Globalization and the Changing Liberal International Order Study Notes
The Rise of the Liberal International Order
Emergence (1945): The liberal international order was established at the end of World War II, driven by the United Nations system, Bretton Woods Institutions, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which evolved into the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Dominance: Following the end of the Cold War in 1990 and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the US-led liberal order achieved near-global hegemony based on norms of equality, freedom, and institutionalized social order.
Expansion: Economic globalization was furthered by the creation of common markets, such as the European Union (EU) adopting a common currency in 2000, and the rise of the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) in 2010.
Globalization and Its Promises
Definitions: Globalization is characterized as the intensification of global interconnectedness (McCraw, 2005) or the integration of economies through trade and financial flows (IMF, 2000).
Schools of Thought:
Hyper-globalists: Argue that borders are disappearing (Levitt, 1983; Ohmae, 1995).
Skeptics: Propose that globalization fails to deliver equitable development (Callinicos, 2009).
Transformationalists: See globalization as a driver of global social change and "everyday life" transformation (Giddens, 1999).
Positive Impacts: Proponents credit liberalism and globalization with reducing global poverty, fostering "third wave" democracy (Huntington, 1991), and creating the "global village" through technological connectivity and $21^{st}$ century information flow (McLuhan, 2003; Castells, 2000).
Signs of the Changing International Order
Political Shifts: The late 2000s marked a relapse in the liberal order, manifesting as a decline in multilateralism and a rise in new nationalism. Key events include the Brexit referendum ($2016$), Catalonia independence referendum ($2017$), and the New Caledonia referendum ($2018$).
US Policy Transitions: Under the Trump administration, the US shifted from openness to isolationism, characterized by the "America First" mantra and the proposed US/Mexico border wall.
Withdrawals from Global Agreements:
Withdrawal from the $2015$ Paris Agreement on climate change announced June 1, 2017.
Withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
Renegotiation of NAFTA into a new trade deal with Mexico.
Economic Conflict: The US-led trade war with China involved imposing a tax on worth of Chinese imports in July $2018$. The US trade deficit was cited at in $2017$.
Transitions Toward Post-Liberalism and Global Governance
Post-Liberal Theory: Scholars like Mann (2013) and Ikenberry (2018) argue the liberal order is faltering, potentially moving toward "regulated chaos" or "managed non-order" (McFalls and Pandolfi, 2012).
New Global Anarchy: Cerny and Prichard (2017) describe a state of "new global anarchy" where globalization is neutralized by contradictions like protectionism, nativism, and racism.
Polycentric Governance: There is an emerging debate regarding polycentric or quasi-global governance, where institutional and quasi-institutional structures manage global affairs without a single overarching sovereign authority (Ostrom, 2014).
China's Role: With the US retreat from global leadership, questions arise regarding whether China can assume a dominant role in preserving the global economic status quo.
Conclusions
Uncertainty: The current order is riddled with uncertainties regarding the ability to maintain an inclusive or transformative global system.
Future Leadership: While the liberal international order lacks a clear major alternative, its core elements (multilateralism and free trade) are increasingly viewed as illusions by contemporary nationalist movements.
Ideology: The retreat of America as a global leader has created a vacuum, leading to a search for new global governance that serves the collective interest beyond neoliberalism.