presidential elections

2020 presidential election in summary:

• stage 1: primaries n caucuses: candidates from the same party compete against each other in a public vote

  • dems: joe biden, pete buttgleg, amy kiobuchar, bernie sanders n elizabeth warren

  • repubs: donald trump - incumbent pres, so no challengers

• stage 2: electoral college: candidates from different parties compete against each other in a gen elec to decide who will become Pres

  • dems: joe biden

  • repubs: donald trump

when do elections happen?

• fixed term > every 4 years

• first held in 1788

• if a Pres. dies in office, vice pres takes over

  • no election

• when jfk was assassinated in 1963, his vp lyndon johnson took over remaining months of the presidency

• election timing is in Article 2 of the constitution » stipulates every 4 years

• federal law: tuesday after the 1st monday in November of every fourth year

• last election held on 3rd nov 2020

constitutional requirements:

• must be:

  • natural-born American citizen

  • at least 35 years old

    • youngest = theodore roosevelt, 42 (stepped up after mckinley’s assassination, 1901)

    • youngest elected - jfk, 43

• 1951 amendment:

  • max 2 consecutive terms

extra constitutional requirements:

• political experience

• major party endorsement

• personal characteristics

• ability to raise large sums of money

• effective organisation

• oratorical skills n being telegenic

• sound n relevant policies

1. political experience:

   • 2 groups have good pools of potential candidates:

     • state governors

     • state senators

   • of 22 candidates for the republican n democratic presidential nominations in 2016:

     • 11 had served as state governor

     • 8 were senators

     • the other 3 - donald trump, ben carson n carly fiorina had no prev political experience

       • trump = 1st elected president w/o political n military experience

   • of the 19 ppl nominated as presidential candidates (1969-2016):

     • 10 had served in the Senate

     • 6 had served as state governors

     • 6 had also previously served as vice pres

   • despite large field of political experience in 2016, none were able to defeat political novice in Trump

2. major party endorsement:

   • serious presidential candidates are members of the 2 major political parties

   • 3rd party cands & did not reach White House:

     • wallace (1968)

     • anderson (1980)

     • perot (1992 n 1996)

     • buchanan (2000)

     • johnson (2016)

3. personal characteristics:

   • tradition: white males

     • 2008 exception: black male (obama) vs white woman (hillary clinton)

     • recruitment pools dominated by men

     • hillary clinton = 1st female presidential candidate for major party in 2016

   • being married is an advantage » james buchanan only bachelor, 1856

     • marital infidelity scandals used to rule out potential candidates, clinton got dem nomination despite gennifer flowers allegations

     • 3/8 last republican candidates have remarried: regan, john mccain, trump

4. ability to raise large sums of money

• crucial for successful bif

• campaigns are expensive

  • only billionaires have been able to finance their own campaigns » ross perot, steve forbes

• candidates must raise money before primaries n caucuses = raising money the year before the election

• eg: hillary clinton raised just over $700m during her 2016 presidential bid

5. effective organisation:

• during candidate selection processes, the major parties can’t endorse specific candidates

• ∴candidates can’t use the party’s organisational structure » nation n state-wide

• must create own organisation =

  • time-consuming

  • expensive

  • demanding

6. oratorical skills n telegenic-ity

• crucial to speak well n look good on tv

• trump’s media mastery was an important factor in his 2016 victory

  • potentially hindered him in 2020

7. sound n relevant policies:

• pres elections can be portrayed as all style n no substance

• candidates will be unearthed if their campaign is ‘policy-free’

• trump = exception

  • had good policies on immigration n jobs but thin on policy detail » repeated “Make America Great Again”