Population over time

Early Human History

For most human history, the global population grew at a relatively slow pace.

Agricultural Revolution

Around 10,000 BCE, the development of agriculture led to more stable food production and enabled population growth.

Industrial revolution

The 18th and 19th centuries marked the onset of the Industrial Revolution, which brought significant advancements in various areas such as technology and medicine. These developments led to a rapid increase in the global population.

20th century

During the 20th century, population growth accelerated even more due to improvements in sanitation and agriculture. Major medical breakthroughs such as vaccines played a significant role in reducing mortality.

Contemporary times

Population trends can vary significantly across regions, with some areas experiencing rapid growth and others suffering from declining populations.

Malthus’ theory

The Malthusian theory was proposed in the late 18th century by Thomas Malthus. He argued that population growth would eventually outrun the planet’s resources leading to widespread famine, disease and social agitation. He based his theory in two main factors:

• Population growth: Malthus observed that population grows exponentially. He believed that this growth would continue at a rapid pace.

• Limited resources: According to Malthus, the Earth’s resources (such as food and land) could only increase at a linear rate. He argued that the availability of resources wouldn’t be able to keep up with the high growth of the population.

Boserup theory

The Boserupian theory was presented by Ester Boserup in the 1960s as a response to Malthusian ideas. Contrary to Malthus, Boserup argued that population growth could stimulate agricultural innovation and production.

• Population pressure: Boserup recognised that population growth could create increased demand for food and resources, leading to what she called “population pressure”. As population density increased, people would be motivated to find ways to sustain themselves.

• Technological innovation: In response to population pressure, Boserup believed that technological progress would drive agricultural innovation. As people faced the need to produce more food, they would develop new techniques, technologies and farming methods to increase productivity and overcome resource constraints.

• Feedback loop: Boserup proposed a positive feedback loop between population growth, agricultural innovation and increased productivity. As population increased, it would drive innovation and intensification in agriculture, resulting in higher yields. These higher yields would then support further population growth.

Comparison

Thomas Malthus and Ester Boserup presented contrasting views on the relationship between population growth and resource availability. In the Malthusian theory, Malthus argued that population growth would lead to famine and scarcity of resources. He believed that population would always outpace the availability of resources.

On the other hand, Boserup’s theory challenged this pessimistic perspective. She stated that population growth could actually stimulate agricultural innovation and technological advancements.

Demographic transition model

The demographic transition model is a way to understand how population changes over time. There are four stages in the model:

Stage 1: Pre-Industrial Stage

• There are high birth rates and high death rates, but they fluctuate.

• This happens because of limited acces to healthcare, high infant mortality rates and no access to birth control methods.

Stage 2: Early Industrial Stage

• Death rates start decreasing because of better healthcare and medicine.

• Birth rates remain high, so the population grows rapidly.

Stage 3: Late Industrial Stage

• Birth rates start to decline because of urbanisation.

• The population still grows, but not as fast as before.

Stage 4: Post-Industrial Stage

• Both birth rates and death rates are low and fluctuating, resulting in a stable but slowly growing population.

• Developed countries, characterised by a highly industrialised and urbanised society, advanced healthcare systems and service-based economies often fall into this stage.

Stage 5: Post-Modern Stage

• The fift stage represents a hypothetical future escenario.

• In this stage, low and steady birth rates and a slight increase in death rates lead to a declining population.

• The population will start to fall as it’s no longer replacing itself.

• The population is ageing and will gradually be dominated by older people, eventually leading to an increased death rate.

• Factors such as increased access to education, employment opportunities, changing family structures and a higher cost of raising children will contribute to lowering birth rates.

Spain’s demography

Stage 1: 1900-1925

• During this period, Spain faced many historical events that affected its population dynamics.

• One of the most impactful events was the Spanish flu pandemic, which ocurred between 1918 and 1920. The flu caused a high number of deaths and affected the remaining population.

• The mortality rates surged, particularly among young adults, resulting in a decline in population growth.

• Additionally, Spain experienced political instability during this period. The country faced the Rif War in Morocco (1920-1926), a conflict between Spain and the Berber tribes in the Rif region. The war led to a significant loss of population and further disrupted the population.

Stage 2: 1925-1950

• This stage was characterised by the Civil War (1936-1939). The Spanish Civil War was a major conflict between the Nationalists forces (led by Franco) and the Republican government. This resulted in substantial loss of population, their displacement and economic disruption.

• The population decline during this period was a consequence of the war’s devastating effects.

Stage 3: 1950-1975

• This period was marked by significant historical events and transformative social changes.

• After World War II, Spain experienced a phase of rapid population growth known as the Spanish Baby Boom.

• Economic recovery and industrial development led to increased birth rates and a surge in population growth.

• During this stage, Spain also saw the end of an autarky (a policy of economic self-sufficiency) and the initation of economic liberalisation policies under Franco’s regime. The resulting economic improvements and increased job opportunities influenced population trends.

Stage 4: 1975-2000

• This stage witnessed significant historical events and a period of transition in Spain. The most notable event was the death of Franco in 1975, which marked the end of his dictatorship. Spain underwent a political transition from dictatorship to democracy. This period of political change influenced population dynamics.

