Dannreuther 2017 - Energy security Ch.2

Understanding the Complexities of Energy Security: Analyzing Dimensions and Frameworks

Energy security is a complex, multi-dimensional concept that requires classification and categorization of its various dimensions. A leading handbook identifies nine dimensions, but there is no universally accepted definition. A common attempt to simplify the concept is to isolate four key elements: availability, reliability, affordability, and sustainability. This chapter aims to develop a more theoretically grounded analysis by locating energy security in the theoretical literature within security studies and International Relations, focusing on three distinctions: political and discrete vs. systemic and general applications, different energy sources, and the distinction between supply of energy resources and supply of energy services.

"The Evolving Dimensions of Energy Security in Security Studies"

The text discusses the complex and multi-faceted meanings of energy security, noting its shift in security studies from traditional military or geopolitical conceptions to broader conceptions. It highlights different theoretical conceptions of security including energy security, which compete with values such as prosperity, sustainability, and justice. Understanding energy security requires recognizing its continuous tension with these competing values, especially in terms of power and justice.

The Complex Interplay of Energy Security: Threats, Decisions, and Consequences

The text discusses the importance of energy security, noting that it affects both energy-producing and consuming states. It highlights potential threats to energy security, such as political decisions to impose sanctions on energy sectors of countries like Iran or Russia, or the EU's political ambition to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. It also emphasizes the unintentional consequences of complex interactions of multiple systems, actors, and processes, like climate change, which has contributed to the warming of the planet's climate.

Navigating the Complexities: Safeguarding Energy Security in the United States

The complexity of ensuring energy security in the United States is illustrated by the vast infrastructure, which includes numerous refineries, offshore platforms, pipelines, power plants, and electric power transmission and distribution lines. The security of this system is inherently complex due to its technical nature, legal and regulatory frameworks, and the involvement of various actors. Despite precautionary measures, unexpected challenges, such as hurricanes or policy flaws, can disrupt energy security, making it crucial to apply different dimensions of the concept depending on the specific energy source and activity in question.

The Complex Dynamics of Global Oil Security

Oil is central to energy security concerns due to its high economic value, vast global trade, and association with wealth and inequality. Most oil reserves are located in politically unstable regions, contributing to insecurity. Additionally, limited demand elasticity in the transportation sector and the possibility of diminishing oil resources further exacerbate these concerns. However, oil's efficient global market and transportation make it difficult to disrupt politically or militarily.

"The Complexities and Concerns of Europe's Energy Dependence"

Oil exports are more important for Russia than gas, but Europe is more concerned about gas disruption due to fixed pipelines and long-term contracts. Alternative gas supplies are costly and time-consuming to secure, as demonstrated by the failure of the Nabucco pipeline project. Other energy sources have unique security challenges, such as nuclear fuel risks, solar and wind supply variability, and coal's contribution to global carbon emissions and climate change.

The Evolution of Energy Security: From Fuels to Geopolitics

The text discusses the concept of energy security, distinguishing between energy fuels like oil and gas, and the services they support. It highlights the importance of energy systems for modern society and the issues faced by those lacking access to modern energy services. The concept of energy security has evolved over time, with increasing complexity and diverse dimensions, ranging from energy poverty to geopolitical and military concerns.

Expanding Notions of Energy Security: Addressing Environmental Challenges and Human Insecurities

The concept of energy security has expanded beyond traditional military threats to encompass environmental degradation, climate change, and human security. Security studies have similarly broadened to address non-military and non-traditional risks, such as overpopulation and water scarcity, migration, and human security. This shift reflects the need to prioritize individual needs and address insecurities beyond state-centric perspectives.

Understanding the Fluidity of Energy Security: The Shift from Cold War to Post-Cold War Dynamics

The post-Cold War security debate highlights that security is not static, but constantly shifting with changing ideas, perceptions, and norms. Security is deeply entwined with social and political dynamics, making it a process rather than an end-point. The concept of securitization helps understand energy security as a dynamic and fluid concept, influenced by power struggles and differing ideological frames.

