Psc334+1021 (Primaries)

Political Dynamics in Primaries

• Democratic Primaries:

  • Voters, party elites, and contributors are typically liberal.

  • This liberal inclination pushes Democratic candidates toward progressive positions.

• Republican Primaries:

  • Voters, party elites, and contributors are generally conservative.

  • This conservatism drives Republican candidates toward conservative policies.

Voting Patterns in Primaries

• Turnout:

  • Approximately 60% of voters participate in Democratic primaries.

  • About 33% of voters participate in Republican primaries.

Goals of Primary Election Candidates

• Candidates in primary elections have two main objectives:

  1. Become their party's nominee for the general election.

  2. Maintain a strong chance of success in the general election, ensuring the candidate's positions align well with moderate voters.

General Election Landscape

• Voter Demographics:

  • General elections involve a broader electorate that includes more moderate voters, shifting candidates toward political moderation.

  • Moderate Preferences:

    • Preferences among voters often influence candidates to adopt more centrist positions in contrasting with primary elections.

Tasks During General Election Campaigns

• Main Tasks:

  1. Persuasion: Convincing swing voters to support the candidate.

  2. Mobilization: Encouraging partisans and loyal voters to turn out and vote.

Importance of Mobilization over Persuasion

• Since 2000, mobilization of partisans has become increasingly essential compared to persuading independent voters.

• Candidates have shown that winning among partisan voters can outweigh the need for swing voter support.

Campaign Strategies in the Pre-Primary Phase (Jan 2017 – Dec 2019)

• Candidates focus on:

  • Raising substantial funds ().

  • Increasing name recognition.

  • Building a skilled campaign team.

  • Engaging the party's dedicated voter base.

  • Attending significant party events (e.g., Lincoln Day dinners, Jefferson-Jackson dinners).

  • Visiting early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire.

  • Engaging in retail politics to connect with voters directly.

  • Attracting media attention and endorsements.

Momentum in Primaries

• Achieving Momentum:

  • Candidates aim to:

    • Win early elections to build momentum.

    • Exceed expectations to demonstrate viability.

    • Gain delegates to secure a dominant position.

    • Focus on ideological alignment with party base issues.

Historical Context of Contested Primaries (Since 1976)

• Historical outcomes show which nominees won their party's primaries, leading to their eventual nomination. Examples:

  • 1976: Gerald Ford defeated Ronald Reagan.

  • 2008: John McCain triumphed over Mike Huckabee.

• This highlights the tension and competitiveness within party contests leading to the nominations.