CH 2

Introduction: The Role of Rules in Campaigns and Elections

• The Obama Case Study (2000–2004): The political trajectory of Barack Obama illustrates how rules and their manipulation shape careers.

  • In the $2000$ Democratic primary for a U.S. House seat, state senator Barack Obama lost to incumbent Bobby Rush by $31$ points. Obama struggled in Black neighborhoods where University of Chicago professors were viewed with suspicion, but performed well in wealthier North Side neighborhoods, including the "Gold Coast."

  • Strategic Redistricting: In the spring of $2001$, the Illinois Democratic Party controlled the redistricting process following the $2000$ census. Obama worked with consultant John Corrigan to draw a new state senate district stretching from the South Side to the wealthy Gold Coast, facilitating fundraising and a record of legislative achievement.

  • Outcome: This rule-based maneuvering allowed Obama to run for the U.S. Senate in $2004$.

• The Framework of Election Rules: Every democracy depends on rules to govern political life. These rules are not neutral; they reflect compromises among competing values and are often shaped by politicians to favor their own party or faction.

• Preserving Democracy: Rules also serve as a check on self-interest. Following the $2020$ presidential election, Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the results failed because local, state, and federal actors, including judges and election officials, adhered to the existing rules for counting votes.

• Key Questions of the Chapter:

  • Who can vote?

  • How do people vote and how are votes counted?

  • Who can run for office?

  • When are elections held?

  • Where do candidates run?

  • Who wins?

Who Can Vote: Eligibility and the Evolution of the Electorate

• Constitutional Amendments Expanding the Franchise:

  • Fifteenth Amendment ($1870$): Stated the right to vote cannot be denied based on race or color.

  • Nineteenth Amendment ($1920$): Invalidated voting restrictions based on sex.

  • Twenty-Fourth Amendment ($1964$): Outlawed poll taxes in federal elections.

  • Twenty-Sixth Amendment ($1971$): Lowered the voting age from $21$ to $18$.

• Historical Discriminatory Tactics (The Jim Crow Era):

  • Poll Taxes: Fees required to vote, primarily used to disenfranchise Black, Native American, Asian American, and poor White citizens.

  • Literacy Tests: Purported measures of English comprehension administered with high discretion by local officials to fail specific groups.

  • White Primaries: Primaries in the Democratic-dominated South that excluded Black voters, effectively deciding the general election winner.

• The Voting Rights Act of $1965$ (VRA):

  • A landmark law that invalidated literacy tests and established federal oversight.

  • Preclearance: Under Section $5$, "covered" jurisdictions (those with histories of discrimination) had to submit any change in election law to the U.S. Department of Justice for approval.

  • $1975$ Expansion: Protection extended to Native Americans, Asian Americans, and Latino Americans. Turnout for people of color in covered areas increased by $4-8$ percentage points between $1980$ and $2016$.

  • $1982$ Amendments: Established that voting power could not be weakened even as an unintentional by-product; proving discriminatory intent was no longer required.

• Modern Restrictions and State Variations:

  • Citizenship and Age: All states require voters to be native or naturalized citizens and at least $18$ years old (with minor local exceptions for $16$ and $17$-year-olds).

  • Mental Illness: State laws vary and are often inconsistently enforced.

  • Felon Disenfranchisement: Nearly every state bans incarcerated felons from voting (except D.C., Maine, and Vermont). States differ on rights for those on parole, probation, or who have completed sentences.

  • Florida Case Study: In $2018$, Florida voters restored rights to felons upon sentence completion. In response, the legislature required payment of all fines and fees (averaging $4,000$ in neighboring Alabama), which critics likened to a poll tax.

Voter Registration and Identification Rules

• Registration Systems: Every state except North Dakota requires registration.

  • Automatic Voter Registration (AVR): Currently in $20$ states and D.C.; registers citizens interacting with agencies like the DMV unless they opt out. In Oregon, AVR increased turnout by $2-3$ points in $2016$.

  • Same-Day/Election Day Registration (EDR): Used in $20$ states and D.C.; allows registration at the polling place with proof of residency/ID. Studies suggest it increases turnout by about $3$ points.

• Voter Identification Laws:

  • $36$ states request or require ID. "Strict" laws require photo ID (driver's license or passport).

  • Impact on Turnout: While ID laws reduce turnout among those lacking ID (dropping nearly $3$ points in the North Carolina $2016$ general election), they do not significantly lower overall turnout rates because political parties mobilize to counter the effects.

• Partisan Assumptions and Complexities:

  • Republicans typically favor restrictions/ID laws; Democrats favor easier registration. However, effects can be surprising: EDR in Wisconsin appeared to help Republicans, and felon re-enfranchisement in Florida might not have swung the $2016$ election (where Trump won by $113,000$ and Rubio won by $700,000$).

Primary Election Structures

• Closed Primary: Only registered party members can vote.

• Semi-Closed Primary: Unaffiliated voters and party members can vote.

• Open Primary: Any voter can participate in either primary (but not both).

• Blanket (Jungle) Primary: All candidates are listed on one ballot; voters can mix and match parties. The Supreme Court invalidated this in $2000$ (California Democratic Party v. Jones) as a violation of the First Amendment right of association.

• Nonpartisan Variations:

  • Louisiana: If a candidate gets $50.0\%$ in the primary, they win. Otherwise, the top two advance.

  • Washington/California: The top two advance regardless of vote percentage or party.

  • Alaska: The top four advance.

