Voting and Elections in the United States

Introduction to Voting and Elections in the United States

• This lecture serves as a comprehensive guide to the mechanisms of elections in the United States, with specific focuses on the state of Texas and international comparisons.
• Prerequisite material: It is strongly recommended that viewers have watched prior videos on gerrymandering and the Electoral College, as those concepts provide necessary context for how elections function in the $U.S.$
• The goal is to understand how we do things the way we do them by establishing a baseline comparing the $U.S.$ system to other democracies globally.

Plurality vs. Majority Voting Systems

• Majority Voting System:

  • Definition: Winning an election by receiving more than $50\,\%$ of the total votes cast.
  • The formula for a majority is defined as $50\,\% + 1$ vote.
  • Example: In an election with $64$ available votes (visualized as dots), a candidate would need at least $33$ votes to achieve a majority. If a candidate receives $40$ out of $64$ votes, they have won by a clear majority.
  • Majority voting is the standard for winning elections in many parts of the world.

• Plurality Voting System:

  • Definition: A system where the winner is the person who receives more votes than any other individual candidate, regardless of whether they reached the $50\,\%$ threshold.
  • There is a linguistic and mathematical distinction between "most" (majority) and "more than anyone else" (plurality).
  • Example: In a scenario with $64$ dots representing votes and five candidates:
    • Candidate A: $23$ votes
    • Candidate B: $17$ votes
    • Candidate C: $16$ votes
    • Candidate D: (Implicitly low, based on visualization)
    • Candidate E: $1$ vote
  • In this scenario, Candidate A wins the election under plurality rules despite the fact that the vast majority of voters (a combined total of $41$) voted directly against them.
  • This winner-take-all model is the primary mechanism used in Texas and throughout the United States.

Types of Elections in Texas and the United States

• Primary Elections:

  • Purpose: Used by the main political parties—the Republicans and the Democrats—to determine who their official nominee will be for the general election.
  • In the $2024$ presidential election, for example, the Republican nominee was Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee was Kamala Harris.
  • Rules: Each party has the authority to decide the specific rules and processes for selecting their nominee.
  • Sports Analogy: Primary elections are like the postseason in professional football. To reach the Super Bowl, teams in the AFC or NFC must first win games in the playoffs (such as the divisional round and the conference championship), even if they are the number one seed. Primaries allow parties to "fight it out" internally before the big game (the general election).

• General Elections:

  • Purpose: These are the "real" elections where the final winner of the office is determined. This is the political equivalent of the Super Bowl.

• Special Elections:

  • Purpose: Typically held to fill unexpected vacancies in office or if a new legislative seat is created in a state.
  • While rare at the federal level, they are common at the state level.
  • Special elections can sometimes serve as or lead to runoff elections.

Comparative Elections: Proportional Representation and Diverge's Law

• Diverge's Law:

  • This political science principle states that a "first-past-the-post" or winner-take-all plurality voting system naturally encourages and sustains a two-party system.
  • Under winner-take-all, if a candidate gets $50\,\% + 1$ vote, the interests of the other $49.9\,\%$ are not represented by that specific seat.

• Proportional Representation:

  • Found in many other countries, this system awards representation based on the percentage of the vote a party receives.
  • Case Study: Italy:
    • The Italian parliament is a bicameral system consisting of a lower house ($630$ seats) and a Senate ($318$ seats).
    • Unlike the $U.S.$, it has multiple parties (e.g., eight different parties represented in the visualizations).
    • One example is the Five Star Movement, a conservative party. If a party earns $10\,\%$ of the national vote, they are allocated $10\,\%$ of the seats (e.g., $63$ out of $630$).
  • Dynamics of Proportionality:
    • Pros: One party is rarely able to act unilaterally; they must form coalitions to govern, which can lead to broader representation.
    • Cons: Governments can be unstable because if coalition partners defect or disagree, the government may fail to accomplish its goals. This is seen in recent elections in Germany regarding the selection of a Prime Minister.
  • The Contrast: In the $U.S.$ plurality system, if Donald Trump receives $49.9\,\%$ of the vote, those voters "won" the representation for that office. However, if Kamala Harris received $48.3\,\%$ in $2024$, those voters effectively get zero representation from that specific result because it is not proportional.

Voter Turnout and Political Participation

• Definition: Voter turnout is the percentage of eligible voters who actually participate in an election.
• Geographic Trends in the $U.S.$:
  • High Turnout States: Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Maine typically exhibit the highest participation rates (indicated by darker colors on turnout maps).
  • Low Turnout States: States like Texas are often in the bottom $5$ for turnout (indicated by yellow on the maps).
• Factors Influencing Texas Turnout:
  • Size and Geography: Texas is massive with highly diverse and large counties.
  • Accessibility: In large, sparsely populated areas like Pecos County, a voter might have to drive a significant distance to reached a polling location.
  • Work and Time Constraints: Limited polling hours combined with work schedules can make voting seem "not worth it" for some citizens.
• Historical Trends:
  • The $2020$ election saw a record turnout of over $66\,\%$ of eligible Americans, likely influenced by the unique circumstances of the pandemic.
  • Turnout decreased in $2024$, which was expected as the pandemic-era conditions faded.

