GEOS1100 LEC2

Introduction

• Greetings from Aud Bernard, a population geographer at UQ.

• Overview of upcoming lectures and topics on global population trends and their implications for land use change.

• Importance of taking notes due to the content-heavy nature of the course.

Demography

• Definition: Study of human populations (population geography).

• Quote by David Foot: "Demography accounts for two thirds of everything."

• Demography's relevance to societal issues and the need to understand current trends.

• Key areas of interest in demography:

  • Population growth or decline.

  • Characteristics of populations (age, sex, education).

  • Geographic distribution of populations.

Global Population Trends

• Regions with declining populations (e.g., Eastern Asia, Eastern Europe, Southern Europe).

• Regions with growing populations (e.g., Sub-Saharan Africa).

• Implications for geopolitical dynamics and labor markets.

• Importance of understanding historical population data to project future trends.

Current Population Statistics

• Global population currently estimated at over 8 billion.

• UN projects stabilization at approximately 10.2 billion by the century's end.

• Historical population growth trends:

  • Slow initial growth until the late 19th century.

  • Acceleration post-World War II.

  • Recent slowdown in growth rates.

Concerns About Population Growth

• Divided opinions on population growth: worried vs. unconcerned.

• Key figures:

  • Paul Ehrlich: pessimist, sees population as a threat.

  • Julian Simon: optimist, believes more people lead to more solutions.

• Policy implications:

  • High levels of immigration contribute to labor force growth and tax revenue.

Historical Context: Malthusian Theory

• Thomas Malthus's view: population growth exceeds food supply, leading to famine or war.

• Historical events like the Black Death influenced Malthus’s thinking.

• Historical improvements in agriculture (e.g., Industrial Revolution) countered Malthusian predictions.

Neo-Malthusian Views

• Post-World War II concerns about rapid population growth and environmental impacts.

• Neo-Malthusians advocate for population control measures, including modern contraception.

• Historical famines declined despite population growth due to improvements in agricultural productivity.

Population and Environmental Impact

• Impact of population size on the environment: not just numbers, but efficiency and affluence matter.

• IPAT Equation: Impact on the environment = Population × Affluence × Technology.

  • Highlights the complexity of environmental impact.

Current Demographic Transition

• Understanding the demographic transition model (DTM): stages of population growth across history.

  • Stage 1: High birth and death rates, stable population.

  • Stage 2: Declining death rates; rapid population growth.

  • Stage 3: Declining birth rates; further slowing growth.

  • Stage 4: Low birth and death rates; stabilized population.

  • Stage 5: Countries with very low birth rates facing potential decline (e.g., South Korea).

Conclusion

• The importance of grasping demographic concepts for future labor market implications and policy creation.

• Encouragement to stay informed on population issues as they pertain to students' future roles.