• With the transition to democracy, Spain experienced a period of stabilisation in population growth. Birth rates declined due to changing social attitudes, increased access to contraception and women’s increasing participation in the workforce. The country also faced economic challenges, including high unemployment rates and economic downturns, which impacted family planning decisions.

Stage 5: 2000-2019

• This stage was characterised by a low birth rate and an aging population.

• Economic factors, including high unemployment rates and economic uncertainties affected family planning decisions and contributed to the decline in birth rates.

• Spain faced challenges associated with an aging population, such as increased healthcare and pension costs.

• Death rates in Spain increased in 2020-2021 primarily due to to the COVID-19 pandemic. In early stages of the pandemic, Spain's healthcare system was overwhelmed, and there was a shortage of medical supplies and personnel. This to led to a high number of fatalities among those infected with the virus, but mostly affected older people and underlying health conditions.

Opium trade

• Opium trade was a significant part of international trade in the 19th century.

• It was used for both medicinal and recreational purposes and offered merchants rich profits.

• However, opium is extremely addictive and the reacreational use of opium was highly damaging to people’s health.

Background information

• From the 1640s the new ruling dynasty in China was the Manchu or Qing dynasty.

• Manchu rule brought peace and stability to China. China became relatively wealthy and new intensive farming techniques were developed.

Manchu and Europe

• The Manchu didn’t want to develop contacts with the West.

• They resisted contact with European culture and attempted to prevent European merchants, who were increasingly interested in China (especially Britain), from entering the country.

• The Chinese viewed Europeans as barbarians who were rough and uncivilised.

• Chinese authorities used a ‘closed door’ policy (known as the Canton system) in an attempt to expel Europeans.

• Europeans were only allowed to enter a small area in designated ports, and couldn’t go outside these areas.

• Furthermore, ordinary Chinese people couldn’t meet with European traders, and they would face death if they disobeyed.

• European merchants weren’t pleased with all these restrictions.

• A key issue for these merchants was that trade was very expensive for them since the Chinese insisted on being paid with silver. The British were particularly hostile to this arrangement.

China and Britain

• The Chinese saw themselves as the main power in the world, but so did the British.

• The British were frustrated by China’s ‘closed door’ policy trading system.

• They wanted an ‘oper door’ policy, where their merchants and businesses could trade freely.

British missions to China

• In 1793, Lord Macartney, went to China with instructions from King George III to set up diplomatic relations and trade agreements. However, Lord Macartney failed to secure trade agreements, since the Chinese weren’t at all open to the idea of trading with the British.

• In 1816, a second mission was also unsuccesful. The leader of the mission was Lord Amherst, and he refused to perform a traditional Chinese custom. The Chinese took this as a sign of disrespect and only confirmed their idea that Europeans were barbarians.

Start of the Opium trade

• To end the massive flow of silver to China, the British thought of selling opium to China. The main company trading with China was the British East India Company.

• Because of the horrific impacts of opium addiction, Europe had banned the drug. Therefore, opium was cultivated in India.

• For the Chinese government, opium was a great problem, both social and economical. In 1729 and 1796, the Chinese passed two laws that banned the importation of the drug. To get around this ban and continue making profits, the East India Company began selling opium to Chinese merchants that were able to smuggle it for the rest of the population.

Start of the first war

• In 1839, Emperor Dao Guang sent Commisioner Lin Zexu to Guangzhou to finally put an end to opium trade. Lin ordered the confiscation of all the British merchants’ opium supplies. All 20283 chests full of the drug were seized and destroyed. Lin also appealed to the British monarch, Queen Victoria, to assist the Chinese government.

• Tensions between China and Britain intensified. When a Chinese citizen was killed by drunken British sailors, more chaos ensued. The sailor paid the victim’s family, but Chinese authorities wanted to hand it over to a trial. The British argued that it wouldn’t be fair, so they made their citizen be judged by his own government.

• In response, Lin ordered the ports to be blockaded and stopped food supplies to foreigners. The British response was to send warships to Guangzhou, which destroyed a large number of Chinese war junks.

• The British were then expelled from Guangzhou, which led to 20 warships with 4000 troops on board being sent to China. They bombarded the city and then sailed up and down the coast, which causeed many deaths and widespread destruction.

End of the first war

• The first Opium War lasted from 1839 until 1842

• The British forces were better trained and better armed - the Chinese were no match for them.

• The war ended with the signing of the Treaty of Nanjing, which didn’t even mention opium trade.

• The Manchu rulers weren’t consulted on the terms of the treaty, and didn’t have any choice but to sign it. British ships threatened to bombard Chinese coastal towns until the treaty was signed.

• After the war, opium continued to pour into China in increasing quantities. Chinese authorities could only impose harsher punishements on users hoping to cut down on the drug use.

Treaty of Nanjing

• Four additional ports were to be opened up to trade with the West.

• The British were no longer subjected to Chinese Law, but to the ones of their own country.

• The British had special rights in the areas where they lived.

• The Chinese had to pay 21 million silver dollars, and also had to pay for all the opium they had destroyed.

