The Great Mortality: A Comprehensive Study of the 14th Century Pandemic

Context and Comparative Perspectives on Global Pandemics

The Connection Between Trade and Disease
- Historical context: The rise of the Mongolian Empire and its successor states in the $13^{\text{th}}$ and $14^{\text{th}}$ centuries significantly increased the ease of travel and trade across Afro-Eurasia.
- Consequence: This increased connectivity facilitated the rapid spread of diseases, most notably the pandemic commonly called the Black Death, which the lecture identifies more accurately as the Great Mortality.
Modern Parallel: The $COVID-19$ Pandemic
- Purpose: Living through a global pandemic provides a unique historical perspective on social, political, and economic devastation.
- Statistical Comparison ( $2022$ Data):
  - $COVID-19$ deaths in the United States: $1,500,000$ .
  - $COVID-19$ deaths worldwide: $6,500,000$ .
  - Comparative Benchmark: World War II, one of history's deadliest conflicts, resulted in approximately $420,000$ American deaths. Thus, $COVID-19$ killed more than twice as many Americans in half the time it took for the war to conclude.
- Social and Political Discord:
  - The pandemic exacerbated existing social inequalities, leading to global protests and riots.
  - Political discord remains largely unresolved in the aftermath.
- Persecution and Blame:
  - Historically, people seek a target for blame, often marginalizing those who appear different.
  - During $COVID-19$ , the use of terms like "China virus" correlated with a surge in violence against Asian Americans.
  - Attacks on Asian Americans increased by nearly $100\text{\%}$ in the first year; in some specific cities, rates increased by $300\text{\%}$ to over $500\text{\%}$ .
- Heroism and Altruism: Despite the discord, health workers risked their lives in overcrowded conditions, and individuals assisted the less fortunate throughout the crisis.

The Testimony of Ibn Battuta

Witness to Transformation
- Ibn Battuta, a famous traveler of the period, documented the precipitous decline of major cities due to the plague.
The Case Study of Cairo
- Visit in $1325$ : Battuta described Cairo as a thriving, bustling metropolis of immense grandeur.
  - Statistics provided: $12,000$ water carriers, $30,000$ donkey rental businesses, and $35,000$ rivercraft.
- Visit in $1348$ : Battuta returned to find the city devastated by disease.
  - Daily Mortality: Battuta recorded $21,000$ deaths per day.
  - Personal Loss: He lamented the loss of everyone he previously knew and prayed for divine mercy.
Historical Interpretation: William McNeil
- In the book Plagues and Peoples, historian William McNeil characterizes Ibn Battuta’s accounts as the "most devastating natural catastrophe ever to have hit Eurasia."
- Effects noted by McNeil:
  - Millions of deaths.
  - Disruption of states and cessation of expansion.
  - Contraction of densely populated zones due to a cooling climate.
  - Drastic slowing or stopping of trade growth and cultural transmission.
  - Isolation from trade routes became a survival advantage.

Environmental Prerequisites: The Little Ice Age and Global Famine

Transition in Global Climate
- Pre- $13^{\text{th}}$ Century: A global warming period led to significant population growth.
- The Shift: Around $1300$ , the climate began cooling, entering a period known as the Little Ice Age. The transition period was the most devastating phase.
Climatic Indicators and Events
- Temperature Drop: In China, where the mean annual temperature had been above freezing since June, temperatures dropped below freezing in the $1300\text{s}$ .
- Glaciation: The Atlantic ice pack began to grow around $1300$ . Expanding glaciers trapped water, leading to droughts (less evaporation/rain) elsewhere.
- Northern Europe: Warm summers became undependable by $1300$ . The Thames River in London froze completely from $1309$ to $1310$ .
- Extreme Weather: Before full glaciation, cold and heavy rains caused massive flooding that destroyed crops and eroded coastlines.
The Great Famine and Global Resource Depletion
- Belgium ( $1316$ ): Lost $5\text{\%}$ to $10\text{\%}$ of its population in only $5$ months due to combined flooding and famine.
- General European/North African Impact: An estimated $10\text{\%}$ to $13\text{\%}$ of the population died within a $2$ -year span.
- Southwest North America: Lack of rainfall led to severe population loss in the $1300\text{s}$ ; thriving cities were abandoned by $1400$ . Legends link these displaced populations to the origin of the Aztec Empire.
- China: Experienced famines in $36$ out of the $100$ years of the $14^{\text{th}}$ century.
- Africa: In the Lake Chad region, water-demanding plants disappeared entirely.
- Indonesia ( $1310$ - $1315$ ): Extreme volcanic activity clouded the sun, impacting global weather as far away as Europe, increasing crop failure and dangerous weather patterns.

