International Relations and Security Issues of East Asia

Introduction

• The 21st century is predicted to be a century of Asia, with economic domination shifting from the West to the East.

• The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) represent a significant portion of the world population and gross world product.

• The United States has announced a geostrategic shift towards East Asia, with a focus on the Asia Pacific region.

US Security Strategy in East Asia

• The rise of China has led to a political and military cold war between the United States and China.

• The United States has a historical presence in East Asia, with involvement in conflicts such as the Philippine-American war, the Pacific war, the Korean war, the Vietnam war, and bombing campaigns in Cambodia and Laos.

• During the Cold War, the United States had strategic goals of preventing the expansion of the Soviet Union, the People's Republic of China (PRC), and a militarily resurgent Japan.

Evolution of US Strategy from Clinton to Biden

• During the Clinton administration, the United States expressed its willingness to maintain military presence in East Asia and strengthen security ties with traditional and new military partners.

• The Bush administration designated the Philippines and Thailand as major non-NATO allies and proposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement.

• The Obama administration focused on military initiatives in the region, leading to tensions with China.

• The Trump administration viewed China as a revisionist power and emphasized the need to counterbalance China's influence in the region.

• The Biden administration's Pacific pivot aims to strengthen US presence and influence in Asia through strategic and multi-dimensional cooperation with Asian states.

US Security Threats in East Asia

• Persistent and emerging threats in East Asia include North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile programs, disputes over natural resources, natural disasters, poverty, pandemic diseases, environmental degradation, illicit trafficking, and disruptive activities in space and cyberspace.

• Strategic threats to the United States in East Asia include the rise of China, potential interstate conflicts, and the rise of Islamist militancy.

ANZUS

• The United States, Japan, and Australia established the trilateral strategic dialogue to maintain stability and security in the Asia Pacific region, welcoming China's constructive engagement.

Note: This summary includes the main ideas and supporting details from the given transcript.

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• US collective defense agreements:

  • NATO (April 1949)

  • ANZUS - Australia, New Zealand (September 1951)

  • Philippines (August 1951)

  • South east Asia treaty – Australia, France, New Zealand, Philippines, Thailand, United Kingdom (September 1954)

  • Japan (January 1960)

  • South Korea (October 1953)

  • Rio treaty – South America (1947)

• Major US allies in southeast Asia:

  • Australia

  • New Zealand

  • Japan

  • South Korea

  • Philippines

  • Thailand

  • Singapore

  • Vietnam

• Australia and New Zealand as main allies in Asia Pacific region:

  • Shared values and historical experience originating in the United Kingdom

  • Fought alongside the United States in World War II, Korean War, and Vietnam War

  • Australia integrated its troops with the United States

  • Access to Pine Gap satellite tracking station

  • Modernization of naval base at Manus Island

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• Relations with Japan:

  • Japan plays an indispensable role in America's original alliance structure

  • Strongest ally in Asia

  • Common strategic outlook regarding rising China and North Korea nuclear threat

  • Issues with US forces on Okinawa

  • Agreement to reduce US marine presence on Okinawa

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• Drifting apart between the United States and South Korea:

  • Differences in approach towards North Korea

  • Previous South Korean government favored engagement with North Korea

  • Younger South Koreans less concerned about the threat from North Korea

• China's security strategy in East Asia:

  • Historical events such as the Opium War and Chinese-Japanese war

  • Great Chinese famine and the Great Leap Forward

  • Ideology of liberating Chinese people from the West

  • Current ideology of the communist government in China

  • Tensions between China and India

  • Chinese investments and growing influence worldwide

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• China's increasing militarization and interests in the Indian Ocean:

  • Concern for India and other states

  • Chinese investments in Sri Lanka

  • China's growing policy and strengthening its position in Cambodia and Sri Lanka

  • Importance of the Indian Ocean for China's economy

• China's territorial claims and military modernization:

  • Nine-Dash Line and disputed territories in the South China Sea

  • China's investment in modernizing its army

  • Mao's reforms and strategies during his leadership in China

Page 7: Potential War Triggers

• Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement (RCEP)

  • China concluded negotiations on this free trade agreement with 15 countries, covering 30% of the world's population and global GDP.