How People Vote: Convenience Voting and Security

• Convenience Voting Methods:

  • Early Voting: In-person voting before Election Day (period ranges from $4$ to $45$ days).

  • Absentee Voting: Requesting a ballot by mail. Some states require an "excuse"; most do not.

  • Vote-by-Mail (Postal Voting): Ballots are automatically mailed to all registered voters. Used in Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah, and Washington.

• The 2020 Pandemic Shift:

  • In $2016$, $60.0\%$ voted in person on Election Day. In $2020$, only $30.0\%$ did, with $43.0\%$ voting by mail and $26.0\%$ voting in person early.

  • The Partisan Divide: Donald Trump’s criticism of mail-in ballots led to $57.0\%$ of Democrats voting by mail compared to only $33.0\%$ of Republicans.

• Challenges and Logistics:

  • Ballot Chasing: Campaigns following up with voters to ensure they mail ballots.

  • Ballot Cure: Correcting technical mistakes on a ballot.

  • Naked Ballots: Mail ballots missing the required internal "secrecy envelope" (e.g., in Pennsylvania, $1.0\%$ were invalidated for this).

  • Wait Times: Inequality persists in in-person voting; in $2020$, $31.0\%$ of Black voters waited over $30$ minutes, compared to $18.0\%$ of White voters.

• Fraud Claims: Extensive research shows voter fraud is rare. A Washington state study of $4.5 \times 10^6$ voters found only $14$ possible cases of deceased people "voting."

Who Can Run: Qualifications for Office

• Federal Requirements (U.S. Constitution):

  • House: At least $25$ years old; U.S. citizen for $7$ years; inhabitant of the state.

  • Senate: At least $30$ years old; U.S. citizen for $9$ years; inhabitant of the state.

  • President: At least $35$ years old; U.S. resident for $14$ years; "natural-born" citizen.

• State and Local Requirements: Vary by state. Louisiana requires gubernatorial candidates to be residents for $5$ years; Minnesota requires only $1$ year.

• Ballot Access:

  • Tennessee requires only $25$ signatures for a House seat.

  • Texas requires signatures equal to $1.0\%$ of all voters in the previous gubernatorial election (approx. $47,000$ signatures in $2018$) for new parties.

• Term Limits:

  • The $22nd$ Amendment limits the President to two terms.

  • U.S. Term Limits, Inc. v. Thornton ($1995$) invalidated state-imposed term limits on Congress.

  • $36$ states limit governors; $15$ states limit state legislators.

When Elections Are Held: The Timing and the Permanent Campaign

• Federal Timing: First Tuesday after the first Monday in November. House every $2$ years; President every $4$; Senate every $6$.

• The Permanent Campaign: Because candidates know the dates years in advance, campaigning and fundraising never stop.

  • John Delaney and Andrew Yang announced their $2020$ presidential runs in $2017$.

  • Critique: David Jolly (R-Fla.) noted that constant fundraising is "beneath the dignity of the office."

Where to Run: Reapportionment and Redistricting

• Reapportionment: Adjusting the number of House seats per state based on the decennial census. After $2020$, Texas gained $2$ seats; California were among several losing $1$ seat.

• Redistricting Rules:

  • One Person, One Vote: Established by Baker v. Carr ($1962$) and Gray v. Sanders ($1963$). Districts must be roughly equal in population. Evenwel v. Abbott ($2016$) confirmed total population (not just eligible voters) is the standard.

  • Gerrymandering Techniques:

    • Packing: Concentrating the opposition in a few districts.

    • Cracking: Spreading the opposition out to prevent them from winning any district.

    • Hijacking: Forcing two incumbents of the opposite party to run against each other.

  • Partisan Gerrymandering: A $2019$ Supreme Court ruling (Rucho v. Common Cause) declared that partisan gerrymandering is not justiciable in federal courts.

  • Racial Gerrymandering: Shaw v. Reno ($1993$) criticized "highly irregular" districts (like North Carolina's $12th$) drawn based on race.

• Independent Commissions: $14$ states use commissions to reduce partisanship. Evidence suggests they produce more competitive and compact districts.

Who Wins: Counting and Comparison

• Plurality Rule ("First Past the Post"): The candidate with the most votes wins, even if it is not a majority.

• Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV): Voters rank candidates by preference. If no majority is reached, the bottom candidate is eliminated and their votes reallocated. Used in Maine and Alaska.

• Proportional Representation (PR): Common in Europe (Netherlands, Israel, etc.); seats are allocated to parties based on their total percentage of the national vote.

• Duverger’s Law: Systems with single-member districts and plurality voting tend toward a two-party system. Voters engage in strategic voting to avoid "wasting" their vote on third-party candidates who are seen as "spoilers."

Questions & Discussion

• Q: What are arguments for and against term limits?

  • A: For: Keeps representatives closer to the people and encourages turnover. Against: Reduces institutional expertise and incentivizes short-term policy goals over long-term solutions.

• Q: How have electoral rules affected the ability of Black Americans to vote and elect representatives?

  • A: Historically, tactics like literacy tests and White primaries suppressed their vote. The VRA mandated preclearance and supported the creation of majority-minority districts to ensure protected voting power, though the Shelby County decision has weakened federal oversight.

• Q: How does plurality rule disadvantage minor parties?

  • A: Under Duverger's Law, plurality rule in single-member districts encourages voters to defect from third-party candidates to a major-party candidate they prefer more (strategic voting) to avoid an even worse outcome.