Congressional Elections

Congressional Elections

Outcomes

  • Congressional election outcomes are largely shaped by two forces:

    • Incumbency and the advantages it brings

    • Party and partisanship

Incumbency Advantage

  • Recent elections have shown dramatic shifts indicating party swings:

    • 2006: Democrats gained +31 seats in the House and +6 in the Senate, regaining control.

    • 2010: Republicans gained +61 House seats and +6 Senate seats, regaining control of the House.

    • Notably, there were 87 Republican House freshmen in the 112th Congress.

    • 2014: Republicans gained +13 in the House and +9 in the Senate, taking control of the Senate.

    • 2018: Democrats gained +41 in the House, regaining control.

    • 2020: Democrats lost -13 in the House (despite Joe Biden's presidential win) but gained +3 in the Senate, taking control with Vice President Kamala Harris' tie-breaking vote (50-50).

    • 2022: Republicans gained +9 in the House to regain control but lost -1 in the Senate (Democrats retained control).

    • 2024: Republicans projected to gain +4 in the Senate and take control.

Incumbency Advantage Rates

  • Reelection rates of congressional incumbents (1946-2024) show high consistency:

    • A bar graph would illustrate data representing the percentage of incumbents who ran and were reelected from 1946 to 2024.

    • General trend from 1946 onwards shows a high percentage (80-100%) of incumbents successfully reelected.

Dynamics of the Incumbency Advantage

  • Most electoral change occurs in "open seats", vacated by members due to various reasons (e.g., death, retirement, resignation).

  • Incumbents have low defeat rates due to various factors, including:

    • Sophomore Surge: The difference in the proportion of votes won when first elected versus in their first reelection campaign.

    • Retirement Slump: The drop in vote percentage for a successor compared to the retiring incumbent's last election.

  • These two phenomena are collectively termed the “slurge” — previously worth around 8 percentage points until 2000, now worth about 2-3 points due to increased party importance.

Name Recognition

  • Incumbents win due to factors like:

    • Greater name recognition:

    • Approximately 40% of voters recall an incumbent's name compared to 15% for challengers, and 90% recognize it versus 60% for challengers.

    • Recognition stems from their time in office, media attention, and direct communication with constituents.

    • Even negative recognition can be beneficial, as incumbents often manage the narrative positively.

    • Job approval ratings reflect this: Congress often has low approval rates (~13%), while individual House members average ~50%.

Financial Advantages

  • Money plays a critical role in incumbency advantage.

    • Incumbents typically have more financial resources and spend more than challengers.

    • Funds are used for various campaign activities: advertising, expertise, mailings, etc.

    • Most top-funded candidates are incumbents; exceptions occur in open seats.

    • In the Senate, funding is influenced by candidate wealth and state size.

Sources of Funding

  1. Individuals

    • Comprise 60-70% of funding for incumbents.

    • Individual contributions are generally ideology-driven, with limits of $3,300 per candidate per election (as of 2024, indexed).

  2. Parties (National, State, Local)

    • Contribute around 1-2% of campaign funding.

    • Committee contributions aimed at maximizing seat count for party majority.

    • Key committees:

      • Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC)

      • National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC)

      • Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC)

      • National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)

  3. Political Action Committees (PACs)

    • Provide approximately $5,000 per candidate, per election, making up 40-50% of funding.

    • PACs contribute to perceived winners, looking for access rather than influencing election outcomes.

    • About 86% of PAC money in 2020 House races went to incumbents.

Redistricting

  • Redistricting is advantageous for House incumbents.

    • Every ten years, after the census, district lines are redrawn to ensure equal population sizes.

    • Legislative districts must remain contained within one state, and drawn by state legislatures as legislation (some states have bipartisan commissions).

Constraints in Redistricting

  • District lines should be contiguous and compact, avoiding favoring racial groups and respecting “communities of interest”.

    • 1982 amendments to the Voting Rights Act led to the creation of majority-minority districts.

The Case of NC-12

  • NC-12 is a significant example of gerrymandering, known as the “snake” district, drawn to favor particular political interests.

  • Supreme Court cases (Shaw v. Reno, Shaw v. Hunt) rule against racial gerrymandering yet the practice persists.

  • Partisan gerrymandering exemplified by changes in district maps post-2010 elections, showing Republican efforts to secure legislative control.

  • Efforts to challenge partisan gerrymandering have met resistance, although some state courts have intervened to redraw maps.

Perks of Office

  • Members of Congress enjoy office-related advantages, including:

    • Staff allocation (50% in D.C., 50% in district) for engaging in casework for constituents:

    • Helping with federal issues (Social Security, IRS, visas, etc.).

    • “Pork barrel” spending for district-specific federal appropriations, two types:

    • General spending facilitating executive decision processes.

    • Earmarks specifying recipients in legislation.

Communication and Constituency Engagement

  • Members can send free mail to constituents (franking privilege) promoting their work and explaining their positions.

    • Office budgets support regular travel back to districts, aided by congressional schedules with long weekends and recesses.

Challenges for Challengers

  • The incumbent advantage discourages quality challengers, often limiting participants to those willing to accept high opportunity costs.

    • Quality candidates tend to wait for open seats or weak incumbents, particularly in midterm years when the president’s party holds the White House.

    • Less than 20% of House challengers have prior elected office experience, leading to many campaigns that may be quixotic or expressive in nature.

Unique Aspects of Senate Elections

  • Senate incumbents face greater threats compared to House members, for reasons including:

    • Challengers often have more experience and recognition due to the prestige and fewer overall Senate seats (100).

    • States are more diverse than districts, making it more complex to satisfy constituent interests and maintain party alignment.

Party Effects Overview

  • Elections serve as evaluations not only on individual performance but on party performance.

    • Trends indicate that incumbency advantage may wane; voters are more focused on party performance, presidential approval, and congressional majority actions.

Mechanisms of Party Influence

  1. Presidential Coattails

    • Winners of the presidency can pull fellow party candidates into office through their influence.

    • Historical evidence from elections indicates varied effectiveness over time.

Presidential Coattails Data

  • Presidential Coattails from 1952-2024:

    • A graph would show the number of seats won by the president's party across elections.

  • Eventual attenuation of coattail effects noted, with Obama and other presidents showing moderate coattails.

  1. Midterm Effects

    • The president’s party typically loses seats in midterms as initial support declines post-honeymoon phase.

Midterm Losses Data

  • Data on presidential party midterm losses in the House (1946-2022)

    • A graph representing fluctuating losses by the president's party across several midterm elections.

Historical Context of Party Importance

  • Party plays a significant role in shaping electoral outcomes due to candidate funding, leadership organization, and rising political polarization.

  • Political campaigns have increasingly emphasized party platforms and commitments over individual candidate attributes.

Party & Incumbency Effects Overview

  • The significance of party and incumbency:

    • In recent elections, around 75% of voters typically vote along party lines.

    • Of the remaining voters, 12% of voters defect to the incumbent’s party, demonstrating a shift focusing on party affiliation over individual traits.

Defection Trends

  • Percentage of Party Defection 1956-2018: A graph illustrating the rates at which voters have defected to either incumbents or challengers over time.