PS 101 Class 21: Voting, Campaigns, and Elections

PS 101 Class 21: Voting, Campaigns, and Elections

Dr. Nathan Gibson
Fall 2025
Elizabethtown College

Today's Agenda

  • Current Events
  • Turning out to vote
  • How people decide who to vote for
  • Campaigns
  • Campaign ads
  • Chapter 11 quiz due Friday night

Current Events

  • Delegation of authority in democracy:

    • Citizens (the people) delegate authority to elected officials to manage state affairs.
    • Not delegating leads to excessive costs and inefficiencies in governance.

  • Principal-Agent Problems:

    • Issues arise due to hidden information and hidden actions:
    • Necessary to consider how the elected agents may not act in the public's best interest.
    • Conflicts arise when agents prioritize their own interests over those of the citizens.

  • Elections as a Solution:

    • Elections allow citizens to select their representatives (agents).
    • Citizens can remove agents (fire them) if they perceive them not to be performing adequately.
    • Electoral competition ensures accountability among representatives.

Who Can Vote

  • Historical Timeline of Suffrage:
    • Revolutionary Era: Voting limited to white, property-owning, male Protestants.
    • 1840s: Expansion of suffrage to all white men, initiation of the women's suffrage movement.
    • 1869: Wyoming grants the right to vote to women.
    • 1869: Ratification of the 15th Amendment, granting suffrage to African American men.
    • 1877: First introduction of the Woman Suffrage Amendment to Congress.
    • 1920: Ratification of the 19th Amendment, granting women the right to vote.
    • 1965: Passage of the Voting Rights Act, aimed at overcoming legal barriers preventing African Americans from voting.
    • 1971: Ratification of the 26th Amendment, reducing the voting age to 18.

Why Vote?

  • Arguments for Voting:

    • Civic Duty: Voting is a right earned through the sacrifices of soldiers and civil rights activists.
    • Democratic Participation: Without voting, democracy fails to manifest, as citizens lose their voices in governance.
    • Social Pressure: Friends and family may judge one's decision not to vote.

  • Counterarguments:

    • Influence: Individual votes often seem insignificant in large elections, with statistical analyses suggesting that a single vote rarely sways an election outcome.
    • Collective Impact: If everyone believed their vote was inconsequential, collective voter turnout would decline.

Who Votes? Costs and Benefits of Voting

  • People are more likely to vote when:

    • They perceive more personal benefits in participating.
    • The voting process is accessible and not overly burdensome.

  • Influencing Factors:

    • Strong community ties can enhance perceived benefits and motivations to vote.
    • Social shame or pressure can drive individuals to participate.
    • Stronger partisan alignment (intense support for one's party or opposition to another) increases the likelihood of voting.
    • Socioeconomic Status: Wealthier individuals tend to vote more frequently due to fewer barriers (e.g., transportation and time off work)

Voter Turnout Data Overview

  • Historical Voter Turnout Patterns (1789-2020):

    • Figure 12.2 outlines trends in voter turnout for presidential and midterm elections.
    • Significant events affecting turnout, such as the lowering of the voting age and progressive reforms.

  • 2024 Election Statistics:

    • Sixty-five percent of voting-age Americans participated in the 2024 election.
    • Breakdown of turnout by election type from 1980-2024:
    • Presidential Elections: 65%
    • Mid-term Elections: 52%

  • Age Influence on Voting (2024):

    • Voters aged 65 and older are 57% more likely to vote compared to those aged 18 to 24.
    • Turnout percentages by age group in recent elections:
    • 18-24 Years: 47.7% (2016), 60.2% (2020), 70.0% (2024)
    • 25-44 Years: 47.7% (2016), 60.2% (2020), 74.7% (2024)
    • 45-64 Years: 47.7% (2016), 60.2% (2020), 70.0% (2024)
    • 65 and Older: 47.7% (2016), 60.2% (2020), 74.7% (2024)

Gender and Voting Trends

  • Voter Turnout by Sex (1964-2024):
    • Female Turnout: 61%
    • Male Turnout: 57%
    • Notable: Women showed a higher turnout in recent elections, influenced by the ratification of the 26th amendment lowering voting age.

Voting by Race/Ethnicity

  • Presidential Election Turnout by Race/Ethnicity (1992-2024):
    • White, Non-Hispanic: 71%
    • Black: 60%
    • Asian: 57%
    • Hispanic: 51%
  • Note: Changes in data collection methodology may affect comparability.

Reasons for Non-Voting (2024)

  • Self-reported reasons for not voting include:
    • Not interested: 19.7%
    • Too busy/conflicting schedule: 17.8%
    • Dislike for candidates/campaign issues: 14.7%
    • Illness/disability: 12.4%
    • Other reasons: 12.2%
    • Out of town: 7.4%
    • Registration problems: 3.6%
    • Inconvenient polling place: 2.4%
    • Transportation problems: 2.2%
    • Bad weather: 0.3%

How Do People Decide Who to Vote For?

  • Influence of Current and Past Performance:
    • Voters often evaluate candidates based on past performance with the question: "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" (This is termed "Performance voting").
  • Policy Impact:
    • Some voters may focus heavily on a particularly significant issue (known as "Single issue voting") where differing circumstances may define the most important issue at any given time (referred to as "Issue voting").

Party Identity in Voting

  • Role of Partisan Identity:
    • The political party affiliation is the strongest predictor of voter behavior, termed "partisan voting."
    • Approximately 90% of individuals possess some level of party identity.
    • About 90% of those with party identity tend to support their party's presidential candidate consistently, leading to higher voter turnout based on party affiliations.

Campaigns

  • Essentials of Campaigning:
    • Key factors for effective campaign strategy include:
    • Candidate Qualities:
      • Qualified to serve in the role, trustworthy, relatable (understanding or representing voters' interests).
    • Communicating the Message:
      • Voter receptiveness varies dependent on the candidate, the campaign's research efforts, and the socio-political climate.

Political Advertisements

  • Experience with Political Ads:

    • The impact of political advertisements is often dependent on the viewer's location, especially with national ads focused on swing states.
    • Nature of Political Ads:
    • Negative ads can sometimes provide more information than positive ones.
    • Goals of advertisements can include name recognition, persuading undecided voters, and increasing turnout.

  • Effectiveness of Ads:

    • The effectiveness of ads is debated, influenced by the competitive nature of campaigns.
    • Microtargeting capabilities through digital ads may increase effectiveness but can vary in reach based on audience engagement.

  • Historical Examples of Ads:

    • Early advertisement: "I Like Ike" (1952).
    • Famous negative advertisement: "Daisy" (1964).
    • Positive advertisement: "Morning in America" (1984).
    • Modern advertisement example: "Pero Ya No" (2020).
    • Negative and informative example: "Windsurfing" (2004).

Community Engagement in Campaigns

  • Components include:
    • Campaign Rallies
    • Town Hall Meetings
    • Community Events
    • Debates

These detailed notes provide a comprehensive overview intended to guide understanding and retention of concepts covered in PS 101 regarding voting patterns, election processes, and strategic campaign elements.