• In all future trades, China had to treat Britain as equals.

• Britain was to be given the port city of Honk Kong.

Second war

• Another war broke out between China and Britain in 1856.

• This war was triggered by an incident involving a ship that was flying a British flag although it was owned by a Chinese. The Chinese police arrested the crew but the British flag was torn down. The British were furious and ordered the release of the crew and an apology. The Chinese returned the crew but didn’t apologise.

• What followed were Chinese gangs attacking and setting fire to British homes and warehouses and British warships bombarded Guangzhou.

• The war ended in 1860 with the Treaty of Tientsin.

Treaty of Tientsin

• Opium importation to China was made legal with a small import duty

• Christian missionaries were given freedom to convert people.

• Europeans were allowed to travel anywhere in China without restrictions.

• Ambassadors of European countries were allowed to set up residence in Beijing - the Imperial capital.

After the Treaty of Tientsin

• Tensions remained high between the British and Chinese, as the Chinese attempted to resist implementing the unequal treaties.

• In 1860, British and French troops were sent to Beijing to enforce the terms of the treaties.

• China had been defeated, and by the end of the nineteenth century, Britain, France and Germany has seized huge territories in China. Russia had also taken territory in the north, and had gained influence in Manchuria (a Chinese region) and Mongolia.

Taiping rebellion

• While China was facing threats from Western countries, it was also dealing with internal rebellions. The largest of these was the Taiping rebellion, which lasted from 1850 to 1864.

• At one time, the Taipings controlled one-third of China and even had their own capital in Nanjing. The rebellion finally ended by Imperial forces with the help of European troops.

• The rebellion caused damages to agriculture and trade, which meant that fewer people could pay taxes so government income decreased.

• The fact that Chinese troops had required assistance from foreigners showed how dependent the Qing rulers had become.

Positives and Negative changes of China and Britain

China

Britain

Slave trade

• The transatlantic slave trade was a segment of global trade that transported between 10 million and 12 million enslaved Africans across the Atlantic Ocean to the Americas from the 16th to the 19th century.

• By the 1840’s, Portuguese ships were already transporting Africans to use as slaves on the sugar plantations in the Cape Verde and Madeira islands. Spanish conquistadors took African slaves to the Caribbean after 1502, but Portuguese merchants continued to dominate the the transatlantic slave trade for another century and a half.

• No more than a few hundred thousand Africans were enslaved before 1600. In the 17th century, however, demand for slave labour rose sharply with the growth of sugar plantations in the Caribbean and tobacco plantations in the Chesapeake region in North America.

• The slave trade had devastating effects in Africa. Economic incentives for warlords and tribes to engage in the slave trade prompted an atmposhere of lawlesness and violence.

• Depopulation and fear of captivity made economic and agricultural development almost impossible throughout great part of western Africa.

• During the early years of the transatlantic slave trade, the Portuguese generally purchased Africans who had been taken as slaves during tribal wars. As the demand for slaves grew, the Portuguese began to enter the interior of Africa to take captives by force.

• The Atlantic passage was notorious for its brutality and for the overcrowded and unsanitary conditions on slave ships. Slaves were usually chained together and they weren’t able to sit upright. The heat was intolerable and oxygen levels were so low that candles wouldn’t burn.

The slave trade had a profoundly negative impact of the African continent:

• Loss of population: The transatlantic slave trade transported millions of Africans to to the Americas. This resulted in a significant loss of population, causing decreased labour force and a demographic imbalance.

• Economic exploitation: African societies were heavily exploted for economic gain during the slave trade. European traders extracted valuable resources such as gold, ivory and slaves. This extraction of resources deprived African societies of their wealth and hindered economic development.

• Demographic imbalance: The slave trade heavily favoured the capture and sale of young adult males due to their perceived qualities. This gender imbalance disrupted family structures and the balance between men and women, since 2/3 of slaves were men. The removal of young adults hindered natural population increase and contributed to a crooked age distribution.

• Violence: Before the slave trade, Africans used bows, arrows and spears in their battles. When western traders started providing Africans with firearms and ammunition in exchange for enslaved individuals, the availability of guns intensified existing conflicts. This lead to more violent and deadly confrontations, which also reduced chances on negotiating.

Positive impacts of the slave trade in Western countries:

• Economic prosperity: The profits that western nations, such as Britain and America, gained from the slave trade boosted the economies of these countries, not to mention the resources they gained directly from Africa.

• Industrial revolution: The wealth accumulated throughout the slave trade played a big role in financing the Industrial Revolution in Britain. Profits generated from the slave-based plantation economies helped fund advancements that lead to the growth of the British Empire.

• Job creation: The slave trade created employment opportunities and stimulated economic activity in industries such as shipbuilding, shipping and manufacturing.

• Trade: The slave trade presented Britain with an opportunity for a significant market expansion of materials between other countries. This trade enabled British merchants to establish lucrative connections with colonies and overseas markets. Enslaved Africans produced valuable products such as cotton, sugar and tobacco which were in high demand globally. Consequently, this all played a crucial role in fuelling Britain’s economic prosperity during that era.