Public Opinion

Public opinion:

a collection of popular views about something, perhaps a person, a local or national event, or a new idea.

• Usually perceived as the whole public having one view and one opinion about something

“Public opinion says X”

• Monitoring what the public has to say is important in a representative democracy

• Public opinion can come from:

Beliefs or Values:

Attitudes:

deeply-held ideas about what is Preferences that develop when your values interact with the world

Elite Cue Taking:

is when the public adopts the talking points, positions, and point of view of the elites
Political elites are the political decision makers; party officials, congresspeople, the president…
People can also be influenced by other elites, such as the media elites: pundits such as Tucker Carlson or Joe Rogan
Many times, it also depends on the partisanship and the ideology of the people and the elite
Exp: Democratic and liberal voters are more likely to accept elite cues from MSNBC

Measuring Public Opinion:

We measure public opinion using polls or surveys, which are a single measurement of public opinion at a given time
Surveyors usually pick a sample: a portion from the whole population that is supposed to be representative, and ask them questions
Statistical errors are possible –polls can be inaccurate

Types of Polling:

Random Digit Dialing:

Internet Poll:

Dial random phone Recruit volunteers on the internet to participate, but try to find a representative sample

“Convenience Poll”

A survey by a website or organization that does not try to find a representative sample

Exit Poll

Most popular presidents in the modern era: Eisenhower, Kennedy, and George H.W. Bush

The least popular: Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Effects on Presidential Approval Ratings:

Partisanship plays a role in the approval ratings of presidents
Republicans like Republican presidents more, and Democrats like Democratic presidents more
Political polarization between the parties is clearly shown here – the gap has widened with time
Eisenhower (R) and Kennedy (D) were the most popular among supporters of the opposite party with an average of 49%

Political and public events and important moments play a role in the approval ratings of presidents
They can either unite people and boost the presidents’ approval ratings, or then they can sink the ratings – depending on the severity and type of the event
Example: the Watergate Scandal In 1972, it was discovered that the administration of Nixon was involved in breaking into the DNC headquarters in DC and planting listening devices during the reelection campaign
After a long period of investigations and hearings, Nixon resigned in 1974

What caused the spike in George W. Bush’s approval ratings?

• The “Rally Around the Flag Effect”

Joe Biden’s Approval Rating:

Biden’s approval ratings were mostly stable with more people disapproving of his job performance than approving
Mostly a low-key president.
His support of genocide if Gaza, his old image, and moderate stances also affected his approval

Trump Vs. Biden:

Biden’s average rating: 42%
Biden started as a way more popular president than Trump Possible reasons: (1) “reuniting” the country after Trump’s first presidency, (2) return to calm, (3) Trump’s disastrous way of dealing with COVID
Biden also finished his term with a higher rating than when Trump finished his first term
Political polarization plays a role here

Congress always had a low approval rating on average from the public
The higher numbers are under the category of placing a “fair amount” and “not very much” trust in Congress

The Supreme Court’s approval ratings have mostly been higher than Congress’s
During Trump’s first term the Supreme Court seemed more stable compared to the chaos in the executive and legislative branches
The change in 2021-2022 probably came from conservative rulings like the overturn of Roe V. Wade
People also trust the Supreme Court more – because they seem to be above politics