Comprehensive Study Notes on Middle Eastern Conflicts and Geopolitics (1954-2011)

Regional Conflicts and the Rise of Arab Nationalism (1954–1967)

The Middle East during the mid-twentieth century was characterized by a surge in Arab nationalism, significantly influenced by Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser. Nasser played a pivotal role in the Algerian War for Independence ($1954-1962$), specifically assisting Algerians in their efforts to expel the French. Simultaneously, Egypt became entangled in the Yemen Civil War ($1962-1970$), a conflict that pitted Republicans against Monarchists. While Nasser supported the Republicans, his involvement was not as successful as his efforts in Algeria. During this period, territorial tensions intensified as Israel sought to secure the Golan Heights. A significant point of contention for Israel was the lack of access to the Western Wall (the site of the Second Temple), which is considered the most holy place in Judaism; at that time, Israelis had been unable to visit the site for $19$ years. Regional neighbors Egypt, Jordan, and Syria shared a common goal of seeing Israel removed. Syria's control over the Golan Heights was perceived as a critical threat by Israel due to its geographical proximity.

Prelude to the Six-Day War and Nasser’s Maneuvers

The Six-Day War was preceded by escalating verbal disputes beginning in March $1967$. In one instance, a MiG fighter jet was shot down, further straining relations. Nasser's actions were heavily influenced by an inaccurate Soviet intelligence report, which claimed that Israeli troops were massing on the border. Between $1958$ and $1961$, Egypt and Syria had formed the United Arab Republic, a brief political union. Despite the dissolution of this union, the spirit of Pan-Arabism remained strong. Nasser, although realizing the Soviet intel was likely flawed, called up military reserves regardless. He also targetted the United Nations Emergency Force ($UNEF$), which had been stationed in the region since $1956$. Nasser demanded the removal of these peacekeepers, seeking a decisive victory reminiscent of the Suez Crisis. UN Secretary-General U Thant informed Nasser that he could not selectively remove portions of the force, stating it was an "all or nothing" situation. On May $18$, $1967$, Nasser officially requested the peacekeepers to leave. In doing so, he overlooked the fact that UN peacekeepers were the ones securing the Strait of Tiran, which allowed Israeli maritime movement. Once the UN left on May $22$, $1967$, Nasser closed the Strait, an act that sparked euphoria across the Arab world and made war nearly certain. Pressure from allies and internal threats to his leadership influenced this move; it was estimated that failing to close the Strait carried an $80\%$ chance of Nasser being overthrown and a $35\%$ chance of his execution.

Israeli Leadership and the MOKADE Plan

In response to the Arab mobilization, Israel called up all of its reserves, and the Israel Defense Forces ($IDF$) prepared for a defensive struggle. Prime Minister Levi Eshkol ($1895-1969$), who also served as the Defense Minister, led a fragile coalition government. While regarded as a good person, Eshkol suffered from poor health and lacked the stamina required for a wartime leader, leading many to demand his resignation in favor of Yitzhak Rabin. Despite political instability, the Israeli military developed a strategic plan known as MOKADE ("Focus"). The primary goal of MOKADE was the total destruction of the Egyptian Air Force through a preemptive strike. However, Israeli leadership was concerned about international perception regarding who started the war. They established three conditions for a preemptive strike: an imminent military threat, a reversal of the status quo, and the abandonment of Israel's fate by the international community. This period of high tension between May $22$ and June $5$, $1967$, became known as the "Waiting Period" ($Hamtana$). During this time, Israel looked to Western powers, specifically the United States, to apply diplomatic pressure on Nasser.

Abba Eban, Moshe Dayan, and the Outbreak of War

Abba Eban ($1915-2002$), Israel’s Ambassador to the United States, served as Israel's "secret weapon" due to his extreme eloquence and fluency in multiple languages. Eban had previously convinced the UN to recognize Israel in $1948$ and maintained a friendship with President Lyndon B. Johnson ($LBJ$). LBJ, described as insecure and profane, suggested the creation of an "international flotilla" to aid Israel, though Eban doubted the feasibility of such a multinational armada. Inside Israel, there was immense public pressure to install General Moshe Dayan ($1915-1981$) as the Secretary of Defense. Dayan was a seasoned warrior who had lost his eye in $1941$ while fighting Free French forces; an enemy sniper shot the scope of his gun, sending glass into his eye. PM Eshkol eventually felt threatened by Dayan's popularity. On May $28$, $1967$, Eshkol delivered a disastrous, nervous radio address after rejecting his original speech and struggling with a new one provided only minutes before the broadcast. This failure increased calls for Dayan's appointment. On May $29$, $1967$, Nasser publicly stated his goal was to restore conditions to those of $1948$. Fearing imminent destruction, an Israeli agent met secretly with U.S. Defense Secretary Robert S. McNamara ($1916-2009$). McNamara acknowledged the "debt of honor" the U.S. owed Israel for backing off in $1956$ and quietly signaled support for a preemptive strike.