  • The United States and its allies are concerned about China's territorial claims in the South China Sea.

• China's territorial disputes

  • China has disputes with the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunet, and Japan.

  • Vietnam is particularly concerned and has improved ties with the United States.

• China's control over the South China Sea

  • China has pressured Vietnam out of oil and gas exploration in the disputed waters.

  • China has designed new platforms to strengthen its control over the sea.

• China's expansion in Southeast Asia and Oceania

  • China's expansion includes Malaysia, Micronesia, and Polynesia.

  • These regions are located far away from significant centers of gravity.

  • The total population of the region, including Australia and New Zealand, is roughly 40 million people.

  • Oceania includes Australasia, comprising Australia, New Zealand, New Guinea, Micronesia, and Polynesia.

• China's attempts to control Tulagi Island

  • Beijing has been trying to gain control over Tulagi Island, which is currently controlled by the Solomon Islands.

  • The island has a deep water harbor and has strategic importance.

  • The national government declared the deal illegal, but China's growing appetite for control is a concern for Australia and New Zealand.

Page 8: China's Growing Influence in Oceania

• China's construction projects in Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea

  • China built a new wharf in Vanuatu, raising concerns that it could be converted into a military outpost.

  • China has been constructing various infrastructure projects in Papua New Guinea, including a port and airport.

  • Papua New Guinea has welcomed Chinese presence and asked for military training and debt refinancing.

• US response to China's influence

  • The White House agreed to support Australia and Papua New Guinea in reactivating and modernizing the lombrum naval base.

  • China deployed its scientific service in Papua New Guinea's exclusive economic zone, raising concerns about military data collection.

• Geostrategic calculations of China and the United States

  • China aims to expand its defense lines and establish a permanent military base in the South Pacific.

  • The United States aims to counter China's expansion and protect its military facilities in Guam.

  • Both countries have economic reasons for expanding sea lines of communication and accessing new markets and natural resources.

• China's influence in the region and Taiwan

  • China's activities in the region have political implications, including influencing countries to sever ties with Taiwan.

  • The Solomon Islands and Kiribati recently cut ties with Taiwan.

Page 9: Japan's New Approach to National Security

• Japan's post-WWII constitution and Article 9

  • Japan's constitution was prepared by the US, converting Japan into a democracy.

  • Article 9 prohibits Japan from maintaining regular armed forces and joining military alliances.

• Japan's disputes with China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands

  • The conflict over these islands dates back to the Sino-Japanese War of 1894.

  • Japan has controlled the islands since 1895, but China questions Japan's right.

  • The conflict escalated in 2012 when Japan purchased three of the disputed islands, leading to protests in China.

• Shinzo Abe's foreign and security policy

  • Abe advocated for a proactive pacifism and wanted to revise Article 9 to allow Japan to maintain regular armed forces.

  • He supported the alliance with the US and aimed to play a major role in regional security.

• Japan's efforts to establish a cordon sanitaire against China

  • Abe warned about China's attempts to control the South China Sea and promoted the concept of a democratic security diamond.

  • Japan has built closer relationships with the Philippines and India to counter China's influence.

  • Japan has been training the Philippines' coast guard and donated military equipment.

  • India has become another political-military partner of Japan.

Page 10: Japan's Military Strengthening

• Japan needs to strengthen its own capabilities in the current situation.

  • The government believes Japan should re-establish its armed forces.

  • There is a suggestion to amend the Constitution and remove self-restrictions.

• The Abe administration aims to modernize the military and develop new capabilities.

• Full militarization of Japan is difficult due to historical reasons and internal factors.

  • Mention of militarization provokes negative reactions due to World War Two crimes.

