The Court of Public Opinion - Herbert Hoover and the Great Depression

Public opinion is defined as the reflection of what the majority of a group of people think, believe, and want.
It is measured in various ways, including polling by organizations such as:
- Gallup
- Pew Research Center
Public opinion can also be measured by election outcomes.
As Hoover's term neared its end, he was faced with a challenging battle for reelection.

Herbert Hoover’s first year as president began with a strong reputation.
Initial responses to the stock market crash of October 1929 were viewed positively; the New York Times noted:
- “No one in his place could have done more.”
- “Very few of his predecessors could have done as much.”

As the Great Depression deepened, public opinion increasingly turned against Hoover, highlighted by:
- The emergence of Shack “cities” (tent cities) termed “Hoovervilles.”
- Hoover’s failure to provide sufficient government aid contributed to his unpopularity.
Hoover's name became synonymous with poverty during the era:
- Hoovervilles: Shantytowns built by the homeless.
- Hoover blankets: Newspapers used by the homeless to keep warm.
- Hoover flags: Empty pants pockets turned inside out, symbolizing poverty.
By the 1932 election, many Americans blamed Hoover for the crisis due to his inaction rather than attributing the onset of the Great Depression directly to him.

Smoot-Hawley Tariff was signed into law by Hoover in 1930, with the following goals and consequences:
- Aimed to: Support the American economy by raising tariffs on thousands of imports, intending to boost sales of American-made goods.
- Resulted in negative consequences:
- Angered foreign trade partners, leading them to raise tariffs on American exports.
- Shrinking of international trade exacerbated the global depression.
Notable statistics include a decline in American exports post-tariff.
American exports began rebounding in the mid-1930s partly due to the passage of the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act in 1934, which lowered tariffs.

By the time of the 1932 presidential election:
- Hoover’s popularity was at its lowest.
- Unemployment neared 25%, leading to widespread despair as banks and factories closed.
- Hoover’s response to the Bonus Army crisis further deteriorated his standing.
Initial assumptions by Hoover suggested he could easily defeat Democratic candidate Franklin D. Roosevelt; he underestimated the political atmosphere.
- Protests against Hoover were widespread, and media reported his frail appearance during campaigns.
- In contrast, Roosevelt embraced the campaign, recognizing the need for effective new policies, famously noting the frightened expressions of Americans.
The results of the 1932 election were significant:
- Approximately 3 million more voters participated compared to the 1928 election.
- Roosevelt won with nearly 23 million votes (57.4% of the popular vote) to Hoover's 15 million votes (39.6%).
- He carried all but six states, marking a political shift.
Historians view this election as the start of a new Democratic coalition:
- This coalition would include African Americans, ethnic minorities, and organized labor, forming a key voting bloc for future elections.

Hoover left a mixed legacy, characterized by:
- Blame from many Americans for the economic hardships of the Great Depression.
- Public opinion criticizes him for not adequately responding to the needs of the affected population.
- Historical commentary from figures like Will Rogers highlighted the absurdity of blaming Hoover for the minutiae of the deprivation.
Modern public opinion polls and historical analyses place Hoover among the bottom ranks of U.S. presidents based on perceived success.
His presidency, marked by mixed achievements, was overshadowed by the depth of the economic crisis and Roosevelt's subsequent successes.
Hoover was perceived as a product of his time, elected under the belief that he would maintain policies of “normalcy” contributing to economic prosperity, yet struggled to adapt to the realities of an economic downturn. His insistence on limited government intervention without direct relief contributed to his failures during the Depression.