The Six-Day War: June 5—June 10, 1967

The war began on the morning of June $5$, $1967$. Jordanian leaders attempted to warn Egypt of Israeli aircraft taking off, but the warning was never received because an Egyptian corporal was tuned to the incorrect radio frequency. In just three hours, Israeli bombers destroyed $85\%$ of Egypt's fighter jets, successfully eliminating the Egyptian Air Force by bombing every runway. By the afternoon, Israel had also destroyed two-thirds of the Syrian Air Force. On Day $1$, Israeli troops, including $70,000$ soldiers and $700$ tanks, pushed into the Sinai Peninsula, launching the Abu Agheila attack. On Day $2$, Egyptian commanders ordered a counter-attack followed by a heartbreaking retreat. By Day $3$, the Old City of Jerusalem and the West Bank fell to the $IDF$. Israeli soldiers were shocked and moved as they reached the Western Wall. By Day $5$, Egypt and Syria agreed to a ceasefire. Israel emerged with control over the Sinai Peninsula, the Golan Heights, and the West Bank, establishing new borders. The Arab world attempted to mask the failure with propaganda; Egyptian and Syrian radio falsely claimed to have shot down scores of Israeli planes. In reality, Israel lost only $46$ planes and $21$ pilots, largely due to a remarkable ground turn-around time of only $7.5$ minutes for their aircraft. During the conflict, the U.S. ship $USS$ Liberty was recording frequencies in the area; fearing American interference or recording of sensitive communications, Israeli forces attacked the ship. Both the U.S. and Israel ultimately decided to keep the details of the incident quiet.

The Age of Oil and the Rise of OPEC

The geopolitical landscape was increasingly defined by the "Age of Oil." Following the discovery of oil in Persia in $1908$, the British established the Anglo-Persian Oil Company in $1909$. Early agreements were heavily skewed, with Western companies keeping $90\%$ of profits while providing small royalties to local monarchs. Oil was subsequently discovered in Iraq ($1927$) and the Gulf States ($1931$). In $1950$, Saudi Arabia successfully demanded a $50/50$ profit-sharing deal with Western companies like Shell, Chevron, and Texaco. By the $1950s$, the Middle East was out-producing the United States. In $1960$, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Persia (Iran), and Venezuela formed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ($OPEC$). In Libya, King Idris I was toppled in $1969$ by Muammar al-Qadhafi ($1942-2011$), a young captain who modeled himself after Nasser’s "Free Officers." Qadhafi promoted himself to Colonel and nationalized Libyan oil, demanding that all companies provide $80\%$ of their revenue to the government. He sought to position himself as Nasser’s successor in Pan-Arabism following Nasser's death in September $1970$.

The War of Attrition and Sadat’s Strategy

Following the $1967$ defeat, Egypt engaged in the War of Attrition, characterized by artillery barrages and raids intended to remove the enemy's ability to fight through exhaustion. After Nasser's death, Anwar Sadat became President. Sadat's objectives were to force the U.S. to re-engage in the Arab-Israeli conflict, push the USSR for higher-grade weaponry, and create a credible threat to recover the Sinai Peninsula. He sought a "limited war" to achieve these goals. In a surprising move to signal his independent intentions, Sadat expelled $21,000$ Soviet advisors. By late $1972$, the USSR began providing advanced fighters. On October $24$, $1972$, Sadat convened his generals to announce the decision for war. He formed a formal alliance with Syria for a joint command. The date was set for Saturday, October $6$, $1973$, coinciding with Yom Kippur and the Jewish Sabbath. Sadat also secured the support of King Faisal of Saudi Arabia ($r. 1964-1975$), who agreed to use oil as a political weapon, provided the war lasted more than three days.

The Yom Kippur War (1973) and the Kissinger Diplomacy

The war began with a massive Egyptian artillery barrage of $10,000$ pounds in six minutes, as troops crossed the Suez Canal in rubber boats. They successfully breached the Bar-Lev Line, a series of artificial sand hills built by Israel, within the first day. By October $6$, Egypt had $80,000$ troops in the Sinai. Israeli PM Golda Meir ($1898-1978$), who was battling cancer, sought international aid. Israel managed to regroup by October $10$, pushing back toward the Canal. As the conflict intensified, the USSR began airlifting weapons to Egypt and Syria, prompting the U.S. to secretly send arms to Israel by October $14$. On October $17$, $OPEC$ announced oil production cuts and nearly doubled prices from approximately $\$2.90$ to $\$5.11$ per barrel. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger flew to Moscow to negotiate a ceasefire. This resulted in UN Resolution $338$, which called for an immediate ceasefire and the implementation of Resolution $242$ (the return to pre-$1967$ boundaries and acknowledgment of all regional states). Kissinger’s goals were to ensure Israel could repel attacks without humiliating Egypt and Syria, and to keep the Soviet Union out of the region.