  • Public debt is over 230% of GDP, which limits the desire for huge military development.

• The Japanese defense budget fluctuates around 0.9% of GDP, below the informal limit of 1% set in 1967.

• The Abe administration does not plan for rapid militarization or drastic increase in the defense budget.

• Majority of the Japanese population is ready for a change and no longer perceives themselves as wrongdoers.

• In 2014, the Japanese government approved a re-interpretation allowing for more powers to the JSDF.

  • Japan can now exercise the right of 'collective self-defense' and engage in military action to protect allies.

  • Occupation of enemy territory is not permissible.

Page 12: Cross Strait Political and Military Relations

Historical Background of Taiwan

• Taiwan has a historical dimension, with influences from various countries.

  • Portuguese sailors named it "Ilha Formosa" in 1544.

  • Dutch and Spanish merchants established settlements in the 17th century.

  • Taiwan surrendered to Qing dynasty rule in 1683.

  • Chinese immigration to Taiwan increased from 1811 onwards.

  • Taiwan was invaded by Japan in 1874 and later by France in 1884.

• Taiwan was lost by China and ceded to Japan in 1899.

• The Republic of China (ROC) government retreated to Taiwan in 1949 after losing the Chinese Civil War to the communists.

• Taiwan remained under martial law until the late 1980s.

• Transition towards democracy began after Chiang Kai-shek's death in 1975.

• The first direct presidential election was held in Taiwan in 1996.

Military Tensions and Diplomatic War

• There have been military tensions and diplomatic conflicts between Taiwan and mainland China.

• The third Taiwan Strait Crisis involved missile tests by the People's Republic of China (PRC) to signal a shift away from the one China policy.

• The United States deployed two aircraft carrier battle groups to the Taiwan Strait in response.

• Various policies and actions have contributed to the tensions, such as the pro-independence policy of DPP Chen Shui-Bian and lifting the ban on direct trade with the PRC.

• The PRC has implemented policies of no contact and military pressure, including the anti-secession law.

• The "four noes" policy of Taiwan includes no use of military force against Taiwan, no independence, no change from the Republic of China to the Republic of Taiwan, and no promotion of referendum on unification/independence.

Rapprochement Movement

• The KMT's Ma Ying-Jeou presidency marked the beginning of a rapprochement movement.

• Meetings between leaders of Taiwan and mainland China, such as Hu Jintao and ROC vice president Vincent Siew, took place.

• There was a joint acceptance of the 1992 consensus.

• PRC president Xi Jinping adopted the one country two systems policy in 2014.

• Currently, both the PRC and ROC consider themselves the legitimate government of China.

• The UN and many countries recognized the ROC as the sole legitimate government of China until 1979.

• Taiwan is considered a rebel province by the PRC.

• President Lee Teng-hui defined the relation as special states to state relations in 1999.

• President Chen Shui-bian declared that each side is a country in 2003, but did not proclaim independence.

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• Taiwan is viewed as a separate country from China by some.

  • The KMT accepts China's principal as the Republic of China explanation.

  • The PRC strongly opposes treating the ROC as a legitimate country and claims there is only one China.

  • States establishing diplomatic relations with the PRC must end relations with the ROC.

• The ROC does not dispute that the PRC controls mainland China.

• In 2008, Hu Jintao met with the chairman of KMT, Wo Poh-hsiung, and called for resuming exchange and talk.

• "Panda diplomacy" in 2008 resulted in Tiso receiving two giant pandas.

• There are two coalitions in Taiwan: Pan-Blue Coalition and Pan-Green Coalition.

• Ma Ying-jeou departed from the policy of the two previous presidents and defined the relationship between Taiwan and China as a special relationship between two areas with one state.

• The 1992 consensus is a political term referring to a meeting between the PRC and the ROC in Taiwan.

• Both sides recognize there is only one China, but interpret the meaning of that one China differently.

