L1- Overconsumption

The Anthropocene

• the idea that human activities are pushing the Earth system beyond the range of natural variation (that was observed in the Holocene- operating outside the ‘safe operating space of humanity’)

• the Earth System→ all components of the Earth interacting with each other in a non-linear, complex way

  

• humans are a global geophysical force in this system→ are pushing it in a way it wouldn’t go without us

• the term has cultural significance→ an informal term for human impacts on the planet

Temperature

• pre industrial revolution→ general warming trend, cooling periods, no more than 0.5 degree increase

• post industrial revolution→ more than 1 degree increase in last 100 years, last year average temperature was 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial baseline

  

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

• graph shows an entire Ice Age cycle- variation throughout the Holocene, 20,000ya was peak ice, high during last interglacial

• current- rapid increase, now at 420ppm CO2, same trends for methane and nitrous oxide

  

• breakdown of where CO2 is coming from→ during the last century, the main increase in GGH emissions is from fossil fuels and industry, uptick after WW2

  

Human impacts predate modern human species:

1. ancient fire and hunting→ mass extinctions

2. origin and spread of agriculture→ land-use

3. european colonisation→ resource consumption, way labour is used

4. industrial revolution→ increased fossil fuel use

5. great acceleration→ since 1950, global economic system

Why does this history matter?

• attribution→ what caused this?

• mitigation→ what is needed to address the problems?

• responsibility→ who should lead the mitigations?

British Industrial Revolution-

• started in 1800, Sheffield was the heart of the IR

• was at the same time as:

  • machines replacing labour

  • transitioning from agriculture to machine economies

  • urbanisation

  • improved sanitation/healthcare→ population growth

• historical emissions were dominated by US and EU but are now dominated by China:

  

  • US and EU were the first emitters in the 19th-20th century, other countries have followed, China has huge emissions now

  • US was a big burner of oil during the 20th century, followed by the EU and more recently China

Post-industrial development:

• transition to a service-based economy in rich countries:

  

  • decline in agriculture as machines appeared, increase in manufacturing during the IR, rapid decline, expansion in services

  • same can be seen in share of GDP (economy)

  • LINK TO BLOG POST

  • has led to reductions in CO2 emissions in the UK:

    

• mitigation policies:

  • decarbonising the UK grid:

    • less than 1/3 of electricity was generated by fossil fuels in the last 12 months

      

    • target by 2030, is happening quickly

    • last UK coal power station closed in 09/24

      • most are built in China/India now

• CO2 emissions per person per country show that even though UK emissions have halved, they are still 2x India, and India are starting to increase like an IR

  

• geopolitics→ COP26 pledge to quit coal, India and China have slowed down in their target, India having their own IR

• understanding the historical context allows us to understand the present situation

  • historical contribution of CO2 emissions→ most of all emissions comes from early industrialising nations (NA, Europe, Japan, Australia= 66%)

  

  → is important as all GHG in the atmosphere determines warming

The Great Acceleration:

• all factors are increasing in the same way since 1950 and are linked together e.g. McDonalds growing in same pattern shows a globalised economy

• after ww2 by today’s wealthy countries

• rapid economic growth

  • cheap fossil fuels

  • natural resources

  • global expansion of farmland

• analogy between capitalism and the Anthropocene:

  

  • size of country’s economy (GDP) correlates with the amount of CO2 it emits (energy consumption)

    

  • there are huge inequalities within and between countries in terms of wealth and CO2

    • 46% of wealth controlled by the richest 0.7%

    • 97% of wealth controlled by the richest 30% (>$10,000 household wealth- 92% of British households)

    • wealthiest 1% have the same CO2 emissions as the poorest 66%

    • more CO2 emitted in 4 days by one person in the US than by a person in the whole year in poorer countries

  • urbanisation is important in this:

    • > industrialisation = > urbanisation = > economic productivity = > energy/resource consumption

    • there is a relationship between wealth and urbanisation:

      

    • urbanisation is more recent for most countries and is associated with IR

      

    • urbanisation is predicted to increase:

      

Global Trade:

• huge increase since WW2 (260x more flow of goods)

• as production shifts around the world, environmental damage shifts too (from global North to China/ global South)

• unequal distribution of wealth causes power imbalances→ parallels with colonial power relations- could be neocolonialism

• environmental damage embodied in international trade→

  • models add up ED caused by production/supply chains for every product

  • is used to measure Scope 3 emissions

    • Scope 1→ direct emissions e.g. boiler

    • Scope 2→ electricity e.g. a grid

    • Scope 3→ embodied in goods

  • large amount of ED is embodied in goods in trade when looking at all products worldwide

  • shifting production to less developed countries increases overall ED as they usually have more intense manufacturing

• Some environmental impacts embodied in IT:

  

• complexity of global supply chains makes it hard to mitigate the ED from manufacturing e.g. palm oil

  • is hard for consumers to do much

  • mitigation needs to be by governments of production, certification of palm oil, pressure groups

• Importers of embodied CO2 from trade→ US, Europe, Brazil, Canada, Mexico

• Exporters of embodied CO2 from trade → China, India, Russia, SA (LIC)

  

• How does exportation work e.g. China:

  • is a net exporter→ high embodied emissions, are larger than Japan/Germany, coal-based energy, but emissions are in particular provinces

    → regulation on particular areas can be effective

  • had a peak in 2008, fell since the global financial crisis, possible carbon leakage by moving exportations to LIC countries

  • China’s Belt and Road Initiative-

    • investment by Chinese government in infrastructure in other countries with associated economic connections

    • mainly across Eurasia and Africa, revived ancient Silk Road trade routes

      

    • roads, railways, telecoms, ports, energy pipelines

    • now lots of manufacturing has moved to BRI nations-

      • half of global CO2 emissions come from BRI nations

      • most of the CO2 increase in the last 20 years have been associated with this initiative

      • carbon leakage

Summary:

• Industrial and consumption-based CO₂ emissions have pushed the Earth System outside its natural Holocene range of variation.

• CO₂ emissions arise primarily from consumption by globally wealthy, industrialised urban populations (in cities across the world).

• The primary cause of CO₂ emissions is consumption of energy and goods by wealthy, urban societies.

• Cumulative CO₂ emissions have arisen predominantly from early-industrialising western countries, especially the USA and in Europe. In the 21^st century, emissions are shifting to Asia, centred on China.

• Export accounts for a significant fraction of Chinese emissions. However, consumption by industrialised urban populations across Asia and the Global South are becoming increasingly important.