The Camp David Accords and Sadat’s Assassination

In the late $1970s$, Egypt faced a severe economic crisis involving crop failures, "Bread Riots," and high inflation. Seeking to improve the economy and recover the Sinai, Sadat pivoted toward peace. In July $1977$, he launched a brief, four-day assault on Libya to distract from internal issues and distance himself from the USSR. Breaking with Pan-Arabism, Sadat expressed readiness to travel to Jerusalem to protect "Egyptian boy soldiers." In November $1977$, he visited Israel, meeting Prime Minister Menachem Begin. While much of his cabinet resigned in protest, Sadat appointed Boutros Boutros-Ghali to help negotiate. President Jimmy Carter ($1924-2024$) facilitated a summit at Camp David in September $1978$. The negotiations lasted $13$ days, involving intense $15$-hour sessions. At one point, when Sadat threatened to leave, Carter famously appealed to him as a personal friend. Carter also used signed photographs for Begin's grandchildren to emotionally persuade the Israeli PM to stay. The resulting accords led to Israel's withdrawal from Sinai and the establishment of diplomatic relations, while proposing a self-governing authority for the West Bank and Gaza. Sadat was assassinated on October $6$, $1981$, during a military ceremony by shooters shouting, "I shot the Pharaoh!"

The Iranian Revolution and Hostage Crisis

Jimmy Carter’s presidency was defined by a commitment to human rights, but his administration was destabilized by the situation in Iran. Iran, led by Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi ($r. 1941-1979$), had undergone the "White Revolution" reforms, including land redistribution, literacy efforts, and women’s suffrage. However, the Shah ruled as an autocrat, using the secret police ($SAVAK$) to suppress dissent. In the U.S., Iranian Ambassador Ardeshir Zahedi was known for throwing legendary parties to maintain Western support. On New Year’s Eve $1977$, Carter gave an impromptu, overly-complimentary speech in Tehran that ignored the growing internal unrest. Protests in Qom in January $1978$ sparked a $40$-day cycle of mourning and renewed demonstrations. By October $1978$, a coalition of Marxists, centrists, and Islamists united against the Shah. The Shah fled in January $1979$, and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned from exile in Paris. Khomeini’s PR team presented him as a symbol of morality, leading to the declaration of the Islamic Republic in April $1979$. On November $4$, $1979$, students stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, taking $52$ hostages for $444$ days. The crisis and the failed rescue attempt, Operation Eagle Claw—which resulted in the deaths of eight special forces members—severely damaged Carter’s reputation. The hostages were released just minutes after Ronald Reagan was sworn in on January $20$, $1981$.

Modern Conflicts in Iraq and the Arab Spring

The $1980s$ saw the brutal Iran-Iraq War ($1980-1988$) led by Saddam Hussein. Following the war, a debt-ridden Saddam invaded Kuwait in August $1990$. President George H.W. Bush ($1924-2019$) responded with Operation Desert Storm ($1991$). The U.S. seen staggering success, liberating Kuwait but stopping short of capturing Saddam. The conflict also highlighted the role of the Kurds, the largest ethnic group without a nation-state. Kurdish culture is noted for being pro-women and having a fierce militia known as the Peshmerga ("those who face death"). In $2003$, George W. Bush ($2001-2009$) launched an invasion of Iraq based on the presence of "Weapons of Mass Destruction" ($WMDs$). No $WMDs$ were found, which damaged U.S. international credibility. This era of interventionism was followed in $2011$ by the Arab Spring, a series of protests and uprisings that began in Tunisia and spread to Egypt, leading to the downfall of longtime leader Hosni Mubarak as people hoped for a free political system, though the resulting leadership transitions remained complex.

Questions & Discussion

Q: Why was the IDF so successful in the opening hours of the Six-Day War?

A: The success of the MOKADE plan was due to a combination of meticulous planning and sheer luck. The Israeli Air Force focused on destroying runways first, ensuring that any planes not caught on the ground were unable to land or take off for second sorties. Furthermore, the Egyptian warning systems failed because a ranking corporal was tuned to the wrong frequency at the exact moment the Israeli planes were approaching.

Q: What was the specific anecdote regarding Moshe Dayan and Jimmy Carter?

A: During the tense Camp David negotiations, Moshe Dayan—who was having trouble seeing in the early morning fog—accidentally walked into a tree and cut his head. President Carter personally patched him up and offered him boiled peanuts while they talked, showing the casual and high-pressure nature of the $13$-day summit.

Q: How did the 1973 oil crisis start?

A: It was a coordinated political move. During the Yom Kippur War, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members met in Kuwait on October $17$, $1973$. They decided to reduce oil production and increase prices as a weapon against nations supporting Israel. This caused the price per barrel to jump from approximately $\$2.90$ to $\$5.11$.