AA

Week 4

  • Nuclear weapons and weapons of peace/ deterrence 

  • Iran had nuclear deterrent no way US or Israel would attack Iran 

  • Middle east had a nuclear deterrent it would be more peaceful

  • Problem → possibility there will be nuclear use

    • Conventional war 

  • If Iran acquire nuclear weapons → cause 3 or more countries in region to also get nuclear weapons Saudi Arabia, Emirates, Turkey, Egypt

    • Will be afraid of Iran nuclear blackmail

  • Would set off a chain of nuclear weapons states

  • Iranians does not have the possibility of blackmail→ no country with nuclear weapons can blackmail another country with nuclear weapons 

    • There is no evidence 

  • US extended nuclear umbrella over Turkey and Saudi Arabia → making it very clear they can’t blackmail anybody

  • More countries have weapons→ more likely someone will use them 

  • Argues existing instability created by Israel → has created an imbalance and would leave a continued imbalance in region

    • Saudan Hussam invasion 1990

    • Arab Spring

    • Syrian Civil War

  • US and Israel would not be threatening Iran if they had nuclear weapons


IS NUCLEAR ZERO THE BEST OPTION 

  • Most dangerous nuclear threats to US→ terrorist + new nuclear powers + spread of nuclear weapons to new states and indirectly to terrorist orgs

  • If Iran and Syria get nuclear weapons→ danger that terrorists will get their hands on one will clearly increase

  • To achieve global zero→ necessary that all states have increased confidence that final disarmament agreement will be enforced + new nuclear proliferator will not be tolerated

  • There will still be latent form of nuclear deterrence even if nuclear disarmed world

  • Nuclear weapons free world will not be free of conflicts of national interest

  • Getting rid of nuclear weapons that have caused 65 years of peace would have an effect 

  • Building a conventional deterrence against US is impossible 

  • Nuclear weapons are the only weapons capable of dissuading the US from working its will on other nations

  • If there was an agreement to go zero leaders would cheat→ nuclear weapons are small and light → easy to hide and move in small vans and boats

  • Ban on nuclear weapons would be impossible to enforce bc countries would be tempted to cheat → would lead to a scramble

  • Those who like peace should love nuclear weapons

  • They work against their own use 

  • Countries that have nuclear weapons no matter who (irrational or mean) do not launch attacks on others let alone nuclear ones

  • Countries worry about surviving/ being annihilated 

  • Nuclear weapons are a mixed blessing

  • Most countries feel sufficiently secure without adding nuclear weapons to their conventional arsenals


CHAPTER 4 NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION AND NUCLEAR AGES 

  • Reason states have chosen to develop bomb mixed from traditional security + influence of domestic politics and norms, and the importance of national identity to the role played by tech

  • More states building nuclear weapons→ horizontal proliferation

  • Challenges posed by vertical proliferation→ increases in quantity and quality of nuclear weapons by states that already have them


CHOOSING TO BUILD OR NOR TO BUILD THE BOMB 

  • Political leaders and governments choose to build and keep nuclear weapons bc they believe that this is the only way or the best way to ensure national security against external threats in a dangerous international system 

  • National security considerations dictate that nuclear weapons are a liability more than an asset bc they turn country into a target

Model

Explanation

Theoretical home 

Examples

Security 

States build and retain nuclear weapons for national security reasons or to gain strategic advantage 

Realism/ Neorealism 

North Korea built nuclear weapons to protect against an attack from US

Domestic/ bureaucratic politics  

States build, retain and make nuclear weapons decisions for domestic parochial and bureaucratic interest

Liberalism 

Key reason why the US, Russia, UK, and France have found nuclear reductions difficult and stand as major barrier of disarmament

Norms 

States build and retain nuclear weapons bc of the prestige they provide 

Constructivism 

The decision taken by the UK to develop and maintain nuclear weapons is seen by some as linked with identity and great power status 

Technological determinism 

Nuclear weapons are the product of technological innovation and development 

Structuralism 

Possibility of building nuclear weapons and evermore powerful or accurate weapons drives policy 


The Cold War nuclear arms evolved a technological logic of its own. 

