FW 411 7: Risk Perception

Risk

Risk — what is it?

  • the chance of an adverse outcome to human health, quality of life or quality of the environment

  • the expected annual mortality that results from some condition

  • an individual’s intuitive judgment of both aspects of risk: the probability of occurrence and the severity of the associated consequences

  • Risk = likelihood x severity x freak out factor (outrage)

Risk Categories

  • Familiar high risks

    • high probability, large consequences

    • good info about the risk is available

  • Risk of low probability and large consequences

  • Risks buried in the background of “Natural occurrence”

  • Very low probability and very large consequences

Risk Perception — What is It?

  • Judgments people make when characterizing and evaluating hazardous activities and technologies

Perceived Risk

  • College Students: 1. Nuclear Power, 2. Handguns, 3. Smoking

  • Experts: 1. Moto Vehicles, 2. Smoking, 3. Alcohol

College students have a different perceived risk than risk experts.

Factors Influencing Risk Perception

  • Scale of Risk

    • Personal vs. Social → Did I get a COVID vaccine?

  • Choice

    • Voluntary vs. Non-voluntary

  • Awareness

    • Familiar vs. Exotic

  • Origin

    • Natural vs Technological

  • Social amplification: Media

Risk Perception

  • 2 elements shaping risk perception

    • Dread Risk:

      • “perceived lack of control, catastrophic potential, fatalities, distribution of risks and benefits”

      • control

      • degree of risk

      • catastrophic potential

      • severity of consequences

      • reduction potential

      • choice

      • scale

    • Unknown risk

      • “…the extent to which it is observable, known, new & delayed in its manifestation of harm.”

      • observation ability

      • knowledge of risk

        • to effected

        • to science

      • onset of effects

      • history of knowledge

Risk Acceptance

  • Subjective balancing of benefits with risks

  • Can agree on the degree of the risk and disagree on its acceptability

  • How does risk acceptance influence stopping pesticide use to save a butterfly species?

    • Mosquitos

    • Butterflies

Signals

  • the event’s message

  • signal potential = degree of potential social impact

    • how far the event’s signal travels

    • “stone dropped into a pond”

    • depends on the type of event (poorly understood system vs well understood, messenger)

Risk Assessment: What is It?

  • Informal risk assessment:

    • we do this all the time (when we cross the street)

  • Formal risk assessment (by the experts)

    • identification of hazards

Biases in Risk Assessment: Incorrect framing and certainty bias

Technical Model of Risk Management

  • Inform local communities of an environmental or health hazard

    • help residents of affected communities understand risk assessment and the optimal response

  • Change risky behavior

    • don’t fish from this lake

    • don’t drink alcohol

  • Assure those exposed that the risk is acceptable.

    • Example – giving assurances to a local community that urban archery is a safe way to reduce urban deer

Cultural Model of Risk Management

  • Involves the affected public in assessing risk and designing risk communication campaigns

    • recognizes cultural knowledge and experiences of local communities

    • Hmong example—

      • recent immigrants from vietnam to midwest near great lakes

      • depend heavily on fish

      • did not understand or ignored methyl mercury and PCB’s in great lakes fish

      • objective—communicate in “a culturally sensitive way that results in active consideration of this issue within the context of the fishing practices of Hmong people”

      • Scientist used Hmong native language and cultural traditions

      • Used video with Hmong people to describe risk involved with fishing & focus groups