Introduction to the European Union – Brexit (Week 9)

UK joined EU/EEC as a late entrant and retained a more instrumental relationship with the Union compared with many peers.
Significant opt-outs: did not join Schengen; rejected Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).
The UK was less integrated with the EU than most other member states.

1975 referendum: forged by cross-actor alliance (CBI, Bishops, press); cabinet discipline relaxed; clear majority in favour.
Post-1975: UK’s position characterized by a more instrumental relationship and greater elite nervousness about public opinion and legitimation.
Key outcome: UK remained economically integrated but politically more ambivalent about deeper political/economic integration.

Conservative Party shifted its stance on Europe, aligning more closely with membership at times but facing strong Eurosceptic pressure.
Fear of UKIP and internal party tensions drove clearer preferences about EU engagement.

Euroscepticism influenced by long-standing debates within the Conservative Party and Parliament.
David Cameron called the referendum in response to Eurosceptic pressures and as part of electoral strategy after 2015 results.
2015 Conservative victory left the party with no formal coalition restraint; a referendum was pursued to settle the issue.

Leave campaign: emphasized sovereignty, control, and redirecting funds; slogans included taking back control.
Remain campaign: argued for economic and security benefits of EU membership and continued access to EU institutions.
Notable messaging included broad claims about NHS funding and budget contributions, which shaped public perception.

Overall result: $Leave \approx 51.9\%\quad Remain \approx 48.1\%$
Regional patterns:
- Scotland and London voted more to Remain (e.g., Scotland around $62.0\%$ Remain; London around $60\%$ Remain).
- Northern Ireland voted Remain, though with a narrow margin (Remain ~ $55.8\%$ ).
- Wales and several English regions voted Leave, with substantial Leave margins in the North East and Midlands.

Younger and more educated groups tended to vote more to Remain; older and less educated groups tended to vote more to Leave (demographic split patterns observed in post-referendum analyses).
Ethnicity patterns showed higher Remain support among minority ethnic groups; White British voters leaned more toward Leave.

Theresa May became PM and triggered Article 50 in $March~2017$ .
She called an early election in $2017$ to strengthen her position, which resulted in a minority government.
Negotiations (June 2017–November 2018) produced:
- Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and Political Declaration (PD) on the future relationship.
- Talks on a future trade relationship culminated in subsequent agreements.

Parliament repeatedly voted against the WA in January and March 2019.
May resigned; Boris Johnson took over and pursued a revised WA in October 2019, including the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP).
January 2020: UK formally left the EU.
The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) negotiated between March 2020 and December 2020 provided for zero quotas and zero tariffs on trade in goods between the UK and the EU, subject to rules of origin and other conditions.

The NI Protocol sought to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland by keeping Northern Ireland aligned in some respects with EU rules for goods.
The UK initially refused to implement certain provisions of the NI Protocol, leading to ongoing negotiation and tensions.

Agreement to ease customs checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Gave the UK government more control over VAT and medical regulation in NI.
Introduced the "Stormont brake": Northern Ireland Assembly can object to pause or pause/effectively pause new EU rules in certain circumstances.

Aimed at a reset of relations but with red lines: no return to free movement; no full return to single market or customs union.
Focus on security collaboration and mobility for certain activities (e.g., musicians).
EU prioritizes youth mobility; risk of external pressure from US-EU trade dynamics could influence UK choices.

Article 50: legal mechanism to begin EU withdrawal process.
Withdrawal Agreement (WA): terms of UK’s withdrawal, including the NI Protocol.
Political Declaration (PD): outline of the future EU-UK relationship.
Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA): future trade framework with zero quotas and tariffs on goods, subject to rules.
Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP): arrangement to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland, with regulatory checks in the Irish Sea.
Windsor Framework: 2023 framework to revise the NI-UK-EU relationship and introduce the Stormont brake.
Brexit outcomes: sovereignty claims, trade-offs between regulatory alignment and independence, and implications for economic and political integration.