Arms Proliferation and Military Spending - Lecture Notes

German Military Spending (Pre-2005)

• Germany had relatively low military expenditure.

  • In 2000, it was $26.50$ Billion, about $1.3\%$ of GDP.

  • Compared to the US: $320.09$ Billion (roughly $3.11\%$ of GDP).

  • France: $28.40$ billion (roughly $2.09\%$).

  • Great Britain: $39.34$ billion (roughly $2.37\%$).

• Following WWII, Germany's military spending decreased massively.

  • In 1943, it was $61\%$ of GDP.

  • In 1960, it was roughly $3.77\%$ of GDP.

• Post-war, Germany entered a period of "complacency and misguided pacifism."

Merkel Era (2005-2021)

• Angela Merkel, leader of the Christian Democrats, became Chancellor in 2005.

  • Emphasized international cooperation.

  • Skeptical about military intervention.

  • Distant from the Bundeswehr (German Army), rarely spoke about security/defense.

  • 2009-2013: Supported Guido Westerwelle's restrained foreign policy.

• 2011: Germany didn't participate in the European-led intervention in Libya, facing criticism but standing by the decision.

• Approved German intervention primarily out of alliance solidarity.

• Merkel backed Germany's NATO commitments and supported the development of a European Defence Union.

• Military spending remained low under Merkel:

  • 2005: $1.07\%$ of GDP.

  • 2010: $1.27\%$.

  • 2020: $1.40\%$.

  • Compared to the UK: $2.43\%$ (2005), $2.58\%$ (2010), $2.25\%$ (2020).

Equipment Problems in German Armed Forces

• Significant discrepancies between stock and operational equipment (selected examples):

  • Eurofighter: 114 (stock) vs 38 (operational).

  • Tornado: 93 (stock) vs 21 (operational).

  • Transall: 50 (stock) vs 22 (operational).

  • NH90: 40 (stock) vs 5 (operational).

  • Tiger: 43 (stock) vs 7 (operational).

  • Sea King: 21 (stock) vs 3-5 (operational).

  • Sea Lynx: 22 (stock) vs 4 (operational).

• Source: Bundestag Armed Forces Commissioner, Annual Report 2016.

Share of Total Military Spending in Europe (2019)

• France: 29\%

• UK: 19\%

• Germany: 18\%

• Italy: 10\%

• Poland: 4\%

• Denmark: 2\%

• Rest of Europe: 18\%

• Source: SIPRI.

German Voter Priorities (August 2017)

• Very Important:

  • Equal educational opportunities: 75\%

  • Preventing poverty among the elderly: 70\%

  • Fighting crime and terrorism: 69\%

• Unimportant:

  • Limiting immigration: 29\%

  • Spending more on defense: 9\%

• Source: Emnid.

The Merkel Doctrine (Ertüchtigungsinitiative)

• Also called the "Enable and Enhance Initiative."

• Aimed to train and equip "trustworthy" partners in global trouble spots for regional security.

• Focused on logistical support, training, and arms exports.

• Criticized for Germany staying away from the front line while allies do the "dirty work."

Olaf Scholz (2021-Present)

• Social Democratic Party.

• Previously Vice-Chancellor (2018-2021).

• Promised to "Beef up" German military spending.

  • Pledged $112.7$ Billion from the 2022 budget.

  • Aims to reach $2\%$ of GDP spending, in line with NATO demands (signed in 2014).

• Said he would provide Ukraine with military weaponry (reversing previous policy).

Change of Era

• Days after the Ukrainian invasion, Scholz announced an increase in Germany's military spending to over $2\%$ of GDP.

• Aimed to restore weapons to standard after decades following the Cold War.

• Defense minister stated that "security has its price" and Germany must defend its values militarily.

• Allocated 100 billion Euro to the defense budget.

  • Intended for 35 American-made F-35 fighter jets and 60 CH-47F Chinook heavy-lift helicopters.

Unfulfilled Promises

• Germany has been dragging its feet.

• Eastern European countries are now looking elsewhere.

• Much of what was promised was not delivered.

• Paralysis of decision-making undermining European defence in the worst security crisis since WWII.

• German Military said to have enough ammunition for only a few days of full combat.

Reasons for Scholz's Hesitation

• Skepticism from his left-wing Social Democratic Party regarding a pivot on defence policy.