The Role of Natural Resources in Contemporary Conflicts

Popular academic writer Michael Klare argues that the struggle for access and control of valuable natural resources is at the root of most contemporary conflicts, as energy resources are vital ingredients of national power and prosperity. This realist-inspired thesis captures the political imagination of many analysts and policymakers, as it highlights the competition and conflict between major consuming states such as the US and China and the influence of resource dependence on state policies.

The Geopolitical Struggle for Resources: A Clash of Perspectives

The discourse on geopolitical struggle between China, the West, and Russia over resources in Central Asia and Africa has resurfaced post-Cold War. This struggle has raised concerns over resource-driven wars and has been linked to the realist tradition in International Relations. The realist approach, focusing on states as key actors in the international energy sector, has been criticized by liberalism for its narrow perspective, as it neglects other key actors such as corporations, regional bodies, and NGOs. The liberal approach emphasizes the complexity and interdependence of the global market, where energy resources are developed and processed by companies, rather than political interventions.

Navigating Security in a Complex World: Liberalism's Pluralistic Approach

Liberalism argues that security comes through limiting the state's role, promoting market forces, transparency, and strengthening institutions. This approach contrasts with realism, focusing on political and military dimensions. It emphasizes a more pluralistic and interconnected approach, considering global energy systems' complexity and non-traditional security threats, such as energy poverty.

"A Radical Critique of Realism and Liberalism: Unveiling Structural Inequalities in International Relations"

The text discusses a third, radical tradition in International Relations that critiques both realism and liberalism. This tradition, rooted in Marxism, argues that neither promotes genuine change and instead perpetuates existing injustices. Realism is criticized for assuming no radical change, while liberalism is seen as defending global capitalism domination and perpetuating structural inequalities. The importance of this tradition lies in its influence on intellectual and political struggles surrounding energy industries.

Finding the Balance: Energy Security and Economic Efficiency

Energy security is a value that competes with the values of prosperity and economic efficiency, reflecting the costs associated with providing security. It also competes with sustainability, as energy systems must transition away from fossil fuels due to climate change. State-directed policies may be necessary to promote energy security, but the realist and liberal analyses debate the appropriate balance between security and economic efficiency.

"Balancing Energy Security, Prosperity, Sustainability, and Justice for a Sustainable Global Energy System"

The text discusses the importance of balancing energy security, prosperity, sustainability, and justice in achieving a sustainable global energy system. It highlights the challenges arising from competing values and emphasizes the need for a grounded political approach to address the inequalities and insecurities generated by existing energy structures. The historical context of energy security is also considered, recognizing the varying ways history can be presented and the transition from traditional pre-modern agrarian economies to modern industrial economies reliant on fossil fuels.

Exploring the Historical Paradigm Shift: From Energy Scarcity to Abundance

The text discusses the historical transition from energy scarcity to abundance, resulting in rapid human population growth, economic expansion, and significant per capita income increase. This shift allowed civilizations to overcome previous limitations and achieve unprecedented growth.

Energy Security: An Analytical and Theoretical Framework

•Energy security is a multi-dimensional concept that presents challenges in defining its meaning and scope.

•A leading handbook on energy security identifies nine dimensions: climate change, sustainable development, maritime, public policy, diversification, environmental, energy poverty, social development, energy services, and industrial.

•Different approaches to energy security include scientific, economic, ecological, social welfare, and geopolitical perspectives.

•Energy security can have a temporal dimension, with varying opinions on whether perceived risks are short-term or long-term.

•The scale of energy security analysis can vary, from global to local levels.

•There is no universally accepted core definition of energy security.

•Attempts to bring order to the concept include isolating four key elements: availability, reliability, affordability, and sustainability.

•Descriptors for these elements may vary, such as availability, accessibility, affordability, and acceptability.

•These categorizations separate geopolitical dimensions from systems-specific, environmental, and energy poverty dimensions.

•However, they do not provide a theoretical grounding for the concept or consider the interaction of energy security, power, and justice.

