General Election and Electoral College Notes

Primary vs. General Election Strategies

  • Primary Election:
    • Goal: Convince party members (e.g., Republicans) that you are the best candidate.
    • Strategy: Win over a dozen or two opponents within your own party.
    • Process: State-by-state over six months.
    • Delegate Allocation: Can be winner-take-all or proportional.
  • General Election:
    • Goal: Win against a candidate from the opposing party (e.g., Republican vs. Democrat).
    • Strategy: Different from primaries due to the Electoral College.
    • Timing: Elections held on a single day, mostly winner-take-all.

Electoral College

  • Focus on Key States:
    • Objective: Secure enough electoral votes, not necessarily the majority of the national popular vote.
    • Strategy: Win a plurality of votes in enough states to reach the required number of electoral college votes.
  • Swing States:
    • Impact: A small number of states can determine the election outcome.
    • Example: In the 2024 election, a few flipped states significantly changed the results.
    • Winning all swing states leads to a comfortable win.
    • Splitting swing states results in a closer election.
  • Examples of State Vote Distribution:
    • Washington State:
      • Overall: While Harris won Washington, a county-level view shows a lot of red (Republican).
      • Key Observation: Large margins in smaller, rural counties (e.g., Ferry County) don't offset the large vote nets in populous counties.
      • Example: King County’s large Democratic vote (e.g., 74% for Harris) offsets Republican wins in other counties.
      • Regional Differences: East of the mountains is more conservative and agricultural compared to the western side.
      • Clark County: A microcosm of the state, with a populated area balancing out a more Republican larger area.
    • Oregon:
      • Overall: Similar to Washington, significant red areas, yet Harris won the state.
      • Rural vs. Urban: Trump wins by large margins in rural counties (e.g., Malheur County), but these votes are offset by Democratic wins in populous counties like Multnomah County.
  • National County Distribution:
    • Republican Dominance: Approximately 3,000 out of 3,300 counties reliably vote Republican.
    • Democratic Influence: About 300 counties are Democratic, including major urban centers like Seattle and New York.
  • Precinct Level Analysis:
    • Granular Data: Election results can be analyzed down to precincts and individual blocks.
    • Marketing Parallels: Marketers have long predicted consumer behavior based on zip codes.

270 to Win

  • Electoral Vote Target: The website "270 to Win" focuses on achieving a majority of 270 electoral college votes.
  • State Categorization:
    • States are classified as safely Democratic, safely Republican, likely, leaning, or tilting.
    • Safely Democratic: States like California and Vermont.
    • Safely Republican: States like Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, and Oklahoma.
    • Tilting: States with a slight majority leaning towards one party but with caveats.
  • Current Projections:
    • Based on current poll numbers, Republicans are projected to win 312 electoral college votes, and Democrats 226.
    • Strategy involves targeting tilting or leaning states to shift them into safer categories.
  • Key States to Watch:
    • Democrats: Focus on historically Democratic states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) that became swing states with Trump.
    • Republicans: Target specific congressional districts (e.g., around Omaha, Nebraska) that Democrats have won.
  • Plausible Scenarios:
    • Democrats regaining Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania is a strong possibility.
    • Republicans winning back the congressional seat around Omaha is also plausible.
  • Tiny Electoral College:
    • If there is a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives decides the election.
  • Swing States:
    • Many states in the middle are swing states.

Fundraising in General Elections

  • Easier Fundraising: After securing the party nomination, fundraising becomes easier.
  • Expenditures:
    • Example: In a recent presidential race, the Democratic Party spent over a billion dollars, with outside organizations spending an additional 843 million dollars.
    • The Republican candidate spent close to half a billion dollars, with almost a billion dollars from outside sources.
  • Logarithmic Scale: Election spending follows a logarithmic or J-curve, with exponential increases.
  • High-Value Fundraisers: Nominees can attend high-value fundraisers instead of smaller, local events.

