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As Figure 2 shows, there are considerable variations between countries in the official age(s) of retirement. It tends to be lower in LEDCs, where life expectancy is less. The old age dependency ratio is the measure of pensioners per 100 people of working age. It is calculated as follows: Elderly population (65+) Working population (15–64) Figure 3 is a plot of known and predicted old age dependency ratios for four MEDCs. It shows a ratio of around 25% in the UK in 2000. This means that, at present, there are about 25 pensioners for every 100 workers. However, the ratio is predicted to increase sharply after 2010, climbing to over 40% by 2040. Expressing this another way, the present ratio of 4 workers to support every pensioner is predicted to fall to 2.5 workers per pensioner by 2040 (Figure 4). While Figure 3 suggests that the ageing (or ‘greying’) of the population is a demographic characteristic common to many MEDCs, the intensity of this phenomenon varies from one country to another. The UK already has a more aged population structure than the majority of MEDCs, so that the predicted increase in the ratio, whilst quite marked after 2010, is not as rapid as those predicted for the other three countries. The greatest change of all is expected in Italy. Historically, for a long time Italian birth rates were considerably higher than those of Italy’s European neighbours to the west and north, which led to old age dependency ratios that were low in the 1950s and 60s. However, more recent demographic data (Figure 5) show that by 1999 Italian fertility levels had fallen to the point where the crude birth rate was actually lower than the death rate, resulting in a natural decrease in population. Although a similar general trend is exhibited in Figure 3 for the USA, continuing in-migration, particularly of Hispanics from Mexico and other Spanish-speaking countries in the region, is predicted to keep the ratio at lower levels than elsewhere in the developed world. Causes of ageing populations Ageing populations can be viewed as the result of technological and economic progress that has led to reductions in both birth and death rates. Fertility rates have been falling fast in MEDCs, to the point where four EU countries are now experiencing natural decreases in population (Figure 5). Fertility rates are also coming down in LEDCs, where lower birth rates typically accompany industrial and economic development. Of equal, if not greater significance, is increased life expectancy and the consequent lowering of death rates. Improved primary health care and screening, the development of new drugs and general advances in medical knowledge and treatment, mean that people are living longer. Some diseases and conditions that were considered to be untreatable or inoperable only a few years ago can now be dealt with as a matter of routine. The net result of these trends will be a doubling of the number of people over 60 in the world over the next 30 years, from 600 million (10% of the world total) in 2000 to 1.4 billion (about 16% of the predicted total) in 2030. Pensioners will soon outnumber children in Europe and North America for the first time. Much of the predicted increase in the numbers of the over-60s will be in the better developed LEDCs, particularly September 2000 no.384 Ageing Populations – the Economic and social Consequences Geofile Online © Stanley Thornes (Publishers) Ltd 2000 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Percent 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Italy UK Germany USA Ratio of old people to workers Key Figure 3: Old age dependency ratios, 1950–2040 Source: OECD Figure 4: Workers per pensioner in the UK, 1950–2050 EU Countries experiencing natural decrease during 1999 Country Crude birth rate (per 1000) Death rate (per 1000) Change (per 1000) 0.3 DECREASE Change in population 2000-2010 Annual average change (%) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 –0.1 –0.1 –0.2 –0.3 Luxembourg Ireland Greece Netherlands Sweden Denmark France UK Austria Finland Spain Belgium Germany Italy Portugal 0.2 0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 INCREASE Germany Italy Sweden 9.3 9.1 9.9 10.3 9.9 10.6 –1.0 –0.8 –0.7 Figure 5: Predicted population change in