•This chapter aims to develop a more theoretically grounded analysis by locating energy security within the security studies and international relations disciplines.

•The chapter identifies three critical distinctions in the application of the concept: political and discrete vs. systemic and general applications, energy security applied to different energy sources, and the distinction between the security of energy resources and energy services.

Energy Security

•The second section discusses the evolving meanings of energy security and the shift in security studies towards broader conceptions of security.

•Different conceptions of security, including energy security, are influenced by normative theoretical perspectives such as realism, liberalism, and radicalism.

•Energy security is a competing value that is in tension with prosperity, sustainability, and justice.

•There is no single, comprehensive definition of energy security due to its complex nature.

•The concept of energy security can be applied to perceived risks and threats that come from intentional or unintentional acts.

•Examples of intentional acts include a state undermining energy supply to harm other states' interests, such as Iran potentially cutting off the Strait of Hormuz.

•Another example is Russia threatening to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine, posing a major threat to European energy interests.

Energy Security and its Complex Interactions

•Energy security threats can affect both energy-producing and energy-consuming states.

•Sanctions on energy sectors, such as those imposed on Iran or Russia, harm the energy security interests of producing states.

•Countries with large energy demand, like the European Union, pose a long-term threat to traditional energy suppliers by reducing their dependence on fossil fuels.

•The unintentional consequences of complex interactions between multiple systems, actors, and processes can pose risks and threats to energy security.

•The intersection of climate change with energy security represents the extreme of these systemic challenges.

•The concept of the Anthropocene recognizes the interconnectedness of human-influenced systems, including energy systems, with the Earth's ecosystems.

•Energy security that incorporates this global and ecological systemic aspect differs from its immediate political context.

•Modern energy systems are complex and interconnected, encompassing the entire energy supply chain and infrastructure.

Energy Security: Challenges and Distinctions

•The energy infrastructure in the US includes refineries, offshore platforms, oil pipelines, power plants, electric power transmission lines, gas storage fields, and natural gas pipelines.

•Ensuring the security of this complex system requires technical knowledge, legal and regulatory frameworks, and coordination among multiple actors.

•Unforeseen events like natural disasters or poor policy decisions can challenge the security and integrity of energy systems.

•Energy security can be understood in different ways depending on whether it is applied to discrete political risks or systemic complexities.

•Political factors remain central to energy security, but the instruments used may vary from military to legal and regulatory.

•The concept of energy security is applied differently to different energy sources, including oil, gas, coal, nuclear, and renewable energy.

•Energy security is also influenced by activities along the global value chain, such as exploration, production, transportation, processing, and consumption.

•The actual value of an energy source can impact its importance for energy security.

Energy Security

•Oil is the most prominent energy source in terms of concerns over energy security, due to its economic value.

•Oil represents the largest component of international trade, with almost seven out of every ten barrels being exported.

•Oil is associated with wealth and global and social inequality, as it generates high economic rent.

•The main reserves of oil are located in politically unstable parts of the world, adding to the association of oil with energy insecurity.

•There are concerns that oil is a scarce and diminishing resource, and that the world may have already reached peak production.

•The transportation sector heavily relies on oil, leading to limited demand elasticity and serious energy security concerns.

•The oil market, once oil reaches the world's oceans, is global and efficient, making it difficult to intervene politically or militarily.

•The use of oil as a "weapon" has generally failed due to the strength and fungibility of the market.

•Unlike oil, the international transportation of gas supplies presents the most serious energy security concerns.

•Russian energy supplies to Europe illustrate the challenges in gas transportation.

Energy Security and Its Challenges

•Oil exports to Europe are economically significant for Russia, generating greater revenues than gas exports.

•European consuming states are less concerned about potential disruptions in oil supplies as they can easily be compensated through supplies from other producing regions.

•However, there is greater anxiety about potential threats of a gas cut-off, as Russian gas is supplied through fixed intercontinental pipelines and involves long-term contractual arrangements.

