Study Notes on the 2020 Presidential Election

The lecture covers the 2020 presidential election and relates it to prior discussions about elections and voting.
Details about the ongoing counting of late mail-in ballots especially from military overseas are highlighted.
The processing timelines for ballots vary from state to state, with different deadlines for receiving and counting votes.

Joe Biden (Democrat): 81,283,000 votes
Donald Trump (Republican): 74,221,000 votes
Margin of Victory: Approximately 7 million votes
Note on historical context: Biden's margin is not the largest; the largest was 17,995,000 votes achieved by Richard Nixon in 1972.
Nixon's 1972 Electoral Vote: 520 out of 538, with his presidency later marred by the Watergate scandal.

2016 Election Results:
- Hillary Clinton (Democrat): 65,853,000 votes
- Donald Trump (Republican): 62,984,000 votes
Both Biden and Trump received more votes than Clinton and Trump had in 2016.
Biden’s Popular Vote Percentage: 51.3%
Trump’s Popular Vote Percentage: 46.9%
2016 Percentages: Clinton - 48.2%, Trump - 46.1%
Note: Percentages do not equal 100% due to third-party candidates.

Joe Biden: Won 26 states including D.C. (technically 25 states + D.C.)
Donald Trump: Won 25 states
Comparison to 2016: Clinton won 21 states, Trump won 30 states.
Biden flipped five states.
- Key states Biden won back from Trump: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.

Electoral Vote Distribution:
- Joe Biden: 306 electoral votes
- Donald Trump: 232 electoral votes
In 2016: Clinton won 232, Trump won 306.
48 out of 50 states follow winner-take-all rule for electoral votes; Maine and Nebraska use a Congressional District plan.
Significance of faithless electors: Trump had some in 2016; Biden in 2020 had the full electoral votes.

Biden won by 10,457 votes (0.4% of the state's popular vote).
- Hispanic vote played a pivotal role in Arizona.
- Late Senator John McCain's legacy impacted voting behavior in Arizona.

Biden won by 11,779 votes (0.2% of the state’s popular vote).
- African American voter turnout significantly influenced the outcome, including an effect from Stacey Abrams mobilization.

Exit polls are more reliable than tracking polls as they ask voters post-election.
15,000 respondents in ABC News exit poll.
Key demographic trends:
- Gender: 53% male Republican support, 57% female Democratic support.
- Race:
- Whites: 58% Republican, 41% Democrat
- African Americans: 87% Democrat, 12% Republican
- Hispanics: 65% Democrat, 32% Republican
- Asian Americans: 61% Democrat, 34% Republican.
- Age Groups:
- 18-29 years: 60% Democrat
- 30-44 years: 52% Democrat
- 45-64 years: 50% Republican
- 65 years and older: 52% Republican.
- Education: College graduates leaned Democrat (55% vs. 43%), while non-graduates leaned Republican (50% vs. 48%).
- Income:
- Under $100,000: 56% Democrat
- Over $100,000: 54% Republican.

Protestants: 59% Republican
Catholics: 52% Democrat
- Note: Joe Biden is the second Catholic president-elect in U.S. history.

First-time voters: Democrats won 64% to Republicans' 32%.
Differences in voting dynamics across urban, suburban, and rural areas.
- Urban areas predominantly voted Democrat while rural areas leaned Republican.

Nationwide turnout was approximately 66.5%, the highest since 1900.
Texas voter turnout increased by 9% from 2016, reaching 52.4%.
- Despite increases, Texas remains one of the lowest nationwide.

Only 37 out of 1100 counties flipped between 2016 and 2020.
- Many Democrats increased turnout rather than flipping counties; Biden had greater turnout in his base.

Increasing tribalism in politics observed; party loyalty over personal analysis of candidates.
Difficulty in merger of independent voters for one party.

The 2020 election was characterized by increased turnout and demographic shifts.
Analysis highlights the need for political engagement beyond mere party lines to address national issues effectively.