Chapter 7: Public Opinion

Chapter 7: Public Opinion

Chapter Objectives

  • By the end of this chapter, you should be able to:
    • LO 7-1: Discuss what “public opinion” is and how we measure it.
    • LO 7-2: Outline the major factors that shape public opinion.
    • LO 7-3: Summarize the arguments for and against the claim that low levels of political knowledge among ordinary voters affect American democracy.
    • LO 7-4: Discuss the relationship between public opinion and public policy.

Should We Trust Opinion Polls?

  • Limits of public opinion surveys:
    • There are important limits to what public opinion surveys can tell us.
    • Most people possess limited knowledge about government and policy.
    • Despite this, citizens manage to find policies and candidates that align with their values.

Why Does Public Opinion Matter to Me?

  • Contribution of polls:
    • Polls contribute to national debate, policymaking, and news content.
  • Historical inaccuracies:
    • Reflect on instances when polls were inaccurate; consider the implications of these inaccuracies.
  • Importance of public opinion:
    • Public opinion is essential for understanding societal attitudes and influencing political decisions.

How Do We Measure Public Opinion?

  • Random Sampling:
    • Definition: Random sampling is the method used to select survey respondents in a way that allows each individual an equal chance of being chosen.
    • Importance: Ensures that the sample accurately reflects the population being studied.
  • Sampling Error:
    • Definition: The margin of error in polling indicates the extent to which the sample results may differ from the actual public opinion.
    • Acceptable Error: Typically, an acceptable sampling error falls within 3-5%.
    • Activity: Look up a poll and find the “margin of error” to understand its implications.

How Do We Ask Questions?

  • Question Design Mistakes:
    • Examples of misleading poll questions include:
    • "Would you support the disastrous candidate for Congress, John Doe?"
    • "Do you support government handouts?"
    • "Do you consider yourself conservative or a radical liberal?"

What Drives Opinion?

  • Political Socialization:
    • Factors influencing political opinion include:
    • Family
    • Religion
    • School
    • Peer Groups
    • Media
    • Discussion Prompts: What else shapes personal political identity?

Knowledge Check: Impressionable Years Hypothesis

  • Theory Description:
    • This theory posits that political experiences during formative years significantly shape a person’s political views and affiliations.
  • Generational Influence:
    • Discuss how your generation’s political experiences inform your current views.
  • Example Sharing:
    • Encourage sharing personal anecdotes related to the Impressionable Years Hypothesis.

Demographic Factors

Gender
  • Women’s Political Preferences:
    • Women are more likely than men to support:
    • Universal healthcare
    • Environmental regulations
  • Women’s Opposition:
    • Women are less likely than men to favor:
    • Cutting taxes at the expense of social services
    • Military intervention
Race and Ethnicity
  • Black Americans:
    • More likely to oppose the death penalty.
    • More likely to advocate for increased attention to discrimination issues.
  • Whites:
    • Less likely to report negative experiences with the criminal justice system than Black Americans.
Religion
  • Religious Influence on Opinions:
    • Religious individuals are more likely to:
    • Oppose abortion
    • Oppose same-sex marriage
    • Prompt for exploration: How might religious beliefs affect views on immigration and other societal issues?

Political Partisanship and Ideology

  • Influence of Partisanship and Ideology:
    • Partisanship and ideology are significant influences on public opinion, following familial influences.
  • National Stage Impact:
    • Discuss how partisanship is visible and impactful on the national stage.
  • Societal Discussion:
    • Is the existence of strong partisanship and ideology harmful to societal cohesion?

Political Ideology

  • Definition:
    • Political ideology refers to a set of beliefs or values regarding what policies the government should pursue.
  • Measurement of Ideology:
    • Methods include:
    • Self-identification
    • Participation in quizzes like the Pew Research Center Policy Typology Quiz (link provided).

Political Information and Public Opinion

  • Public Knowledge Assessment:
    • Evaluate if the public is sufficiently informed about politics and government matters.
  • Information Sufficiency Inquiry:
    • Determine how much political information is considered adequate for an informed electorate.

Let’s Practice What We’ve Learned

  • Practical Exercise:
    • Complete the provided poll.
    • Discuss the outcomes of the poll and the initial questions.
    • Reflection: What stood out from the experience?
    • Assess the reliability of the poll results and the rationale behind the assessment.

Summary

  • Key Learnings:
    • Ability to discuss what “public opinion” is and how it can be measured.
    • Understanding the major factors that shape public opinion.
    • Summary of arguments regarding political knowledge levels impacting democracy.
    • Exploration of the relationship between public opinion and public policy.