•Securing alternative gas supplies is both expensive and time-consuming for European countries heavily dependent on Russian gas.

•The EU has faced difficulties in diversifying away from Russia, as seen in the failure to secure funding and support for the development of the alternative Nabucco gas pipeline.

•Nuclear energy poses risks in the processing stage, with the potential for countries to produce highly enriched weapons-grade uranium, undermining the nuclear non-proliferation norm.

•Safety concerns exist for nuclear generating plants, highlighted by the accidents at Chernobyl in 1986 and Fukushima in 2011.

•The safe storage and protection of spent nuclear fuel pose long-term security challenges.

•Modern renewables, such as wind and solar, are susceptible to intermittency and variability, requiring alternative and potentially expensive back-ups.

•Coal is relatively inexpensive and abundant, and many developing countries rely heavily on domestic coal resources for electricity generation.

•However, coal contributes significantly to environmental degradation and global carbon emissions.

•Coal represents a tension between national energy security and the global systemic threat posed by climate change.

•Energy security must incorporate the global environmental dimension.

Energy Security

•Energy security is a political issue that both supports and adversely affects energy security.

•Energy security can be applied to energy fuels and the services they support.

•Energy resources are valuable because of the services and benefits they offer, such as heating, transportation, communication, food, consumer products, and housing.

•The well-being and prosperity of a modern society depend on the modern energy systems that support these services.

•Energy security is defined as minimizing risk to energy-dependent services.

•Prosperous citizens in the rich industrialized world rarely suffer from energy insecurity, but it is a significant issue in the poorer developing world.

•Approximately 1.4 billion people lack access to electricity, and 2.4 billion lack modern cooking services.

•Lack of access to modern energy systems has serious implications for individual insecurity, health, poverty, and social advancement in developing countries.

•Energy security encompasses energy poverty and has a strong developmental dimension.

•The concept of energy security is fluid and diverse, including dimensions such as energy poverty, climate change, and geopolitical and military-related concerns.

•Energy security gained popularity in the 1970s with the rise of OPEC, increasing oil prices, and conflict in the Middle East.

•Since then, the environmental movement has also become prominent in discussions of energy security.

Energy Security and its Evolution in Security Studies

•The issue of the contribution of fossil fuels to environmental degradation has led to a redefinition of energy security.

•Nuclear disasters, such as Chernobyl in 1986, highlighted the systemic risks associated with modern energy systems.

•Post-Cold War civil wars in Sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere emphasized the linkages between security, development, energy poverty, and energy insecurity.

•The concept of energy security has widened and expanded in line with broader developments in the field of security studies.

•During the Cold War, security was primarily viewed through the lens of military threats, particularly the prospect of a nuclear war with the Soviet Union.

•The focus on European-centered threats shifted with wars of liberation in the colonial world and increased confrontation between North and South, including the challenge posed by OPEC.

•After the Cold War, there was a shift towards recognizing non-military and non-traditional security risks and threats.

•Environmental degradation, including climate change, marked the significant expansion of security studies beyond traditional military concerns.

•Growing fears of mass migration highlighted the importance of national identities in the study of security.

•Civil wars and deprivation in Sub-Saharan Africa led to demands for security studies to prioritize the needs and demands of affected populations.

•This led to a critique of traditional security studies for primarily focusing on state security rather than human security.

•Security studies have broadened and widened in similar ways to the changes in the meanings of energy security.

•Some argue that these developments have made the study of security incoherent and increased the risk of military responses being considered for problems that require alternative approaches.

Energy Security: An Analytical and Theoretical Framework

•Security is not a static and objective reality, but a shifting concept influenced by changing ideas, perceptions, and norms.

•Security is a process that is deeply connected to social and political dynamics.

•Securitization is the process by which certain concerns are recognized and accepted as security issues.

•Securitization involves convincing a wider audience of the urgency of an issue and the need for exceptional measures.

•The designation of "security" prioritizes an issue and allocates resources for dealing with it.

•The concept of securitization applies to energy security, which is a dynamic and contested concept.