• The PRC refers to the ROC government as Taiwan authorities and does not accept or stamp ROC passports.

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• The PRC adopted the anti-secession law, allowing non-peaceful means in the event of Taiwan declaring independence.

• There is a belief that Taiwan's independent sentiment is growing, with a new Taiwanese identity emerging.

• Thai-Ing-Wen from the DPP believes that ROC is already an independent state, making a formal declaration of independence unnecessary.

• In 2020, Taiwan vowed to strengthen defense against cyber warfare and unrestricted warfare.

• The PRC has a confrontational policy towards Japan and the Philippines.

• Beijing may use limited violence or blockade to pressure Taiwan, or even invade the island.

• Circumstances under which the PRC could use military force against Taiwan include a formal declaration of independence, moves toward independence, internal unrest, Taiwan acquiring nuclear weapons, delays in cross-strait dialogue, foreign intervention, and foreign troops stationed in Taiwan.

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• Taiwan cannot solely rely on its own national capabilities for defense and security due to unfavorable geographical and demographic determinants.

• Taiwan must search for a strategic partner or protector, with the United States being an important element of its defense doctrine.

• The US has the economic and military potential to play the role of protector, but it is not automatically obligated to join a war to assist Taiwan.

• President Ma Ying-Jeou ruled out US deployment to help Taiwan but stated that Taipei will continue acquiring weapons from the US.

• In 2016, Donald Trump sold additional weapons to Taiwan and referred to its president on Twitter.

Page 16: Historical Dimension of the Korean Peninsula Crisis

• Japanese colonization of the Korean peninsula until 1945

• USA and Soviet Union split the Korean Peninsula in half

• Line demarcating the U.S. and Soviet occupation zones drawn at the 38th parallel

• Cold War prevented cooperation on elections for a leader of the entire peninsula

• Syngman Rhee entrusted with the southern half by the United States

• Kim Il-sung granted authority over the northern region by the Soviet Union

• Both factions asserted themselves as the rightful government

Page 16: The Korean War (1950)

• Kim Il-sung initiated the Korean War to consolidate control over Korea

• United States military used a greater volume of napalm in urban areas in Korea than in Vietnam

• Extensive bombing campaigns led to the destruction of Pyongyang and a decrease in North Korea's population

• Armistice signed in 1953, establishing the demilitarized zone (DMZ)

• Separation of families on opposite sides of the border

Page 16-17: Post-War Period 1953-1970s

• North Korea considered a successful state during this period

• Kim Il-sung remodeled North Korean society along the lines of Juche ideology

• State seized control of all private property and organizations

• Cult of personality built around Kim Il-sung

• Songbun system created to divide social classes based on loyalty to socialism and the regime

• Three broad classes: Core, Wavering, Hostile

• Freedom of speech became a grave offense

• Stagnation in the 1970s due to decline in trade and aid from the Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc

Page 18: Collapse of the Economy

• Severe economic collapse under Kim Jong-il's rule

• "Military first" policy favored the elites

• Devastating famine in the 1990s claimed approximately one million lives

• Generation of North Koreans with stunted growth due to malnutrition

• Social changes as people sought alternatives and became less reliant on the regime

• Rise of illegal markets and bottom-up marketization

• Increase in refugees fleeing to China

• Kim Jong-il dies in 2011, Kim Jong-un takes over as leader

Page 18: Nowadays

• Kim Jong-un takes over as leader in 2011

• Consolidation of power through purges and promotions

• Crackdown on illegal border crossings and restricted inflow of foreign media

• Cautious steps toward economic liberalization

• South Korea supported the establishment of a democratic republic with Syngman Rhee as the first president

Page 19: South Korea's History and Development

• Political instability and military dictatorship in the aftermath of the Korean War

  • Multiple coups and establishment of military dictatorship under Park Chung Hee in 1961

• Post-war reconstruction and economic growth

  • Rebuilding infrastructure, industries, and economy with international aid

  • Notable economic growth in the late 1960s, setting the stage for industrialization