The Role of Media in Elections

• Agenda Setting: The process by which media outlets decide which stories are important, thereby influencing what the public cares about.
• Economic Incentives: Media outlets are businesses primarily governed by revenue. They want to keep viewers watching to show them ads (e.g., Safari ads on CNN or mulch ads on Fox News).
• Personalized Tracking: Websites track user behavior. For example, if a user searches for "mulch" on Google Chrome or Gmail, ads for mulch will appear on news sites like Fox News.
• Partisan Leanings and Selective Reporting:
  • Conservative networks (Fox News, Newsmax) and liberal networks (CNN, MSNBC) often tell different versions of the same story.
  • Example: The confirmation of Kash Patel as FBI Director was a top story on both CNN and Fox News, but the framing differed.
  • Example: News about Trump turning against Zelensky (Ukraine) within $48$ hours might be a major negative headline on CNN, while Fox News might focus on a senator endorsing Trump three months after the election as a positive story.

Statistical Analysis of Recent Elections

• Presidential Margin Scenarios:

  • $2000$ (Bush vs. Gore): George W. Bush won with $47.9\,\%$ of the vote, meaning $52.1\,\%$ of the electorate voted against him.
  • $2016$ (Trump vs. Clinton): Donald Trump won with $46.1\,\%$ of the vote, meaning $53.9\,\%$ voted against him; he won via the Electoral College despite the popular vote plurality.
  • $2024$ (Trump vs. Harris): Donald Trump received $49.9\,\%$ against Harris's $48.3\,\%$. While more decisive than $2016$, still $50.1\,\%$ voted for someone else.

• State Level Results (Texas $2020$ vs. $2024$):

  • In $2020$, Trump won Texas with $52.1\,\%$ ($5,890,000$ votes) over Biden's $46.5\,\%$ ($5,259,000$ votes).
  • Blue areas in Texas are concentrated in high-population urban centers: Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and El Paso.
  • Comparing maps, some areas like Lubbock appeared slightly less red in $2024$ than in $2020$.

• Governor's Race (Texas $2022$):

  • Incumbent Greg Abbott (Republican) defeated Beto O'Rourke (Democrat).
  • Turnout Difference: $11,000,000$ votes were cast in Texas for the $2020$ presidential race, but only $8,000,000$ were cast for the $2022$ gubernatorial race—a drop of $3,000,000$ voters (representing roughly $10\,\%$ of the population).
  • This highlight's the media's role in hyping presidential cycles over midterms.

• Down-Ballot Drop-off and Split-Ticket Voting:

  • Down-Ballot Drop-off: There is a phenomenon where voters cast a vote for President but leave the rest of the ballot blank.
  • Example: In Ector County ($2024$), $42,599$ people voted for President, but only $42,252$ voted for Senator (a drop of about $300$). This number dwindles further for local races like Mayor ($28,000$ votes cast), though this is partly due to city-limit restrictions.
  • Split-Ticket Voting: When a voter chooses candidates from different parties on the same ballot. In North Carolina ($2024$), many people voted for Trump for President but selected Democrats for Lieutenant Governor or Attorney General.

Runoff Elections and Majority Thresholds

• The Georgia Model:
  • Georgia requires a candidate to reach a $50\,\%$ threshold to win an election.
  • In $2022$, incumbent Senator Rafael Warnock faced Herschel Walker and a third-party candidate, Chase Oliver. Because no one hit $50\,\%$ in the general, it went to a runoff between the top two (Warnock and Walker).
  • Rafael Warnock eventually won with $51\,\%$ ($1,800,000$ votes).
  • Context: Warnock effectively had to run four times (special election in $2020$, runoff in $2020$, general in $2022$, runoff in $2022$) to secure one full term.

Primary Systems: Open vs. Closed

• In Open Primaries (like in Texas), any voter can choose to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary, regardless of their own party affiliation. However, a voter is restricted to voting in only one primary per election cycle.
• This system is intended to encourage higher levels of participation in the electoral process from the outset.

Questions & Discussion

• Consider the following for evaluation:
  • Is a plurality system or a proportional system more "fair" to the average voter?
  • Which system is more inherently democratic?
  • Why does the United States continue to use the plurality model despite the fact that a winner can be elected while the majority of the population voted for someone else?