Notes on Limited War and Denial Defense Strategy

Denial Defense Concept

• Definition: Denial defense refers to strategies that prevent an enemy from successfully invading or holding key territory, focusing on defeating the invasion rather than outright destruction of opponent forces.
• Key Goals: Protect key territories (e.g., Taiwan) by preventing enemy forces (such as the People's Liberation Army, PLA) from landing or establishing a foothold.

Strategy of Denial

• Core Purpose: The main purpose of a denial strategy is to thwart an invasion rather than achieve broad defeat of the enemy.
• Limitations of Military Operations: The defenders can limit the scope of their military operations geographically, focusing on immediate threat areas.
• Example: Defending forces may accept the need to attack key mainland Chinese military assets directly or indirectly involved in the invasion while keeping a broader war off the table.

Escalation Responses

• Chinese Strategic Options:
  • Horizontal Escalation: Expanding the geographical reach of attacks or targeting U.S. interests abroad.
  • Challenges: Chinese military forces may be less effective beyond the immediate area of Taiwan, suffering a decline in direct military leverage.
  • Economic Leverage Attempts: China may leverage trade or investment to exert pressure on allies of Taiwan, threatening economic sanctions or actions.
  • Vertical Escalation: Using nuclear threats or attacks as a reaction to failing conventional military efforts.
  • Concerns: The invocation of nuclear threats may lead to loss of international support and provoke united backlash from the anti-hegemonic coalition.

Defensive Strategy Considerations

• Selective Strikes: Strikes on Chinese mainland targets should be carefully articulated to avoid provoking indiscriminate escalation.
• International Legitimacy: Strikes aimed at mainland targets must be framed as justifiable responses to ongoing threats and support the broader strategic goals of the coalition.
• Coalition Dynamics: A strong coalition response in face of any Chinese escalation is necessary to maintain unified support among allied nations.

Long-Term Conflict Scenarios

• Protracted War: China may opt for a long-term approach to progressively weaken Taiwan’s defenses.
• Continual Military Build-up: This scenario involves rejuvenating the PLA while attempting to undermine the resolve of Taiwan’s allies.
• Defensive Adaptations: Defenders may improve their military capabilities and readiness to counter future attempts while maintaining solid international coalitions.
• Accepting a Stalemate: Both sides may find a halt in conflict beneficial, avoiding escalation but maintaining a balance of power.

War Termination Strategy

• Persuasion vs. Coercion: The best outcome involves persuading China to cease hostilities rather than coercing terms of capitulation.
• Selective Cost Imposition: Apply pressure through targeted strikes that impact Chinese costs/benefits without overwhelming escalation, distinguishing between military and civilian targets.
• Focus on De-escalation: Offer China clear paths to de-escalate while indicating the costs of continuing aggressions, thus prompting strategic reconsideration from Chinese military leaders.

Conclusion and Implications

• Balancing Act: A multifaceted strategy of denial combined with selective cost imposition can lead to advantageous outcomes without escalating to total war.
• Long-Term Stability: The underlying goal remains to establish a balance of power in the region where Chinese hegemony is resisted without constant military confrontation or escalation beyond acceptable limits.