• Potentially trying to keep the door open for renewed diplomatic relations with Russia.

• Remarks from Scholz's national security advisor suggest prioritizing future relations with Russia over supplying weapons to Ukraine.

Arms Proliferation & Military Spending

• Objectives:

  • Describe the extent of arms proliferation, using evidence/examples from different countries.

  • Analyse arguments for increased military spending using evidence/examples from different countries.

Conventional & WMD

• Conventional Weaponry:

  • Battle Tanks, Armoured Combat Vehicles

  • Large-Calibre Artillery Systems, Combat Aircraft,

  • Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles

  • Attack Helicopters, Missile & Missile Launchers,

  • Small arms, Light Weapons and Ammunition.

  • Landmines, Cluster Munitions,

• Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD):

  • Nuclear

  • Radiological

  • Chemical

  • Biological

Nuclear Weapons

• Blast effect: Explosive force of impact

• Thermal radiation: Creates firestorms with temps rising to 1000 degrees C.

• Nuclear Radiation: Immediate pulse of radiation creating radioactive fallout.

• Exposure can cause long-term radiation sickness and disease.

Proliferation During the Cold War

• The destructive nature of nuclear weapons explains why nuclear proliferation has been at the forefront of the international security agenda since 1945.

• Based on the security dilemma.

  • Weapons are acquired for defensive purposes but can be perceived as offensive.

  • Encourages other states to strengthen their military capability, resulting in an arms race.

First Atomic Bomb – Hiroshima and Nagasaki

• Hiroshima: Explosion killed about 80,000 people immediately; tens of thousands more died from radiation exposure.

• Nagasaki: A second bomb killed about 40,000 people.

USA's Atomic Attack on Japan & the Soviet Response

• USA's atomic attack on Japan in 1945 encouraged the Soviet Union to intensify and develop their nuclear weapons, leading to their first nuclear test in 1949.

• Symbolic significance - Political prestige associated with possessing nuclear weapons. The Nuclear Club.

• During the Cold War, all five permanent members of the UN Security Council (the P5)

• The Cold War period is seen as the 'first nuclear age'.

Superpowers & Nuclear Deterrence

• Superpowers built large arsenals of nuclear weapons – In particular there was competition between the United States and the Soviet Union.

• Based on nuclear deterrence - The idea that nuclear 'weapons could be used to prevent an opponent from taking undesirable action' (Walton 2013:198)

• Proliferation during the Cold War was vertical rather horizontal -

• Greatest attention given to restricting the spread of nuclear arms beyond the 'big five'

• This was primarily done through the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) 1968 and extended indefinitely 1995.

USA vs. Soviet Union (1945-90)

• Both sides developed first strike capability - A pre-emptive or surprise attack, therefore getting ones retaliation in first.

• Both sides also acquired significant second strike capability - so they would be able to withstand an enemies attack and still be able to destroy major targets and population centres.

• By the 1960s, both superpowers had invulnerable second strike

  • capability – this ensured that nuclear war would result in Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)

• Nuclear war threatens the extinction of life itself.

Non-Proliferation Efforts

• Non proliferation accelerated in the 1960s following the Cuban Missile Crisis. In 1963, the US, Soviet Union and UK signed a Partial
  Test Ban (PTBT).

• By the late 1970s, the 5 nuclear weapons states all issued negative security assurances about the use of nuclear weapons against non
  nuclear adversaries.

• Both China & USA stated they would not be the first to threaten the
  use of nuclear weapons against non nuclear states.

Treaties & Agreements

• 1967 - Tlateloco Treaty – Nuclear Free Zone in Latin America

• 1970 - Zangger Committee adopted guidelines to apply IAEA safeguards

• 1975 - Nuclear Suppliers Group was formed in response to India's 1974 peaceful nuclear explosion

• 1987 - Missile Technology Control Regime (MCTR) Limit the export of nuclear capable ballistic or cruise
  missiles

Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

• The centrepiece of modern nuclear non proliferation regime.

• Open to sign in 1968 and came into force in 1970

• Almost all states signed the NPT, except India, Pakistan and Israel.

• In contrast, during this period both the USA and Soviet Union built up
  enough nuclear capacity to destroy the world many times over.