Opposition Research

  • Focused Research: Concentrated on the opposing candidate.
  • Tracking:
    • Continuous monitoring of the opponent's activities.
    • Aim: Capture compromising footage or statements for use in campaigns.
    • Example: Filming Biden falling asleep could be used to reinforce the narrative that he is too old.
  • Rapid Response and Damage Control: Swiftly address and mitigate any negative events or statements.

Polling Strategies

  • Tracking Polls: Continuous polling to monitor voter sentiment.
    • Aimed to identify patterns that are stable through time.
  • Last-Minute Endorsements: Seek endorsements from influential figures.
  • Advertising:
    • Nationwide advertising with considerations for key states.
    • Focus on differentiating the candidate from the opposition.

Debates

  • Bipartisan Presidential Debate Commission:
    • Role: Decides the number, timing, format, and topics of debates.
    • Criticism: Excludes third-party candidates.
  • Historical Norms:
    • Traditionally, there are four debates (three presidential, one vice presidential) in October.
    • Formats include standard debates, kitchen table conversations, and town hall forums.
  • Negotiations:
    • Everything is negotiated, temperature, podium height, and question format.
  • Debate Preparation:
    • Extensive preparation, including dress rehearsals and mock debates.
    • Use of universities for space and facilities.
  • Priorities During Debates:
    • Challenger: Establish credibility as someone who can lead.
    • Incumbent: Reinforce existing image as a leader.
    • Vice President: Show that they can be a leader.
Expectations Management
*   Lower the bar for your candidate and raise it for the opponent to exceed expectations
  • Dodging and Pivoting:
    • Avoid difficult questions by pivoting to favorable topics.
    • Examples: Shifting from abortion questions to education plans.
  • Post-Debate Spin:
    • Influence media coverage to shape the narrative of who won the debate.
    • Using metaphors such as "knockout blows" and "landed punches".

Election Strategy Components

  • Horse Race Coverage: Media focuses on who's ahead, who's gaining, etc.
  • Voter Turnout:
    • Essential: Mobilize base voters.
    • Target: Increase turnout among new voters, particularly young voters.
    • Social Media: Leverage social media to reach and engage voters.
  • Nudging:
    • Definition: Using behavioral economics and psychology to encourage desired behaviors.
    • Examples:
      • Placing fruit at the front of school cafeteria lines.
      • Automatically enrolling employees in retirement savings plans.
      • Oregon’s pioneering pre-registration for voting.
  • Community Engagement:
    • Encouraging supporters to contact their neighbors, thus making them aware and increasing voter turnout.
  • Utility Bill Comparisons:
    • Providing comparisons with neighborhood averages to influence behavior.

Concerns about the general election's integrity

  • October Surprise: Parties fear last-minute damaging revelations.
  • Dirty Tricks: Efforts to undermine the opposing party, such as:
    • Running candidates with similar names to confuse voters.
    • Encouraging third-party candidates to draw votes away from opponents.
  • Voter ID Laws:
    • Republicans have overt aims of voter ID laws which are aimed at democratic demographics.

Election Day and Official Procedures

  • Election Day:
    • The first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
    • Calls for making Election Day a federal holiday to increase turnout.
    • The Republican Party wants every vote to be cast on that day and does not like other possible ways to cast ballots.
  • Concession and Victory Speeches:
    * Traditional concessions of the loser to the victor, with the offer of assistance to help solve
    the country's problems.
  • Transition:
    • The period from the election to the inauguration dominated by cabinet appointments.
    • Outgoing presidents issue pardons in their last days in office.
  • Certification:
    • By December 12, states must certify election results.
    • The certificate of ascertainment lists electors and vote counts.
  • Electoral College Vote Count:
    • Electors meet in state capitals.
    • On January 6, Congress counts Electoral College votes, presided over by the Vice President.
  • Inauguration:
    • January 20, unless it falls on a Sunday, then January 19. The new president is inaugurated into office.