05) Terrorism as an Asymmetric Conflict

Foundational Definitions of Asymmetric Conflict

  • General Definition of Asymmetry: An asymmetric conflict occurs when at least one of the contending parties is not utilizing traditional or conventional means to conduct the struggle. This mismatch in resources and tactics defines the nature of the engagement.

  • Perspective of the "Big Actor":

    • The Big Actor typically represents the State or an established power.

    • It seeks to defeat its opponent through traditional or "orthodox" means.

    • Resources utilized by the Big Actor include formal military and police staff.

    • Operations are conducted within the constraints of the legal system and societal ethics.

  • Perspective of the "Small Actor":

    • The Small Actor is inherently aware of its physical or conventional weakness compared to the state mechanism.

    • Because it cannot win via traditional military force, it seeks an alternative strategy.

    • Geopolitical Strategy: Operations are frequently placed outside physical frontiers to intentionally avoid the reach of legal systems.

    • Definition of Victory: In this paradigm, simply surviving is considered a triumph.

    • Influence Objectives: Its primary goal is to exert influence over public opinion and the decision-making processes of the Big Actor.

Operational Characteristics of Asymmetric Warfare

  • Indefinite Operation Areas: There are no clearly defined borders or conventional front lines. Interaction can occur anywhere.

  • Media Exploitation: Actions are specifically designed to be exploited in the media to amplify their psychological effect.

  • Strategic Triumphs: The criterion for success is minimalist; as long as the group is not losing or has not been eradicated, it has achieved a triumph.

  • Lack of Scruples: These conflicts are often characterized by the philosophy that "the end justifies every mean." Consequently, moral or ethical constraints are often discarded.

  • Modern Weaponization: The conflict utilizes non-traditional weapons, including:

    • Informatics (cyber-warfare/information technology).

    • Communications infrastructure.

    • Trafficking networks and illicit economies.

  • Ubiquity of Action: The Small Actor possesses the capacity to act almost anywhere globally, regardless of geographical proximity to a specific objective.

The Clausewitzian Trinitarian System: The Perspective of the State

Clausewitz described war as a holistic entity, famously defined by a paradoxical trinity. To maintain the strength of the State, these three pillars must remain intact:

  1. The People (The Passionate Pillar):

    • Represents the primary tendencies and passions of the population.

    • Critical Vulnerability: If the population does not back the conflict, the system faces collapse because this fundamental pillar is broken.

  2. The Commander and His Army (The Pillar of Will):

    • This represents the active application of force and the collective will to execute the conflict.

  3. The Government (The Rational Pillar):

    • This encompasses the overall capacities and decision-making of the state, extending beyond simple military force.

    • Includes police and control forces, economic capacity, international alliances, and state-level technology.

Historical Case Study: The War in Vietnam

  • Historical Context: The war in Vietnam officially ended with the signing of pullout and cease-fire accords in Paris.

  • Outcome: Despite its status as a global superpower, the United States eventually signed what was characterized as capitulation in Vietnam.

  • Analytical Inquiry: Analysts must ask why the US, possessing overwhelming traditional military superiority, was forced to sign these accords. This serve as a primary example of how a Big Actor can fail in an asymmetric environment when the Trinitarian System is compromised (e.g., loss of popular support).

The Clausewitzian Trinitarian System: The Perspective of Terrorist Organizations

Terrorist groups mirror the Clausewitzian trinity but adapt the components to their specific asymmetric needs:

  1. Support Group (The Passionate Pillar/The Sympathizers):

    • Consists of the population that may not actively participate in violence but feels deep sympathy for the terrorist group or their cause.

    • Strategic Objective: This is the terrorists' main objective! They aim to position themselves as the best alternative to the existing State to influence political decisions.

    • Tactical Warning: Groups must be careful with the level of violence used. If the violence is perceives as excessive or senseless, the group risks losing this vital support base.

    • Example (ETA): The group ETA suffered significant loss of sympathy following the killing of Miguel Ángel Blanco and the Hipercor attack.

    • Contemporary Comparison: Evaluative questions must be raised regarding how groups like AQ (Al-Qaeda) or Daesh manage this support pillar.

  2. Activists (The Pillar of Will/The Active Actors):

    • These are the individuals who participate directly in the conflict.

    • Includes members of commandoes, armed groups, and logistical cells.

  3. Leaders (The Rational Pillar):

    • Consists of the command structure that provides strategic direction and rationalizes the group's actions.

The AIDA Model in Terrorist Strategy

Terrorist organizations utilize the AIDA model to manage their influence through media and propaganda:

  1. Attention: The group must do something "catchy" or shocking to capture global attention.

  2. Interest and Desire:

    • The group seeks to generate a specific psychological response in the audience.

    • The victim mindset: "Phew! I could have been the victim; this time I am free from dying." This creates a visceral emotional connection between the public and the event.

  3. Action:

    • The ultimate goal is to force a specific behavior or response from the government.

    • Desired actions include policy concessions or favorable political decisions.

  • The Role of Reminders: Periodic attacks are required to demonstrate that the group still possesses the capacity to strike.

  • Essential Nature of Propaganda: Media and propaganda are vital. For example, during Daesh kidnappings, the group would record videos over and over again to ensure the final product met their psychological operations (PSYOPS) goals before the actual execution.

Strategic Procedures in Asymmetric Strategy

Terrorists employ a variety of procedures to advance their goals and weaken their opponents:

  1. Attacks: Direct kinetic actions against targets.

  2. Weakening the State: Erosion of the government's legitimacy and resources.

  3. Subversion: Actively not recognizing authorities or the existing social contract.

  4. Passional Movement: Leveraging ideology and emotion to mobilize the support base.

  5. Intimidation: Using fear to control behavior.

  6. Blackmailing: Threatening the State or individuals to gain concessions.

  7. Kidnapping: Abductions for political leverage or ransom.

  8. Guerrilla Warfare: Using hit-and-run tactics to negate the State's traditional military advantage.

  9. Occupying Territory: A relatively new development in modern terrorism, exemplified by Daesh, where the group actually attempts to govern and hold specific geographical landmasses.