FW 453: 1/12-1/14: Introduction

FW 453: 1/12-1/14: Introduction

Alligators in NC

• NC WRC approved NC Alligator Management plan in fall 2017

  • conservation

  • education

  • research

  • “provide opportunities for public enjoyment of alligators through hunting and wildlife viewing”

• 

• Historically hunting was illegal starting with ESA in 1973

• populations rebounded and alligators were removed from ESA in 1987

  • legal harvest existed

  • not in NC

• recent sightings have risen

• populations thought to be increasing

• public concerned about safety

• Questions:

  • What should WRC do?

  • how should money be allocated?

  • research vs education vs management

  • nuisance individuals

    • public safety

    • public involvement

  • legal harvest

• Goal: sustain viable populations

  • how do you do that

  • what info do you need

  • legal harvest

    • where and how many should be taken

• Problem:

  • What kinds of methods do WRC need to use

    • how do these methods provide info to meet their objectives

    • what kind of research should they undertake

    • what kind of management needs to be done

    • how do they satisfy the public

      • who are the stakeholders

Problem II: Conservation Planning in Puerto Rico

Interest and Motivation

• increase conservation areas

  • PR DRNA increase protected land

  • 8% to 15%

  • species persistence

  • economical/ag persistence

Agencies

• DNER

• Department of Agriculture

• US FWS

• Tourism

• US Forest Service

• Planning Board

• Municipalities

NGOs/Groups

• Mesa de Café de Sombra Casa Pueblo

• Arboles y Corales

• Protectores de Cuenca

• Landowners

  • Conservation oriented

  • Business oriented

• Farmers

  • Coffee

  • Other products

Portfolio of Actions

• Types of actions

  • Incentives

  • Legacy Funds (acquisition)

  • Easements, Auxiliary Forests

  • Individual landowner actions

• Groups of actions

  • “Transform” the structure (trees)

  • “Modify” the structure (chemicals)

  • “Help change” the structure (labor)

Objectives

• Quantify the landscape’s “ecological value”

  • Biodiversity

    • Frogs, birds, bees

• Measure response to actions and stressors

  • How does the ecosystem respond to changes in landuse?

• Economic/agricultural value

  • Coffee and production

  • Important part of community

Problem

• What are the specific objectives/goals that need to be addressed?

• What kinds of methods would need to be employed?

• What kinds of monitoring/research should be done?

• How would you address both the concerns of biologists and the coffee producers/farmers?

  • inteview/survey landowners

  • AM radio talks

• Are there other stakeholders?

  • farmers/landowners

• What information would be used to inform a decision?

• How would you ultimately make a decision about which actions to take where?

Case Study: Conservation Planning in Puerto Rico

Interest and Motivation

• Increase conservation areas

  • DR DRNA increase protected land 8% to 15%

• Species persistence

• Economical/ag persistence

Focal Area

• bio diversity

• existing reserves

• multiple organizations with shared goals

• public awareness

Conservation Design Project

• develop decision framework to optimally allocate conservation efforts in a dynamic environment

• decide where and when to implement actions to meet objectives under set of constraints

• balance of competing objectives and associated costs

Why are decisions hard?

• science vs politics

• education methods

• community beliefs

• may not know all the possible actions

• objectives may be complex or contradictory

  • or in dispute

• system dynamics may be poorly known

  • we don’t know how species respond to habitat changes for example

• solution may be difficult to figure out

  • optimization

• many sources of uncertainty

Question

• how do we make decisions in FWCB?

• formal process?

  • no

• same every time?

  • no

• descriptive decision making

  • what is usually done in practice

  • considers tendencies, biases, limitations

  • “black box” approach

• better option: prescriptive decision making

  • rational framework

  • more about PROCESS than DECISION/ANSWER

  • essential core steps

  • logical and transparent process

    • process can be controlled not ultimate outcome

    • assumptions explicitly stated and transparent

  • = STRUCTURED DECISION MAKING

Traditional ‘black box’ uses of wildlife monitoring info

• let’s say we have info on habitat quality, breeding conditions, and population trends

• Problems with this:

  • not explicit or transparent

  • many unidentified and unstated assumptions

  • one person can think a change is normal while another sees an issue

  • knowledge is not transferable

  • no formal learning component

What is Structured Decision Making?

• Decision problem is broken into component elements

  • objectives (what we want it to do for us)

  • science and understanding (how the system works)

Structured Decision Making

• deliberate

• thorough

• robust to uncertainty

  • more likely to achieve objectives

• transparent

• explicit

• easily documented

• replicable

When is SDM Appropriate?

• not relevant for every small problem

PROACT

• Problem

• Objectives

• Alternatives

• Consequences (models)

• Tradeoffs

Problem Definition

• Foundation of SDM

• Hardest step in process

• Values driven

• Decision statements reflect societal values: scientific, economic, political…

• May take multiple attempts

  • revisit the problem definition

• Steps

  • defining problems as decisions

  • solving the right problem

  • careful framing of the problem

  • develop a problem statement

  • revise as needed

Objectives

• What you really care about

  • values

• Critical in order to:

  • create alternatives

  • compare alternatives

  • choose pertinent info

  • explain your decision to others

Recipe for good objectives

1. articulate concerns and wishes

2. convert concerns to objectives

3. structure objectives

   1. classify objectives

   2. distinguish fundamental and means objectives

   3. create objectives hierarchy

4. create measurable attributes for each objective

5. repeat as needed

Alternatives

• human nature to want to focus first on alternatives when making decisions

  • tend to limit ourselves to a smaller set of alternatives

  • we may anchor on the first suggested alternative

• should be created after you decide, where you’d like to go (what is important: objectives)

• should be focused directly on achieving your objectives

Generating Alternatives

1. Focus on fundamental objectives

2. Address conflicting objectives

3. Challenge constraints

4. Visualize and/or use diagrams

5. Create groups of alternatives—portfolios and strategies

6. Revisit objectives

Consequences

• Understand the consequences of different actions in terms of our objectives

  • consequences link objectives and actions

  • models are tools that help us predict consequences

Through modeling, we:

• structure the analytical problem

• lend transparency to the analysis

  • models are explicit

  • capture complex info/relationships

• develop predictions of consequences

  • terms relevant to our objectives

  • incorporate uncertainty

Predicting Consequences

• Consequence table

  • puts a lot of info in a concise and orderly format

  • easy to compare alternatives, objective by objective

  • initial framework for assessing tradeoffs

Consequences Summary

• Data, expert opinion, literature

  • predictions from models

  • relationships linking components of model or system

  • when it doubt use expert opinion

  • lack of data should not stop process

  • helps to identify where monitoring/resources are needed

Trade-offs

• Identify “best” (optimal) solution

  • tie together alternative actions, objective function, and system model

• can be done for single or multiple objectives

  • increases complexity

• can incorporate many different types of uncertainty

• solution method depends on the structure of the problem

• goal is to solve the problem

• identify best alternative action, as measured by the objectives, using predictions from the models

• wide variety of analytical tools exist to find action

• need to know where to look in the toolbox

Decision Analysis Process

• Identify the decision situation and objectives

• Identify and separate fundamental and means objectives (essential)

• 

Conservation Design Project

• Develop decision framework to optimally allocate conservation