adaption expenses

  • Socio-political Consequences:

    • Migration and Displacement: Climate refugees strain host communities ( and politicians can take advantage)

    • Resources Conflicts: Competition over scarce resources

  • Inequality: Disproportionate impacts and vulnerable population

Cooperation on Climate Change:

• Why is Cooperation so Difficult?

  • Divergent Stakes

    • Divergent Preferences Across Countries:

      • Developing countries want to industrialize

      • Developed countries want sustainable development and growth

    • Divergent Preferences within Countries

      • Environmental groups vs. industry

      • Public support, but unwillingness to bear economic costs

      • Short-term incentives for politicians

        • Logistical Challenges

        • Tragedy of the Commons

  • Logistical Challenges:

    • Strategies to deal with climate change

      • Mitigation: policies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions

      • Adaption: Preparing/mitigating climate change consequences

      • Geoengineering: large-scale manipulations to reduce levels of gas

    • Technology is not there for these things

    • Logistics complicated

  • Tragedy of the Commons:

    • Definition: A situation where a shared resource ( the “commons”) is overused by individuals acting in their self-interest, leading to collective harm

    • The Atmosphere as a Commons:

      • The atmosphere absorbs greenhouse gases

      • Has a limited capacity to do so without harmful climate effects

      • It is global, shared resources accessible to all but owned by none

• Climate Change as Tragedy of the Commons:

  • Individual Incentives:

    • Benefits of emitting ( e.g. economic growth, energy use) are local and immediate

    • Costs: ( e.g. rising temperatures, extreme weather) are global and distributed

  • Free- Rider Problem:

    • Actors can benefit from others’ mitigation efforts without reducing their own emissions

    • No enforcement if states “ free ride”

  • Coordination Challenges:

    • Different countries have varying priorities

    • Politicians prioritize short-term goals over long-term climate

• Paris Agreement

  • Keep the increase in temperature to below 2 degrees Celsius

  • Abandon fossil fuels by 2050 & support growth in renewable energy

  • Countries submit their own climate plan every 5 years but targets are not legally binding

  • Agreement enabled by prior agreement between US and China

  • Commitment of developed countries to a $100 billion dollar climate fund

• US Participation:

  • Obama admin key architect in 2015-2016

  • Trump withdrew in 2017

  • Biden rejoins in 2021

  • Trump will withdraw again in 2025

IR THEORY AND CLIMATE COOPERATION

• Neorealism:

  • Climate cooperation occurs only when in state interest

  • States maximize their own power

  • States focused on relative gains

  • No enforcement under anarchy

• Neoliberal Institutionalism

  • Climate cooperation occurs when institutions exist

  • International institutions can increase gains from cooperation

  • Institutions help coordinate collective action

  • No enforcement under anarchy

• Modern Liberal Theory:

  • Climate cooperation occurs when domestic politics align

  • Domestic political interests can be for or against change reform

  • Some domestic political actors are more or less active on the climate change agenda

• Social Constructivism:

  • Cooperation occurs with normative shift toward action

  • Individual norm entrepreneurs can spread these norms

  • NGOs can also be powerful agents of normative change at the domestic and international levels