(Risk 2) Risk Communication

Focus on the meaningful communication of risk, moving beyond problems discussed previously.
Importance of overcoming challenges in risk communication.

Risk: An umbrella term addressing inherently uncertain events.
Hazards: Describes the potential negative occurrences (e.g., natural disasters like tsunamis, earthquakes, and pandemics; also includes minor hazards like sunburn).
Likelihood: The probability of a hazard occurring, dependent on context (location, time).
Impact: Consequences of a hazard if it occurs, inclusive of:
- Exposure: The number of individuals or entities affected (e.g., population, infrastructure).
- Vulnerability: The extent to which those affected experience negative outcomes (financial, health issues).
Recoverability/Resilience: The ability of a community or individual to recover quickly from the impact of a hazard, and the duration of the impact felt.

Simplified Risk Matrix: consists of two axes:
- Axis 1: Likelihood (ranging from very low to very high probability of occurrence).
- Axis 2: Impact (from trivial impact to catastrophic consequences).
This matrix categorizes risks into:
- Low-risk quadrant (bottom left): Low chance of occurrence; trivial impact.
- High-risk quadrant (top right): High chance of occurrence; large impact.
- High likelihood, low impact quadrant: High probability, but not significantly harmful.
- Low likelihood, high impact quadrant: Rare occurrences with severe consequences.

Contamination of Hamilton City Water Supply:
- Likelihood: Low.
- Impact: High (health implications).
- Workshop activity: Participants categorizing various hazards on the matrix.

Example of Earthquakes:
- Frequent small earthquakes (high likelihood, low impact).
- Rare but devastating earthquakes (low likelihood, high impact).
- Planners must decide focus area (high impact, low likelihood occurrences vs. common, lower impact events).

Scenario: Tsunami from volcanic eruption at La Palma, Canary Islands.
- Risk: Extremely low likelihood of occurrence, but could result in catastrophic impacts.
- Discussion on whether resources should be allocated for extreme protective measures (e.g., 10-meter seawalls).
COVID-19 Risks:
- High likelihood of new variants arising.
- Varied impact potential on public health.

Goal: Reduce overall risk by lowering either the likelihood of hazards or the impact of those hazards.
Tsunamis: Improving mitigation through planning and evacuation measures (focus on impact reduction).
Measles Epidemic: Reducing both likelihood and impact through effective vaccination programs.

Repeated Risks: Occur frequently over time (e.g., crossing a road increases chances of accidents; cumulative risk increases with frequency).
- Example: Risk associated with multiple X-rays increases with exposure.
Population Risks: Non-negligible overall risk despite individual low probabilities (e.g., car crashes versus individual likelihood of crashing).

Costs associated with risk reduction measures (financial implications).
Discussing whether funds could be allocated more effectively elsewhere.
Need for evaluation of the worth of risk mitigation versus alternate investments.

Clarity in terminology; consistent and accurate usage of terms.
Recognize public difficulty in interpreting probabilities.
Distinguish between statistical significance versus practical significance.
Leverage real-world impacts when discussing risks, especially in context like climate change (e.g., translating temperature increases into substantial impacts on ecosystems and communities).
Tailor communication to the audience to ensure understanding (considering their concerns and knowledge base).

Contrast between detailed information posters and actionable warnings in urgent situations (e.g., danger announcement instead of informative posters).
Consider timing and placement of critical messages to enhance public safety rather than merely inform.