The Future of Peacekeeping & Enforcement in Somalia and the Horn of Africa

Course & Assignment Context

• Course: Introduction to Peace and Conflict Studies – Course Code: IRL $3015$
• Lecturer: Dr. Fatuma Ali
• Group Assignment (Group $1$) – Members: Peris Awiti $670243$, Resian Marima $669948$, Wendy Aboudha $669434$, Senio Musanhu $670481$, Kimani Alvin $671234$, Sonia Joy Achieng $668345$, Glen Washington $666723$, Elijah Mutuku $669934$, Ashley Zawadi $671043$

Somalia: Introduction – A Crucible of Conflict & Intervention

• State collapse after Siad Barre regime in $1991$ triggered:
  • Transition from conventional civil war → clan‐based warlordism → globalized jihadist insurgency (Al-Shabaab).
• Somalia as a “laboratory” for evolving UN/AU intervention: traditional peacekeeping → robust peace enforcement.
• Central paradox: coercive external military action ≠ coherent political strategy + local legitimacy.
• “Intervention Trap”:
  • Continuous foreign troop presence stops total collapse & Al-Shabaab expansion.
  • Yet entrenches Somali National Army (SNA) dependency, weak institutions, and political complacency among elites.
• Proxy theatre for Turkey, UAE, Qatar, Kenya, Ethiopia, etc. – intervention as part of conflict system; premature exit ⇒ Al-Shabaab surge, continued stay ⇒ sovereignty stalled.

Historical Roots of Conflict

Pre-Colonial Era

• Multi-sultanate landscape: Ajuran ($13^{th}$–$17^{th}$ c.), Adal ($14^{th}$–$16^{th}$ c.), Ifat (precursor of Adal), Geleedi ($18^{th}$–$19^{th}$ c.), Majeerteen & Hobyo ($19^{th}$ c.).

Clan Rivalry & Resource Competition

• Patrilineal clans as political–military units:
  • Grazing & water (e.g., Darod vs Hawiye).
  • Territorial disputes (Isaaq vs Dir).
  • Livestock raiding → revenge cycles.

Sultanate Expansion Wars

• Adal–Abyssinian Wars (early $1500$s): Imam Ahmad ibn Ibrahim al-Ghazi’s jihad → halted by Abyssinian-Portuguese coalition.
• Geleedi & others fought over Jubba/Shabelle riverine trade–farmland corridors.

Colonial Partition ($1884$–$1960$)

• Scramble for Africa → $5$ Somali regions: British Somaliland, Italian Somaliland, French Somaliland (Djibouti), Ogaden (Ethiopia), Northern Frontier District (Kenya).
• British rule (indirect): Dervish Resistance ($1899$–$1920$) – Sayyid Mohamed Abdullah Hassan “Mad Mullah.”
• Italian rule (direct): infrastructure + harsh repression; Fascist period $1930$s-$1941$ intensified exploitation.

Post-Independence to State Collapse

• Siad Barre ($1969$–$1991$): Cold-War patronage, clan favoritism, oppression.
• Ogaden War $1977$–$1978$ pivoted Somalia from USSR → USA.
• Barre ousted Jan $1991$ by USC, SNM, SPM; vacuum → civil war.

Civil War Dynamics

• USC split (Aidid vs Ali Mahdi) – Mogadishu battle zone.
• Warlordism: mini-state fiefdoms, trade & taxation monopoly, lawlessness.
• Humanitarian catastrophe → early UN/US peacekeeping attempts ($1992$–$1995$) failed (Battle of Mogadishu $1993$).

Trajectory of International Intervention

Peacekeeping vs Peace Enforcement – Doctrinal & Ethical Issues

• Traditional Peacekeeping (Ch VI): consent + impartiality + minimal force (self-defence).
• Peace Enforcement (Ch VII): no consent, proactive force, impose peace.
• Somalia: Ch VI model failed; necessity pushed AU to enforcement – raises:
  • Loss of neutrality → AU seen as combatant.
  • Civilian harm from heavy weapons → legitimacy erosion, Al-Shabaab propaganda.
  • Regime-protection dilemma supporting perceived corrupt FGS.

Current Conflict Drivers & Internal Dynamics

Al-Shabaab’s Enduring Pillars

• Financial empire ≈ $100$ million +/year via taxation, ports, charcoal.
• Governance gap exploitation → sharia courts, swift justice → perceived efficiency.
• Tactical adaptability: rural guerrilla, IEDs, suicide bombings (e.g., El-Adde $2016$).