• By 2002, the US and Russian nuclear capability accounted for 98\% of all warheads that had been built.

After the Cold War

• Provided a new opportunity for the US and Russia to revisit arms control.

• In 1991, both sides signed a Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I
  ).

• ---

• 1993 – START II was signed. This banned certain categories of weapons (the use of MIRVS on ICBMS)

• Optimism then faded, replaced by a sense of heightened anxiety
  about nuclear proliferation.

Increased Proliferation?

• Established nuclear powers continued to use nuclear strategies.

• The incentives for states to acquire weapons have increased.

• Proliferation is easier, as nuclear weapons and technology are more readily available

• Fears have heightened that nuclear weapons may get into the wrong
  hands

NPT Review Conference (1995)

• Signatories met to review its provisions.

• Decided to extend it indefinitely.

• Today 190 states have signed the NPT and generally regarded as
  success.

• However, it is NOT universal with Israel, India and Pakistan not signing
  it. North Korea did sign, but withdrew in 2003.

• Calls have also been made for all states in the Middle East to agree to
  the NPT, and for North Korea to resign but this has not happened yet.

Efforts Slowed (2000s)

• The US withdrew from Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty in order to pursue ballistic missile defence.

• Russia withdrew from START II.

• Obama cancelled some elements of missile defence, but did continue with others.

• Notably, sea based platforms to defend European allies from Iran.

• SORT - Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty signed in 2002 reduced the two countries stockpiles further.

• New START Treaty in 2010 replaced SORT.

The Nuclear Club (2021 Estimates)

• Approximately global nuclear warhead inventories 13,080 nuclear warheads: >90\% belong to Russia and the United States.

• Approximately, 9,600 warheads are
  in military service, with the rest awaiting dismantlement.

• Russia: 6,255

• United States: 5,550

• China: 350

• France: 290

• United Kingdom: 225

• Pakistan: 165

• India: 156

• Israel: 90

• North Korea: 40-50

Nuclear Deterrence Theory

• Using the threat of retaliation to protect oneself from an attack.

• Nuclear states use the threat of nuclear retaliation to deter other states from attacking them.

• Thomas Schelling (1980) – ‘Leaves something to chance' even if there was a small chance of nuclear conflict, the risk would deter attack.

• Extended Deterrence Theory - The threat of a nuclear response in order to deter an attack on one of its allies.

Iran & North Korea

• In recent years the problem of nuclear proliferation has focused on Iran & North Korea.

• Sanctions & negotiations led to an international agreement to stall, if not eliminate Iran's proliferations effort.

• Iran raised concerns when international inspectors discovered a uranium plant close to Tehran in 2002.

• In 2004, Iranian leaders agreed to suspend nuclear activity, but they resumed shortly after in defiance of the UN in 2005 - Stating that their facilities were purely for producing electricity.

• In the case of North Korea, diplomacy and sanctions failed and in 2017, there was a nuclear standoff between Trump and Kim Jung-un.

Responses to Iran's and North Korea's Nuclear Ambitions

• Western countries responded with sanctions against Iran, but they
  have continued their efforts.

• This did eventually take its toll, with their economy shrinking by 10\%
  and its oil exports fell, whilst they also lost $120$ billion in reserve assets held in foreign banks.

• Significantly, a more moderate leader Hassan Rouhani was elected in
  2013, and in 2015 he struck an agreement with the P5 that allowed
  them to produce uranium for 15 years but only to the extent required
  to fuel nuclear power plants.

North Korea's Nuclear Program

• Despite agreeing to suspend its nuclear activity in 1994, a decade
  later the US offered evidence that North Korea had been operating a
  covert nuclear program – therefore violating the 1994 deal.

• In response, they declared themselves as nuclear weapon state which
  they tested in 2006.

• Talks with China, Japan, Russia, USA and South Korea to abandon its
  program in exchange for economic and energy assistance then fell through and they continued to produce uranium.

• Despite sanctions, they proved less effective with China being North
  Korea's main economic partner.

• By 2017 it was clear that North Korea was making rapid progress in terms of weapons development and the means to deliver them.

Why Build Nuclear Weapons?

• Security/Deterrence - States build nuclear weapons to increase national security against foreign threats.

• Domestic Politics - It may advance domestic and bureaucratic interests.

