055

America's Military Interventions

  • Patterns of Military Interventions

    • U.S. presidents have consistently tried to impose their preferences on other governments and societies rather than negotiating on equal terms.

    • An alternative approach would involve both sides making concessions:

    • The U.S. would address the preferences of the other side.

    • The other side would make concessions to help the U.S. achieve its goals.

    • Decision makers from both major political parties tend to rely on America’s military superiority to force resolutions.

Indigenous Leaders' Responses

  • Perception of Legitimacy

    • Indigenous leaders view themselves as equally legitimate as U.S. leaders.

    • Their responses often include actions that impose political and physical costs on U.S. decision makers.

    • Over time, this has altered the decision calculus within the White House.

Case Study: Iraq

  • Timeline and Context

    • Major combat operations in Iraq concluded on 05/01/2003.

    • By 2004, Iraq was entering a civil war.

  • Response to U.S. Occupation

    • Leaders and movements that the U.S. initially sought to dominate (e.g., Sunni Arab minority) began to take arms against the occupation.

    • The civil war involved various groups including ex-Ba'athists and former soldiers in Saddam’s military.

    • The early actions of U.S. occupation cut off the Sunni minority, pushing them into political marginalization.

    • Tensions rose as Iraqis struggled to meet basic needs while armed groups began controlling resources and enforcing local laws.

  • Ethnic Fragmentation and Competition

    • Ethnic lines in communities, especially between Shia and Sunni groups, began to fracture as competition for resources intensified.

    • This represented a shift towards a zero-sum mentality where gains by one group led to losses for another.

  • Civil War Dynamics

    • The civil war involved organized groups fighting for control within Iraq rather than spread across borders.

    • Definition of Civil War: Political scientists quantify civil wars by battle deaths, defining a civil war as having over 1,000 annual battle deaths.

  • Historical Comparisons

    • Comparative examples:

    • American Civil War resulted in 2% casualties.

    • English Civil War caused around 5% casualties.

    • War in twentieth and twenty-first century countries often sees death tolls in hundreds of thousands or more, significantly higher than casualty figures from terrorist attacks (e.g., 9/11).

Major Conflict Zones in Iraq

  • Ethnic Divisions

    • The central conflict was largely along the lines of Sunni and Shia divisions, including Kurdish groups aligned with Shias.

    • Sunni Arabs constituted about 15% of Iraq's population (approximately 3-4 million).

  • Key Location: Fallujah

    • A significant site of resistance and conflict:

    • Initial U.S. military encounters in April 2003 provoked local resistance.

Key Episodes in Fallujah:

  1. First Encounter: April 2003

    • U.S. troops entered with the aim to restore security but provoked local resistance.

    • Local residents had established a civil management council.

    • U.S. forces shot into a crowd of unarmed civilians, resulting in 17 deaths.

  2. Second Encounter: February 2004

    • After a violent jailbreak, U.S. forces returned with heightened military action.

    • This escalated conflict leading to zero-sum battles over securing the city.

  3. Third Encounter: Fall 2004

    • Another siege took place resulting in intense urban conflict, ultimately increasing casualties among both civilians and militants.

Armed Resistance to U.S. Occupation

  • Definition of Insurgency

    • The term 'insurgent' is subjective, often labeling those opposing legitimate government as insurgents.

    • U.S. policymakers often referred to those resisting occupation as the Iraqi insurgency, although many were local Iraqis.

  • Zarqawi’s Influence

    • Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian militant, played a key role in radicalizing the conflict in Iraq after the U.S. invasion.

    • He was known for his brutal methods and created a militant group that merged with Al Qaeda to form "Al Qaeda in Iraq".

  • Local Response

    • Most local Sunnis did not support Zarqawi’s radical agenda and fought primarily for practical reasons such as economic survival rather than ideology.

Political Developments Post Invasion

  • Simultaneous Elections During Civil War

    • Iraqis participated in elections in 2005 amidst ongoing civil violence, which resulted in a political shift towards Shia representation in government.

  • Rise of Nouri al-Maliki

    • Nouri al-Maliki, a Shia politician, became Prime Minister in April 2006 amid rising sectarian tensions.

    • His governance increasingly marginalized Sunni interests, further exacerbating resistance from Sunni groups.

  • Significant Violence and Sectarian Conflict

    • The bombing of the Al-Askari Shrine on 02/22/2006 intensified sectarian violence across Iraq, highlighting the depth of the civil war and shattering any remaining illusions of stability based on past governance.