  • Some states have decided not to acquire or build nuclear weapons bc of national security, economic reasons, or political/moral reasons even bc of the growing normative and legal taboo against nuclear weapons 

  • Theory of Strategic Culture → each state may experience, understand and respond to the external threat environment in different ways as a result of their specific strategic culture


VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL PROLIFERATION 

  • Approximately 128,000 nuclear weapons have been built since 1945 until early 1998 only the US, Russia, UK, France, and China

  • 98% of these weapons built by US or Soviet Union b/w 1945-1991

  • Total global stockpiles of nuclear weapons peeked in 1986 at about 69,368 warheads with about 50% in Russia 

  • Nuclear inventories expanded (vertical proliferation) during 1950s-60s→ warheads have decreased

  • Increase in the number of states with nuclear (horizontal proliferation) made relatively little difference to the overall number of nuclear weapons in the world 

  •  

  • Threats posed by horizontal proliferation requires enhanced counter proliferation and non-proliferation efforts while preventing vertical proliferation requires a greater push for nuclear arms control, reductions, and possibly disarmament 

  • Balance b/w nuclear non-proliferation of nuclear disarmament key problem in NPT


THE CONCEPT OF NUCLEAR AGES 

  • 1st Nuclear Age→ dominated by vertical proliferation concerns driven by Cold War b/w 1945 and 1991 

  • 2nd Nuclear Age → after the end of Cold War; risks of horizontal nuclear weapons proliferation to more actors and new nuclear challenges in South Asia, Northeast Asia and the Middle East came to dominate 

  • Control for 1st Nuclear Age → MAD and secure second strike capabilities + nuclear arms control

  • 2nd Nuclear Age → characterised by spread of bomb and bomb related tech to new actors in a more fluid and nuanced international environment

    • Greatest risk regional instability in Middle East or South or Northeast Asia → exacerbated by spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction tech

    • Spread of bombs + new means to build and deliver has changed central dynamics of global nuclear order


NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION DEBATE: OPTIMISTS AND PESSIMISTS 

  • Proliferation optimists hold that horizontal nuclear proliferation should not necessarily be views as automatically destabilizing

  • Proliferation pessimists → horizontal nuclear proliferation can only ever lead to an increase in nuclear dangers and the possibility of nuclear use

    • Factors that make it potentially dangerous → growth of threat posed by terrorism and illicit nuclear networks, possibility of nuclear accidents, difficulties of civilian control and safe and secure command and control of nuclear weapons, spectre of preventive war against aspirant nuclear states, building survivable second strike forces

    • Focus on the problems of organisational culture and the fact that new nuclear actors are perhaps more likely to experience nuclear accidents

  • Nuclear latency → state has the theoretical capability to produce nuclear weapons but has chosen not to


AMERICA NEEDS A DEAD HAND MORE THAN EVER  

  • US has not expanded arsenal by a single weapon 

  • Today US is behind China and Russia as they are both modernizing and expanding their nuclear arsenals → gap increases coercive power Russia and China have to coerce the US backing down from aggression

  • US needs a dead hand system → detect inbound attack quickly than current system, give president ability to respond rapidly, and ensure field forces receive president’s orders

  • Decline in US arsenal in comparison to Russia, China, and North Korea → system is a necessity bc it complicate adversary calculation when contemplating a nuclear strike on the US

  • Rational Behavior Model → AI is used in components of the system related to understanding sensor input 

    • Top level decision is performed by pre-planning in order to develop a set of scenarios 

    • Soviet created Perimeter to deter the US from targeting the Soviet

  • AI system would speed up the detect, decide, and direct process but it should also aid the president in improving decision making 

  • AI enabled nuclear command, control, and communications system with the ability to speed up decision making or respond is one way to address problem→ Russia, China, and North Korea expansion arsenals


WHY DO STATES BUILD NUCLEAR WEAPONS? 

  • Nations develop nuclear weapons to enhance their security by deterring potential enemies from attacks + relies on belief that possessing nuclear capabilities prevent others from initiating conflicts

  • Nuclear weapons serve as power and national prestige; assert status on global stage and gain influence in international affairs 

  • Domestic legitimacy and rally public support; relevant in democracies where public opinion and politics are significant roles 

  • Existing nuclear powers and unstable environments; states perceive a need to acquire nuclear weapons as a means of balancing power or ensuring regional stability 

  • Building nuclear weapons requires advanced tech capabilities and state may pursue them for technological development and scientific advancement