Clan Politics & Fragmented Security Sector

• Federal structure magnifies Hawiye, Darod, Dir, Isaaq competition.
• Tension FGS vs Federal Member States (FMS).
• SNA = mosaic of clan militias; ghost soldiers, regional loyalty, cohesion deficit.

ATMIS/AUSSOM – Operational Realities

• Funding precarity: arrears on stipends; UNSC $2719$ framework (UN $75\%$ funding) still contested (US scepticism).
• Transition timeline misaligned with SNA capability → drawdown pauses.
• Static Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) – defensive dispersion; supply routes under IED threat; reliance on UNSOS airlift.
• Protection-of-Civilians (PoC) dilemma: communities desire security yet resent collateral damage.

Regional Actors & Interests

Ethiopia

• Major TCC since $2014$; combats Al-Shabaab.
• Tigray war pulled troops; $2024$ MoU with Somaliland (Berbera port access) → Mogadishu sovereignty dispute; potential naval base.

Kenya

• KDF entered $2011$ (Operation Linda Nchi); mentors Jubaland forces; secures supply routes.
• Economic agenda: trade at $\$124.5$ million ($2022$) exports; EAC integration.

Djibouti

• Hosts US, France, Japan, Italy, China bases; gateway at Bab-el-Mandeb; revenue vs dependency; US-China rivalry risk.

Geopolitical Chessboard – Patronage Marketplace

• External patrons (Turkey, UAE, Qatar, US, EU, Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti).
• Turkey trains Gorgor & Haram’ad for FGS; UAE arms Puntland, etc.
• US backs elite Danab brigade.
• Fragmented security architecture: multiple externally funded units → undermines unified state.

Re-Imagining Future Approaches

Hybrid AU-UN Financing & Command

• Institutionalize predictable funding per UNSC $2719$; overcome ad-hoc logistics.

Locally-Led Security Governance

• Leverage Macawisley clan militias – integrate via “Community-Based Security Governance” to avoid new warlordism.

“Smart” Counter-Terrorism

• Target Al-Shabaab finances: financial intelligence sharing, sanctions, empower Somali FRC.

Tech-Enabled Peace Enforcement

• ISR drones, satellite, data platforms (SAGE, Unite Aware) for early-warning & civilian protection; ensure IHL compliance.

Key Lessons Learned

1. Primacy of inclusive politics – military gains fragile without reconciliation & constitutional settlement.
2. Genuine local ownership – empower traditional mechanisms, grassroots justice, clan reconciliation.
3. Predictable, adequate funding – ad-hoc donor model undermines missions.
4. Security-Development Nexus – jobs, education, services crucial to undercut Al-Shabaab recruitment.

Four Strategic Axes for a New Course

1. Political Primacy: Military subordinate to Somali-led political roadmap.
2. Formalized Local Ownership: Integrate community forces; finance grassroots peacebuilding.
3. Manage Regional Rivalry: AU & UN coordinate to deter proxy competition; enforce accountability.
4. Holistic Security-Development: Synchronize security operations with tangible development & youth employment.

Regional Spillover & Contagion

• Ethiopia & Kenya: Al-Shabaab retaliation, border disputes, internal fragilities (e.g., Ethiopia’s Tigray).
• Sudan & South Sudan: refugee flows, arms proliferation; governance failures (high corruption indices) mirror Somali challenges.

Conclusion – Central Takeaways

• Decades of intervention reveal limits of external peace enforcement; cycle of dependency & geopolitical contestation.
• Sustainable peace = empowered Somalis, legitimate politics, community security, managed regional interests, secure & predictable mission financing.
• International community must shift from primary guarantor → supportive partner nurturing conditions for locally owned peace.

References (Selected)

• Ahmed Ali, F. ($2021$). Potential Impact of Ethiopia’s War in Tigray on Somali Stability. ISPI.
• Crisis Group ($2012$). The Kenyan Military Intervention in Somalia.
• UNSC Resolution $2719$ ($2023$) – Financing AU-led PSOs.
• UNODC ($2024$). More Powerful by the Day – Terror Financing in Somalia.
• Masuda, K. ($2023$). Foreign Military Bases in Djibouti.
• Others: Amani Africa, CSIS, ISS, NYU CIC, Georgetown GJIA, Leiden Repository, etc.