•Energy security is influenced by different interest groups and ideological frames.

•There are two main approaches to energy security: geopolitical/mercantilist and liberal/market-driven/pluralist.

•These approaches reflect the classical divide in International Relations theories.

Relations Theory between Realism and Liberalism in Energy Security

•The realist approach to energy security, although sometimes seen as outdated, is still popular and relevant.

•Michael Klare, a well-known writer on energy matters, adopts a realist framework in his books.

•Klare argues that the Cold War struggles between capitalism and communism have been replaced by a geopolitical struggle for control of natural resources.

•Klare identifies resources, rather than differences in civilizations or identities, as the root cause of contemporary conflicts.

•According to Klare, energy resources are vital for national power and prosperity, leading to competition and potential military actions between states.

•Growing Asian states, such as China and India, are sensitive about their dependence on energy imports and have adopted a mercantilist and geopolitical approach.

•Distrust between major consuming states is exacerbated by the fact that the largest reserves of energy resources are located in regions with weak and fragile states.

•Klare suggests the potential for civil wars or adoption of anti-Western policies in resource-rich countries.

•Klare sees a connection between oil and the emergence of extremist Islamist groups like al-Qaeda.

•The competition and conflict between the United States and China in energy security is influenced by the growth of Chinese presence in Africa and Latin America.

•Russia's energy influence on Europe affects Western perceptions of Russia's policies towards Ukraine.

The Geopolitical and Liberal Approaches to Energy Security

•Geopolitical approach: Discourse on a renewed post-Cold War 'great game' in Central Asia and a 'scramble for Africa' between China, the West, and Russia over oil, gas, and mineral resources.

•Concern over resource-driven wars in the post-Cold War era.

•Research by Paul Collier shows that most post-Cold War civil wars are driven by 'greed' for valuable natural resources, not 'grievance' issues such as ideology or identity.

•Realist tradition in International Relations emphasizes the anarchical international system and the primacy of sovereign states as actors.

•Liberal approach: Acceptance of the realist assumption of anarchy in the international system, but emphasizes its partial and limited understanding.

•Liberalism argues for a more complex, pluralist, and interdependent world.

•Liberal critiques of the realist approach in relation to energy security.

•Realism's exclusive focus on states as key actors marginalizes other actors such as companies, regional and international bodies, NGOs, and civil society groups.

•Energy resources are often developed and processed by companies in a global market independent of politics.

•States primarily intervene through regulatory frameworks rather than political or military interventions.

•Global oil and gas markets are integrated, with a trajectory towards enhanced transparency and openness to market forces.

•The liberal approach to energy security.

Security Challenges and the Liberal Perspective on Energy Security

•Security challenges realism by arguing that security comes through restricting, rather than expanding, the role of the state.

•From the liberal perspective, security is achieved by accepting the complexity of global energy systems and recognizing that states do more harm than good by intervening in these systems.

•Three liberal prescriptions for energy security:

•Promotion of market forces through deregulation, liberalization, and privatization of energy markets. States have a limited role in structuring and regulating the market, but not as an independent force or supplanting the market.

•Enhancement of transparency and pluralism in policy making and institutional arrangements, which requires a pluralistic political system, open democratic practices, and respect for human rights.

•Promotion and strengthening of regional and international institutions to mitigate exclusive state sovereignty and support international coordination and cooperation in the energy sector.

•The liberal approach to energy security recognizes a globalized market structure with a complex array of actors and processes, emphasizing interdependence and operating with clear norms and practices.

•The liberal approach also influences the promotion of human security and addresses energy poverty within the scope of energy security.

•The analysis in the rest of the book is influenced by the competing realist and liberal theoretical approaches to energy security.

•There is a third tradition in classical International Relations theory, apart from realism and liberalism, that provides an alternative framework for understanding energy security dynamics.

Marxist-inspired radical or critical approach to International Relations

•The Marxist-inspired radical or critical approach to International Relations critiques both realist and liberal approaches.

•Realism is considered flawed because it assumes no potential for radical change and condones structural injustices.