Origins and Transmission Dynamics

The Great Mortality Terminology
- The term "Great Mortality" is preferred because "Black Death" often refers only to the European experience and the disease symptoms, whereas Great Mortality encompasses the intersection of climate disaster and plague.
Why People Were Susceptible
- The preceding climate-driven famines left populations malnourished and physically weakened, lowering their immune defenses against the plague.
Spread of the Pathogen
- Direction of Travel: Trade routes (land and maritime) carried the disease from Central Asia or China westward. It is unclear if the specific strains in China were identical to those in the Middle East and Europe.
- Role of Animals:
  - Domesticated animals (horses, oxen, sheep, goats) were first seen dying on the Adriatic Coast.
  - In Egypt ( $1341$ ), the disease was observed spreading from grazing flocks on the steppe; sources noted the "stench" transmitted by the wind.
- Vectors: Fleas were the primary transmitters, spreading the bacteria by regurgitating or defecating into bite wounds.
- Carriers: While rats and gerbils are commonly blamed, other human-benefiting animals like squirrels, horses, goats, and camels also carried plague-bearing fleas.
- Human-to-Human transmission: Possible only via the pneumonic version of the disease.
Geographic Oddities
- The disease did not seem to penetrate tropical regions or cross into Sub-Saharan Africa, despite the existence of active trade routes.

Clinical Manifestations: The Nature of the Plague

Pathogen: Yersinia pestis
- While Yersinia pestis is confirmed, the lecture notes that medieval descriptions suggest a mixture of diseases was likely present, including typhus, smallpox, and influenza.
The Two Major Variations
1. Pneumonic Plague (Lungs)
  - Transmission: Direct human-to-human.
  - Symptoms: Spitting blood, headaches, rapid breathing, and strangely colored urine.
  - Fatality Rate: $50\text{\%}$ to $70\text{\%}$ .
2. Septicemic/Bubonic Plague (Blood)
  - Transmission: Flea bites.
  - Symptoms: Buboes (painful swellings in the neck, groin, armpits, or thighs that could be the size of a grapefruit), jitters, vomiting, dizziness, and extreme sensitivity to light.
  - Fatality Rate: Near $100\text{\%}$ .
  - Frequency: Despite being the "namesake" of the plague, it was less common than the pneumonic form; fewer than $1$ out of $6$ historical sources describe buboes.

Global Demographic Catastrophe

East Asia and Central Asia
- Northern China ( $1331$ ): Mortality rates reached $90\text{\%}$ .
- China ( $1353$ - $1354$ ): Two-thirds of the population in eight districts died.
- Crimea: $85,000$ people died in just $2$ years.
Europe
- Florence, Italy ( $1348$ ): Lost $80\text{\%}$ of its population in a single year.
- Southern France: Some villages lost four-fifths ( $80\text{\%}$ ) of their population.
- Barcelona, Spain: $60\text{\%}$ of church positions went vacant.
- Northern England: $40\text{\%}$ of the clergy died.
- Total European Loss: Over half of the total population died in a $4$ -year window.
Middle East and North Africa
- Damascus, Syria ( $1348$ ): $2,400$ deaths reported per day.
- Tunis: $1,000$ deaths reported per day.
Overall Statistics
- Total Estimated Global Death Toll: $75,000,000$ to $200,000,000$ people.
- Recovery: It took Europe $200$ years to return to its pre-plague population levels.

Sociopolitical and Cultural Consequences

Faith and Religion
- Religious responses varied between renewal and loss of faith.
- China: Religious revival fueled political revolution.
- Islamic World: A revival of local folk practices, such as magical spells, charms, and summoning spirits.
- Persecution of Outsiders: European Jews were falsely blamed and subjected to massacres. Pope Clement VI declared them innocent in July $1348$ and threatened excommunication for attackers, but the violence continued.
Scientific and Intellectual Shifts
- The concept of "corrupt air" (miasma) caused by astrological factors or decaying matter was the leading theory.
- There was a noticeable rise in experimentation and critical thinking as people sought solutions.
Social and Economic Mobility
- Depleted Workforces: Peasants gained significant leverage to demand higher wages and better conditions.
- Women's Empowerment: More men died than women, possibly due to more isolated lifestyles. This created a class of wealthy widows with land ownership. Laws shifted to accommodate female property ownership, leading to increased power for educated women of leisure.
Political Change and Revolution
- End of the Mongolian Empire: The plague halted Mongol expansion and forced a retreat, ending the previous global power balance.
- Regime Change: In China, peasant power and unrest led to the overthrow of the Yuan Dynasty (Mongol-led) and the rise of the Ming Dynasty in $1368$ .

Geographical Limits and Regional Resilience

Areas Escaping the Plague
- The Americas and the Pacific: Remained untouched by this specific pandemic (though disease would hit them centuries later).
- Regional Success: India, Southeast Asia, Japan, and Sub-Saharan Africa largely escaped the disaster.
- Resulting Opportunity: These unaffected regions grew into even stronger centers of trade as others collapsed.