Derivative hedges: Forward, money, futures, and options markets.
Physical hedges
Money Market Hedge
Set-up (on order date):
Importers: Borrow in domestic, lend in foreign, buy foreign currency in the spot market.
Exporters: Lend in domestic, borrow in foreign, sell foreign currency in the spot market.
Advantages:
Perfect hedge to eliminate FX transaction risk.
Flexibility: can be unwound or rolled-forward easily.
Disadvantages:
Highest cost of physical market hedges.
Need access to domestic and foreign money markets.
Derivatives
Definition: A financial contract whose value is derived from an underlying asset or commodity.
Types:
Futures/Forwards: Obligation to buy/sell at a specified future date.
Options: Right (not obligation) to buy (call) or sell (put) within a specified time.
Swaps: Exchange of cash flows between parties based on predetermined terms (e.g., interest rate/currency swaps).
Contracts for Differences (CFDs): Speculate on price movements without owning the asset, settling the difference between contract opening and closing.
Purposes: Investment, speculation, and managing financial risk (e.g., currency and interest rate risks).
Risks: Market, counterparty, and liquidity risk.
Futures
Definition: Predetermined price, specified future date
Purposes: Hedging and speculating.
Features:
Standardization (size, date, asset).
Margin requirements.
Leverage (amplification of gain/loss).
Mark-to-market (settled daily).
Settlement (physical delivery or cash).
Traditionally in commodity markets: sugar, wheat, coffee, meat, oil, and metals.
Prices affected by:
Uncertainty in supply and availability.
Weather-dependent crop yields.
Demand and scarcity of metals.
Trade in contango, but can shift to backwardation when scarcity/demand is high.
Forward Contract
Definition: OTC agreement between buyer and seller.
Features:
Customization: Meets specific needs (quantity, price, date).
Private Agreement: OTC (no exchange).
Limited Liquidity: Difficult to enter/exit.
FX Rate Structure
Bid: Rate when selling domestic currency and buying foreign currency.
Offer: Rate when buying domestic currency and selling foreign currency.
Spot: Rate for dealing and settling today.
Forward: Rate for dealing today but settling in the future.
pm: Premium of the spot rate over the forward rate (in pips).
ds: Discount of the spot rate to the forward rate (in pips).
$/£: US Dollars (foreign) per UK Pound (domestic).
Rates quoted to 4 decimal places (pips).
Spread: Difference between bid and offer rates.
Calculation:
To calculate forward rates:
deduct premiums (pm) from the spot rate.
add discounts (ds) to the spot rate.
If a UK company wants to buy 100,000settlementtoday:<ul><li>Dealatthespotbidrate(1.5995)</li><li>£’s payable today => 100,000 ÷ 1.5995 = £62,520(tonearest£)</li></ul></li><li>IfaUKcompanywantstosell100,000 settlement in one month:
Deal at the 1 month forward offer rate (1.5815)
£’s receivable in one month => 100,000÷1.5815=£63,231 (to nearest £)
FX Rate Movements
Short term:
Volatile.
Unpredictable.
Long term:
Determined by relative macro-economic growth.
Impacts inflation and interest rates.
£ stronger / =$ weaker
£weaker/=$ stronger
Options
Definition: Financial instrument that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation:
Purpose: To hedge share price risk, foreign exchange risk, and interest rate risk, OR to gain exposure to these markets.
Exercise Price: The price at which the option holder has the right to buy or sell the particular item.
Exercising an Option:
Choice to exercise the option or let it expire.
Option Premium
Definition: The cost of buying an option; needs to be considered when deciding whether to exercise the option.
Example:
Exercise price – 130p
Share price 100p – the option would not be exercised here, as the current share price is less than the exercise price. The option holder loses £1500 in total (just the option premium).
Share price 140p – the option could be exercised, giving a gain of (140-130) = 10p per share. However if we take off the option premium of 30p per share, the option holder makes a loss of (5000 shares*20p) = £1000.
Share price 190p – the option could be exercised. This would give the holder a gain of (190-130) = 60p per share. Take off the premium of 30p per share, to give a gain of 30p per share * 5000 = £1500 overall.