• Transition to democracy in the late 20th century

  • 1987 June Struggle and constitutional amendments for a more democratic political system

• South Korea as an economic and technological powerhouse on the global stage

  • Advancements in culture, technology, and diplomacy in the 1990s-2010s

Page 20: North Korea's Domestic Policy and Political System

• Political structure of North Korea

  • One-party rule based on the ideology of juche and songun

  • Absolute leadership of the ruling Kim family

• Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) and its policymaking authority

  • Central Committee, Politburo, Control Commission, and Executive Policy Bureau

  • Influence of party agencies like the Organization Guidance Department and Propaganda and Agitation Department

• Songun policy and the significance of the Korean People's Army

  • Prioritization of the military and development of defense capabilities

  • Fourth-largest standing army globally

• Chief of State: Supreme People's Assembly President Choe Ryong Hae

• Head of Government: State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un

• Constitution: Adopted in 1972, last amended in 2023, defines North Korea as a socialist state and dictatorship of people's democracy

Page 21: Key Aspects of North Korea's Domestic Policy and Political System

• Juche ideology as the state ideology of North Korea

  • Emphasizes self-reliance, autonomy, and independence

  • Guides the country's socialist revolution and development of principles and policies

• Centrally planned economy with state control and self-reliance

  • Command economy with production targets and resource allocation determined by the government

  • State ownership of major industries and enterprises

• Economic challenges including international sanctions, lack of infrastructure, and shortage of skilled labor

• Poor human rights record with denial of basic liberties and issues of forced labor and torture

• North Korea's nuclear threat and international response

  • Building up of nuclear capabilities and missile tests

  • United States and South Korea issuing warnings and emphasizing consequences of nuclear attack

  • North Korea's stated support for denuclearization

Page 22: North Korea's Nuclear Program and its Impact

• North Korea's reliance on nuclear weapons for national security poses a serious threat to global security.

  • Actions such as missile tests and nuclear weapons development demonstrate North Korea's willingness to turn threats into real opportunities.

  • The widening gap between North Korea's nuclear capabilities and efforts to counter them highlights the need for continued focus and strategic deterrence.

• North Korea's nuclear program has a long history dating back to the 1950s.

  • North Korea sought help from the Soviet Union and China in developing nuclear weapons.

  • In 1980, North Korea built a reactor capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium.

  • The program has since advanced, leading to the development of nuclear facilities and power generation.

• Despite negotiations, North Korea's nuclear and missile programs have raised tensions and global security concerns.

  • North Korea's withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003 and subsequent nuclear tests have escalated international concerns.

• North Korea's nuclear program has had serious impacts on the region.

  • Security concerns: Raised concerns about regional security and the potential for nuclear conflict.

  • Regional instability: Has the potential to destabilize the Korean Peninsula and neighboring regions.

  • Diplomatic challenges: Complicates diplomatic efforts to address other security issues and promote regional stability.

  • Economic impact: Diverted resources from other sectors, widening the gap between nuclear capabilities and economic needs.

Page 23: Korean Reunification

• Korean reunification refers to the potential unification of North Korea and South Korea into a single Korean sovereign state.

• The process towards reunification has been reaffirmed by the October 4th Declaration in 2007 and the Panmunjom Declaration in April 2018.

• However, in December 2023, North Korea declared that it will no longer seek reunification and reconciliation with South Korea.

• The desire for unification is waning in South Korea, and significant differences in identities, values, and security preferences present a major obstacle to the process.

• The Panmunjom Declaration aimed to seek international support and cooperation for the denuclearization, prosperity, and reunification of the Korean Peninsula.

• However, in November 2023, North Korea terminated this agreement with South Korea, citing escalating military provocations and plans to deploy military forces along the military demarcation line.

Other Information

• 16.01: Movie about Hong Kong protests

• 23.01: No additional