•Liberalism is seen as perpetuating unjust structures of power and domination, defending global capitalism.

•Dependency theory views economic liberalism as an ideological justification for imperialism.

•Contemporary critical theorists criticize liberals for relying on technical solutions rather than questioning the moral and political legitimacy of the international system.

•Radical green advocates blame liberalism's commitment to economic growth and global capitalism for the environmental crisis.

•Incorporating the Marxist-inspired radical tradition is important in understanding the intellectual and political struggles surrounding the energy industries.

•The history of coal and the rise of OPEC cannot be understood without considering the radical challenge to perceived injustices.

•The linkage of oil with Western imperialism remains a powerful force in the Middle East and elsewhere.

•Resource nationalism and the re-nationalization of the oil industry in various countries during the 2000s are influenced by radical ideologies.

•The global energy industries are targeted by radical environmental, anti-globalization, indigenous peoples, and other movements.

•Considerations of this radical tradition are necessary in discussing energy security as a value.

Energy Security and its Relationship with Justice, Prosperity, and Sustainability

•Justice is a key aspect of energy security, but it is just one element in a multi-dimensional conceptualization of energy security that needs to be considered within a broader analytical framework.

•Energy security is a value that is essential for the preservation of the "good life" and should be understood in relation to other core values.

•Security is often defined as the absence of threats to acquired values.

•Security is important for the promotion of a harmonious polity, as external threats to society's values create fear and anxiety, undermining the prospects of a good life.

•However, security cannot be an absolute value because risk, contingency, and competition are essential attributes of other values that societies hold as important.

•A market-based economy requires a competitive and risk-based framework that generates insecurity, as prosperity requires a certain amount of insecurity.

•Seeking absolute security can result in substantial economic losses, as the Soviet Union discovered.

•Realist and liberal approaches to energy security offer different interpretations of the appropriate balance between security and economic efficiency.

•The realist analysis focuses on protecting the state's energy interests by minimizing or neutralizing external threats, while the liberal analysis emphasizes promoting and institutionalizing global energy systems' economic and political interdependence.

•The liberal perspective believes that more efficient and secure energy markets can be achieved, leading to both economic growth and energy supply security.

•The realist perspective is more skeptical about guaranteeing such a virtuous cycle and emphasizes the need for specific state-directed energy security policies.

•Energy security competes with the value of prosperity and economic efficiency, as providing security generally costs money.

•Sustainability is another value increasingly competing with energy security, particularly considering the environmental challenges posed by climate change and the need to transition away from fossil fuels.

•Promoting energy security without considering sustainability is not in society's best interest.

Energy Security: An Analytical and Theoretical Framework

•The definition of energy security encompasses the sensitivity to varying contexts, political and systemic dimensions, energy resource specificities, and the distinction between access to energy resources and energy services.

•The study of energy security is situated within international security studies, exploring tensions and conflicts through competing normative frameworks of realism, liberalism, and radicalism.

•Different conceptualizations of energy security generate national and international conflicts, but also present opportunities for cooperation.

•Energy security involves contestation and political processes, where power and justice issues play a critical role, alongside economic prosperity and sustainability.

•The next chapter will delve into the historical development of energy security, presenting two potential narratives: the path towards modernity and the transition from traditional agrarian economies to the expansion of fossil fuel-based industrial economies.

The Impact of Resource Constraints on Civilization Development and Population Growth

•In the past, resource constraints limited the development of earlier civilizations.

•These constraints resulted in scarcity and high cost of energy.

•However, currently, energy is cheap and abundant.

•The human population has significantly increased from one billion in 1800 to seven billion in 2015.

•The world economy has grown 120 times larger since 1500, with most of the growth occurring after 1820 and especially in the period 1950-73.

•Despite the population growth, per capita income has grown nine-fold.

•The impact of resource constraints and increased energy availability has been documented by various authors such as Sieferle (2001), Crosby (2006), Smil (1994), McNeill (2000), and Kander et al. (2014).