Tesler Interview with Hayes - Race and Identity Politics in the Era of Obama and Trump

The Rise of White Identity Politics

Introduction

  • The discussion revolves around the increasing role of race and identity politics, particularly white identity, in recent elections and political messaging.
  • The focus is on how Donald Trump's campaign and presidency have amplified a divide that began with the election of Barack Obama.

Trump and Obama's Impact

  • Trump's actions have polarized white liberals, similar to how Obama's presidency affected white racial conservatives.
  • The parties are increasingly divided on racial issues.

Examples of Racialized Messaging

  • The example of Antonio Delgado, a black candidate, being labeled a "big-city rapper" in a political ad is used to illustrate the subtle, yet racist undertones in campaign messaging.
  • Another example involves an ad criticizing a candidate for speaking Korean, implying he is a "fake foreigner."

Historical Context

  • The weaponization of white identity politics is not new, with examples like Nixon's Southern Strategy and the Willie Horton ad in 1988.
  • These tactics are becoming increasingly explicit, particularly with Trump's appeals to white racial grievance.

The Obama Effect

  • The election of Barack Obama marked a significant shift in American politics.
  • It caused a change in the preferences and worldviews of white voters, making them more aware of which party aligns with their racial views.

Michael Tesler's Research

  • Michael Tesler's research focuses on how race began to influence white Americans' political views after Obama's election.
  • His work explores how racial identity has become a central aspect of American political formation.
  • Tesler's research identifies a rupture moment with Obama's election, after which race becomes a more significant factor in political attitudes.

Early Findings

  • Tesler's early work showed that even in the 2008 Democratic primaries, racial attitudes were strong predictors of voter preference among white voters.
  • He found the Democratic Party was split between racial liberals and racial conservatives in 2008.

Defining Racial Liberalism and Conservatism

  • Racial liberalism and conservatism are defined by views on racial inequality.
  • Questions used to measure these attitudes include agreement with statements like, "African-Americans could be just as well off as whites if they only tried harder," or, "Generations of discrimination have created conditions that make it difficult for African-Americans to work their way out of the lower class."
  • Stereotypes about groups are also used where people directly rate the group on how hard-working or how intelligent they think they are.

Polarization and the Obama Era

  • Obama's election led to a polarization of public opinion by race and racial attitudes.
  • White racial liberals were energized by Obama in a way that was not seen with candidates like Jesse Jackson in 1988.

The Racialization of Policy Positions

  • After Obama's election, racial attitudes began to influence views on various policies, including healthcare, the stimulus, and the economy.
  • The president became a racial cue, influencing opinions irrespective of policy details.
  • Beliefs about the economy, such as the unemployment rate, became tied to racial beliefs in unprecedented ways.

Partisanship vs. Racial Attitudes

  • Alternate realities form around racial attitudes, similar to how they form around partisanship.
  • Racial attitudes became a stronger predictor of views on the economy under Obama than in previous administrations.

Experiments and Regression Models

  • Regression models and experiments are used to distinguish the impact of racial attitudes from partisanship.
  • Associating policies with non-Obama figures reduced the predictive value of racial attitudes.
  • Racial attitudes are increasingly racialized, with people subconsciously connecting them to various issues.

The Trump Effect on Racial Attitudes

  • Trump has had a more significant impact on changing racial attitudes than Obama.
  • Trump's policies, such as the border wall, have pushed white racial liberals further to the left.
  • The country is becoming more liberal on issues like gender, immigration, and race, driven by the Democratic Party.

Shifting Partisan Alignments

  • The racialization of attitudes is driving partisan alignments.
  • Many white voters, including those without a college education, were not clear about which party was more sympathetic to black people before Obama's election.
  • Obama simplified the politics of race, making it clearer which party aligned with racial liberalism.

The Role of Education

  • Obama's election made some white non-college voters realize that the Democrats are the party more sympathetic to black Americans.
  • Polarization works in both directions, with racially liberal white individuals also becoming more Democratic.

Old-Fashioned Racism

  • Old-fashioned racism, including beliefs against interracial marriage and negative attitudes towards Muslims, became associated with partisanship during Obama's presidency.
  • Prior to Obama, there was no strong association between these beliefs and voting patterns.
  • Islamophobia also became more strongly linked to partisan views during the Obama era.

The Economy as a Proxy for Race

  • Questions about the economy became a proxy for race, with people answering based on their racial attitudes.
  • Views of the economy changed based on racial attitudes, not the other way around.

Consumer Confidence and Racial Attitudes After Trump

  • Consumer confidence shifted dramatically along partisan and racial lines after Trump's election.
  • Economic anxiety questions that focus on personal financial worries are less partisan and more indicative of actual economic hardship.

The 2016 Election and White Working-Class Voters

  • White working-class voters were particularly susceptible to Trump's messaging due to their existing racial attitudes.
  • Hillary Clinton's explicit focus on systemic racism may have alienated some voters.
  • Obama embodies race to the point where his presence alone activates certain concerns.

Trump's Campaign Strategy

  • Trump ran an explicitly racist campaign, which was effective in a fragmented Republican primary.
  • Racial resentment, anti-immigrant attitudes, anti-Muslim attitudes, and white identity all independently predicted Trump's support.
  • Trump was more effective at activating white people's fears about discrimination than Obama.

White Racial Liberals

  • White racial liberals are becoming increasingly energized and influential within the Democratic Party.
  • White liberals in the Democratic coalition often hold more liberal views on race than black people in the same coalition.
  • Trump is driving white liberals further to the left on racial issues.

Party Purification

  • The Democratic Party is becoming more purified on issues of race and identity, while the Republican Party is reaching its ceiling on conservatism.
  • Democrats have more room to move, but that is also why Trump was able to peel off Democrats.

Future Implications

  • The increasing polarization over identity issues is emotionally charged and potentially explosive.

Obama's Role in the Current Political Landscape

  • Obama puts all this stuff on the table by the mere fact of who he is.
  • Obama was polarizing because of who he was, not because of what he said or did.

The Salience of White Identity

  • The increasing salience of white identity in American politics is concerning.
  • The extent to which this trend can be mitigated depends on the choices of politicians.
  • The Republican Party's unpopular fiscal policies incentivize appeals to white identity politics.

The Pit Bull Politics Project

  • Michael Tesler and his wife are writing a book called "Pit Bull Politics: What a Dog Breed Can Teach Us About Prejudice and Politics."
  • The book explores the similarities between the discrimination faced by pit bulls and racial/ethnic minorities.
  • Pit bulls are portrayed in more racialized terms in media coverage.

Media Portrayal of Pit Bulls

  • There are a disproportionate number of violence stories about pit bulls compared to other breeds.
  • This reflects how African-Americans are portrayed in the media.
  • Attitudes about African-Americans are predictive of views about pit bulls.

Racialized Framing of Pit Bulls

  • People are more opposed to pit bulls when they are framed as inner city pets.
  • Percentage of white people correlates with support for pit bull bans.

Conclusion

  • The menacing image of the pit bull started to come to the fore in the 70s and 80s.