Moderates less likely to run for Congress in a polarized era (Thomsen 1998, 2000–2010)

Overview

  • Polarization in Congress makes moderates less likely to run for higher office.

  • Findings come from Danielle Thomsen's research on candidate entry decisions in a polarized era.

Thomsen 1998 state-legislators survey findings

  • Moderate Republicans were less likely than conservative Republicans to believe they could win a House primary and less likely to value a seat.

  • Democrats showed fewer differences between moderate and liberal members at that time, due to the Democratic Party’s composition then (more moderate to conservative Democrats in the House).

  • Source: 19981998 survey of state legislators.

Thomsen 2000–2010 congressional run data

  • Moderates in both parties are less likely to run than those who fit their party better: liberals in the Democratic Party and conservatives in the Republican Party.

  • Even with a low overall probability of running for Congress, 2000−20102000-2010 data show higher run likelihood for conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats than for moderates.

  • The pattern is illustrated by a graph identifying the ideologies of several members of Congress.

Mechanism: a polarization-induced vicious cycle

  • Greater polarization deters moderates from running for Congress.

  • The candidates who do run tend to be more ideologically doctrinaire.

  • When these candidates win, polarization is reinforced or exacerbated.