Energy Security Notes

C12 - Explain how states ensure energy security, using evidence/examples from different countries.
C15 - Explain roles of organizations and agencies in ensuring energy supplies are protected using evidence/examples from different countries.

Energy security: 'is the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price'.
Energy insecurity: 'is the loss of welfare that may occur as a result of a change in the price or availability of energy'.

Energy is essential for cooking, heating, cooling, transportation, and electricity for lighting and appliances.
Pre-industrialization: Reliance on human/animal-powered transport and firewood.
Industrialization: Shift to coal-powered technologies.
Later developments: Inclusion of petroleum (transport) and natural gas (post-WWII).
Current reliance: Fossil fuels account for over 80% of global energy needs.

Fossil Fuels: Dominate global energy (81% in 2021) and are major GHG emission contributors.
Renewable Sources: Account for approximately 11% of global primary energy (hydropower, wind, solar).
Growth: Renewable energy is the fastest-growing energy source (7% increase in electricity generation in 2020).
Cost: Renewables are now the most cost-effective energy source globally.

A group of 23 oil-exporting countries.
Meets regularly to decide on crude oil output.
Core members: 13 OPEC members (formed in 1960 to control oil supply and prices).
OPEC+ Formation: In 2016, OPEC joined with 10 other oil producers, including Russia.
Production share: These nations produce ~40% of world's crude oil.
Market Balancing: OPEC+ adjusts supply to balance the market, raising prices by lowering supply during demand slumps and vice versa.

Post-Pandemic Meeting: Agreed to cut production by 2 million barrels per day (less than 42 million barrels).
Impact: This cut represents ~2% of global supply and is designed to increase crude oil prices.
Inflation impact: Rising oil prices increase petrol prices, contributing to inflation (e.g., 40-year high in the UK).
US Opposition: The U.S. asked OPEC+ to avoid cuts, partly to reduce revenue for Russia.

Spring 2020 (COVID Lockdowns): Crude oil prices crashed due to reduced demand.
OPEC+ Response: Members slashed production to drive prices back up.
Subsequent Actions: The group slowly increased production as demand grew.
Russia-Ukraine War: Crude prices soared to over $100$ a barrel due to concerns about global sanctions leading to Russian oil shortages.

Post-Invasion: Many countries reduced purchases of Russian oil, leading to a price decrease.
6New Major Buyers: India and China now account for over half of Russia's seaborne oil exports (not joining Western sanctions).
China's Position: Russia is now China's biggest oil supplier, overtaking Saudi Arabia.
EU Embargo: Planned embargo on Russian crude oil from December 5th (tanker shipments and most piped supplies).

Shift: New direction due to President's call for energy revolution, pollution control, and service-based economy transition.
Emphasis: Electricity, natural gas, cleaner, high-efficiency, and digital technologies.
Demand: Rapid economic growth and large population create huge and growing energy demand.
Contradictory approach:
- Investments: Large investments in renewables (world leader in solar PV panels/wind turbines).
- Coal Reliance: Continues heavy investment in coal power generation (57% of energy supply, oil at 20%).
- Dual Investment: High investment in both fossil fuels and renewables.

Transformation: The energy policy landscape has fundamentally changed over the past decade.
Strong Position: The U.S. is in a strong position to deliver a reliable, affordable, and environmentally sustainable energy system.

Shale Revolution: Domestic production could satisfy consumption.
Vulnerabilities: Linked to shifting oil prices.
Ukraine War Impact: US consumers paid more for fuel.
Government Limitations: The US government cannot easily reduce prices by increasing supply due to private ownership of oil companies focused on profit.

Vulnerability: Europe's energy crisis, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and over-reliance on Russian gas, demonstrates how vulnerable fossil fuel-dependent systems are in times of geopolitical instability.

COP26 Pledges: Nations, including the US, pledged to reduce emissions and transition to renewables.
Commitment Gap: Lack of commitment to phasing out oil and gas shows the gap between promises and action.

US Energy Policy Challenges: Shaped by the shale revolution and boosted by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, reflects a shift toward energy independence and clean energy investment, but it still relies heavily on fossil fuels like natural gas. This creates tension with global climate goals, as fracking releases large amounts of methane—a potent greenhouse gas.
Warning: Climate experts warn that current pledges still put the world on track for over $2$ °C of warming—well above the $1.5$ °C goal set by the Paris Agreement.