• Norms – Their beliefs about whether weapons acquisition or restraint is good or bad.

• Leader Psychology - Their belief/desire is that nuclear weapons form part of a nations identity.

• Political Economy - Creates an incentive for proliferation or restraint.

• Strategic Culture - There is a cultural perception that the acquisition/use nuclear weapons is valuable

Key Points on Non-Proliferation

• Non Proliferation efforts address both horizontal and vertical proliferation, and can focus either on disarmament or on limiting the size and the of WMD stockpiles.

• The NPT is seen as a bargain between nuclear weapons states and non nuclear weapons states.

• However, critics complain that the NPT is not universal, is unfair and difficult to monitor and enforce.

• Since the end of the Cold War, the international community have also used to counter proliferation approaches to disrupt the pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Military Spending

• The top 10 military spenders, 2020:

  • United States: $778$ b.

  • China: $252$ b.

  • India: $72.9$ b.

  • Russia: $61.7$ b.

  • United Kingdom: $59.2$ b.

  • Saudi Arabia: $57.5$ b.

  • Germany: $52.8$ b.

  • France: $52.7$ b.

  • Japan: $49.1$ b.

  • South Korea: $45.7$ b.

• 75\% of global military spending accounted for these 10 nations.

Impact of COVID-19 on Global Military Spending

• Global military spending increased by $2.6\%$ in 2020.

• Global gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by $4.4\%$, largely due to the economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic

• Some countries reallocated planned military spending to pandemic response (e.g., Chile, South Korea).

• Others spent less than their initial military budgets (e.g., Brazil, Russia).

• The pandemic did not have a significant impact on global military spending in 2020.

Regional Military Spending: Russia and UK

• Russia:

  • Military expenditure increased by $2.5\%$ in 2020 to reach $61.7$ billion.

  • Russia's actual military spending in 2020 was $6.6 \%$ lower than its initial military budget.

• UK:

  • Military spending was $59.2$ billion in 2020.

  • The UK's military spending was $2.9\%$ higher than in 2019, but $4.2\%$ lower than in 2011.

OPEC Military Spending

• Eight of the nine members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut their military spending in 2020.

• Angola's spending fell by $12\%$, Saudi Arabia's by $10\%$, and Kuwait's by $5.9\%$.

• Non-OPEC oil exporter Bahrain also cut its spending by $9.8\%$.

Defence Priorities

• The international situation is more perilous and more intensely competitive than at any time since the Cold War.

• Increased defence spending is likely due to:

  • Bolstering global influence & symbolic significance.

  • Addressing global security efforts.

  • Competitive advantage in advanced weapons technology.

  • Strategic competition by Russia and China.

• Germany's military expenditure was relatively low pre-2005, e.g., in 2000, it was $1.3\%$ of GDP. Post-WWII, spending decreased from $61\%$ of GDP in 1943. Post-war Germany entered a period of complacency.

• Angela Merkel (2005-2021) emphasized international cooperation but was skeptical about military intervention. Military spending remained low: $1.07\%$ of GDP in 2005, increasing to $1.40\%$ in 2020. There were significant equipment discrepancies in the German Armed Forces, with many items in stock not operational. In 2019, Germany accounted for 18\% of total military spending in Europe.

• The Merkel Doctrine aimed to train and equip partners in global trouble spots. Olaf Scholz (2021-Present) pledged to increase military spending to $2\%$ of GDP and provide Ukraine with weaponry, reversing previous policy. Following the Ukrainian invasion, Germany increased its defense budget and allocated 100 billion Euro. However, promises have been unfulfilled, leading to Eastern European countries looking elsewhere.

• Issues include arms proliferation, conventional weaponry, Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), and nuclear weapons. Nuclear proliferation has been a concern since 1945, influenced by the security dilemma. The USA's atomic attack on Japan led to the Soviet Union developing nuclear weapons, resulting in nuclear deterrence and Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Non-proliferation efforts include treaties like the NPT, but challenges remain with countries like Iran and North Korea.

• Military spending: The top 10 military spenders account for 75\% of global spending. Global military spending increased in 2020 despite a shrinking global GDP due to COVID-19. Factors driving increased spending include bolstering global influence, addressing global security efforts, and strategic competition by Russia and China.