Phillips Curve

  • relationship between unemployment and inflation.

  • Initial theory: inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment.

  • Economic growth leads to inflation, resulting in more jobs and less unemployment.

  • Model assumes economic growth is driven by increases in Aggregate Demand (AD).

Short-Run Phillips Curve (SRPC)

  • Simplistic relationship between unemployment and inflation was disproved in the 1970s due to stagflation.

  • Caused by the increase in the cost of production derived from the OPEC Petrol Crisis.

Long-Run Phillips Curve (LRPC)

  • In the long run, there is no trade-off between inflation and unemployment.

  • People adapt their expectations, and the trade-off disappears.

  • Inflation and unemployment are unrelated in the long run because people can plan and adapt.

  • LRPC is vertical at the natural rate of unemployment.

  • The natural rate of unemployment is where the actual rate of inflation equals the expected rate of inflation.

  • The economy moves towards this equilibrium rate in the long run.

SRAS and SRPC

  • Shifts in the SRAS correspond to shifts in the SRPC (inversely).

  • Example: SRAS moves outwards, SRPC shifts, unemployment decreases, and inflation initially stays the same.

AD and SRPC

  • Movements along the SRPC correspond to shifts in AD.